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adambr2

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Everything posted by adambr2

  1. adambr2
    Law has Ortiz at 79, Hader at 71, Erceg at 70, and Clark at 67.
  2. adambr2
    If you compare contract, position, and age, yes he does. In no universe would we be able to do the same deal with the Dodgers for Braun, straight up. 76M is way more than 16M. 76M is a huge problem for the Dodgers. Too often, maybe because it's not our money, we seem to distance ourselves mentally from financial implications on trade value. Money has an enormous affect on trade value.
  3. adambr2
    Scooter has about an identical amount of PAs the last 3 years as Forsythe, so lack of opportunities is not the issue. Forsythe is a much better player than Scooter both at the plate and in the field besides being far more versatile. Scooter to the Rays makes enough sense, just don't expect anything of value in return.
  4. adambr2
    Won't be DeLeon, not that he was ever coming here for Braun anyway.
  5. adambr2
    It's possible the Twins were just not that high on DeLeon. He was never a highly touted prospect coming up. He just came out of nowhere. We'll see what they do with Dozier now. There's still enough interest for them to deal him if they want to this offseason, but his market just shrunk.
  6. adambr2
    It's basically a 2 year/16M commitment to a 2B who has been worth about 4 WAR a year since he became a full time player. Cheap contract for a team that needs to save money, and it solves the 2B problem and helps the hitting vs LHP problem with 1 guy. Good deal for the Rays, but nothing not to like about it for LA. Nothing to be disappointed about either. It doesn't close the door on a Braun deal, and DeLeon was never coming here for Braun anyway.
  7. adambr2
    I'm expecting at least one of Phillips or Clark to drop out of most Top 100 lists, if not both. That said, I think if you were to dig deeper, you'd find a ton of Brewers in the 101-200 range. Phillips if he drops, Woodruff if left off T100, Dubon, Diplan, Erceg, Cordell, Ponce, and Harrison all come to mind as guys who would be Top 200 candidates. Not that that really matters, it really starts to get subjective at that point, but it does I think speak to the depth of the system, even if it's not as top heavy as the Yankees or White Sox.
  8. adambr2
    I don't think anyone is overly concerned about 2017 when acquiring Braun. It's 2019-20 that really is hampering our ability to trade him.
  9. adambr2
    If Broxton can continue to build on what he showed in the 2nd half last year, he's no placeholder in CF, unless you mean he might just be moved out to a corner when Brinson is up, which is entirely possible.
  10. adambr2
    The occasional day off is understandable, but if Keon has a slow first 50 ABs or slow and the thing starts to become a soft platoon, I'm going to go crazy. Broxton needs a full season worth of ABs against both RHP and LHP and let's see what we have in him.
  11. adambr2
    Most teams agree that using all available information -- sabermetrics, traditional stats, and the eye test to get the best results. Think of 162 games though, per team, how many ABs and innings that is, for 30 teams. And that's just at the MLB level. Far too much data to rely solely on the eye test -- statistics are in place for a reason. Not to mention emotions often come into play when evaluating a player solely on the eye test.
  12. adambr2
    Gray just doesn't really have enough control remaining to get me excited about giving up anything of value for him. 3 years of control, and despite the hopes and unknowns on this team, 2 are very likely to be rebuilding years.
  13. adambr2
    What? The conclusion that WAR played a part in the valuation of Eaton is most certainly supported by the premises. The National aren't giving up the #3 prospect in baseball for a .284/.362/.428 slash line. I can't speak for how the Nationals weigh the data they have, but I'd be willing to bet they use all information available to them. You don't think that Eaton's WAR value came up at any point during the trade conversations, that Rick Hahn used that piece of data to his advantage to leverage his asking price? It's true that the way data is interpreted changes over time but at this point in time these are the best methods they have to evaluate the data.
  14. adambr2
    Is that how that works? I assumed that if we were paying say, $30M of Braun's remaining deal, the Dodgers would only have to pay the tax on the remaining $46M for a total of $69M. If they have to pay on the full $76M then an extra 50% would cost $114M and the $30M of relief would still leave them owing $84M, so it'd be much more advantageous to the Dodgers it we just took B Mac.
  15. adambr2
    If you're suggesting that Lucroy alone would have netted Brinson and Ortiz I would have to disagree. Stearns has a stated preference not to package guys except when absolutely necessary. If we hypothetically had 2 offers from Texas, Option A being Lucroy for Brinson and Ortiz and Option B being Jeffress for Cordell, I'd be willing to bet the house that we would have taken Option A and declined B without hesitation. Jeffress was a necessary piece to get what we did. If I had to try to break the trade down in terms of who netted what even though it isn't really possible, I would say that Lucroy for Brinson and Cordell, and Jeffress for Ortiz is a lot closer to where the trade values lined up.
  16. adambr2
    McCarthy really is just in the deal to offset some of Braun's deal. To be honest I think this deal is more likely / realistic than the ones throwing around DeLeon or other top prospects. Not many are going to like it but if a Braun deal brings back Puig, I think it's highly likely Puig is the centerpiece of the deal. Brewers would be better.off eating a bit of Braun's contract than having to take McCarthy. I wouldn't do that one either way If you have to take back 30M either way what's the difference? May as well take the player and hope for enough of a rebound to either be useful for the team or good enough to dump some of his salary later. There's no difference between eating 30M and taking on a 30M dollar player and just releasing him so there's no risk in taking the player.
