adambr2
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Everything posted by adambr2
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Well at 6-8 he's already played 80+% of the season snaps, assuming no injuries.
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My guess is just no urgency. We knew the Jets had no Plan B and they knew we didn't have other suitors and weren't going to bring him back. So there was no reason for anyone to panic buy or panic sell a month ago. With the draft so close, the urgency was there. We didn't want to lose out on a top 45 pick this year and the Jets knew if we didn't get a pick this year this would get a lot harder to get done and we'd no longer have much of a timeline to not want to drag our feet.
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I expected the pick next year to be conditional, but I expected more difficult conditions to receive a 1st. Something like a 3rd, but a 2nd if Rodgers plays in 65% of the snaps, and a 1st if he wins the division or plays in the conference championship. There's no reason the Packers won't get an extra 1st in 2024 barring injury. Great deal.
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Freaking out over Rodgers saying he was "90% retired" before he went on the retreat is a cop out. It's Aaron Rodgers, he just says stuff. I don't believe for a second that Rodgers was 90% committed to retiring now and forfeiting 60 million before he went into his retreat. The man is 39, the possibility always exists that he won't be long for the NFL.
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Given Gute's track record with 3rds I have basically no interest in those, especially late. 49ers