  17. adambr2
    Just because I haven't seen it mentioned yet, Torres got $2.175M. For whatever reason, I could have sworn that Nelson was arby eligible this year, but not til 2018, apparently. Anderson filed at $2.85M and the Brewers offered $2.45M.
  18. adambr2
    McCarthy really is just in the deal to offset some of Braun's deal. To be honest I think this deal is more likely / realistic than the ones throwing around DeLeon or other top prospects. Not many are going to like it but if a Braun deal brings back Puig, I think it's highly likely Puig is the centerpiece of the deal.
  19. adambr2
    Yeah, plenty of the big pieces Stearns has acquired are righty (Brinson, Broxton, Cordell.you could also count Villar). It's great that we're adding left handed talent, but I don't think we're targeting them specifically at the expense of just looking for the best talent.
  20. adambr2
    Yeah when comparing arby payers it really only works if the service time is comparable. There are also rules about how much their salary can be reduced in arbitration, so arbitration salaries very rarely decline from one year to the next regardless of performance. Dave Bush incredibly got $4.2M+ in arbitration from us after a 6.38 ERA season, which makes you wonder why he was tendered in the first place.
  21. adambr2
    As a side note since we are pontificating the philosophical values held by the baseball operations staff, one thing that I would be intrigued to learn more about is what attributes the Brewers valued most highly when they acquired Keon Broxton? Broxton has the potential to be a significant scouting win for the Brewers, and I am curious to what extent they targeted him, and why exactly? In regard to the ZiPS projections you mentioned too, I always keep open minded about projections but some of them seem far too pessimistic even for me. I would be shocked if Broxton and Villar combine for 2 WAR as they project. A 1.7 WAR for Braun would be a massive disappointment and turn him into a trade liability. On another note on Broxton the Fans projections have him at a whopping 4.1 vs. the 1 that Steamer has him at. Usually the fans ones are on the optimistic side but not to that major of an extent. Shows how tough Keon is to project this year.
  22. adambr2
    You use a hypothetical return for Braun that no one knows the full details of and might not even be available at all anymore to downplay the significance of WAR in trade negotiations, but fail to mention someone like Adam Eaton whose trade value was clearly influenced by his high WAR. WAR isn't the end all be all and no one claims it to be but it very obviously does play a factor in trade negotiations, and tells a lot more complete picture about a player than a BA/OBP/OPS slash line. The shot at MLBtraderumors is also kind of weird as pretty much every writer on there has gone on record to say things like 'Braun is still a very good hitter and the Brewers aren't going to just give him away'. No doubt Braun's limited no trade market plays a factor in his negotiations but there are other factors involved as well, it's not just that one thing. I have no idea what your point on Villar is -- he isn't going to bring back a DeLeon+a very good prospect right now, if he did that would be a pretty obvious match for the Brewers to consider right now. Of course if they knew he would replicate his success for another few years, but they don't know, just like no one knows if Broxton will replicate his success from the 2nd half of 2016, and no one knew if Nelson would continue his April-June success from 2016 to the rest of the year.
  23. adambr2
    I've said it too many times on here how people ignore the defensive side of the ball far too often. Great defensive teams don't require a great rotation/pen. They shrink the field and allow their pitchers to attack hitters so they can go to work. It's why Stearns has targeted CFs and SSs - they cover the most ground, are athletic and have strong arms. They have a skill set that allows for versatility. Even guys like Shaw, while he has areas he needs to improve and wasn't a "sexy" acquisition, he'll hit for a decent BA/OBP with 20HR+ and play very good defense at a position that was needed. Dubon doesn't hit for power but he does everything else well. Brinson, Cordell, Ray, Diaz (2b), Erceg all play above average or better defensively with power and speed. As does Phillips. He targets specific profiles that lend to versatility allowing for better, more skilled athletes to be on the field at the same time I've been guilty of undervaluing defense myself in the past, but you may be on to something here. Best rated defensive team in MLB in 2016? Cubs. 2015? Royals. In fact the Royals have been making a living off great defense for awhile. It's not an exact science, there are good defense teams that are bad teams overall and vice versa, but in general there's a strong correlation between defense and winning. I agree Stearns' acquisitions seem to fit a pattern and he's doing this all the right way. I think the move to 2nd for Villar this year is in part with D in mind.
  24. adambr2
    I believe you can. I think that's what happened with Cespedes in New York.
  25. adambr2
    http://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/1/11/14238536/brewers-greg-holland-rumors Brewers have interest in Greg Holland, who was one of the best closers in the game when healthy, but is coming back from TJ surgery. Holland wants a 2 year deal with an opt out after 1. It'd be much more ideal if he'd take a 2 year deal, or even a 1 with a large team option and buyout. I'm sure if their interest in him is genuine it's probably as a sign and flip candidate.
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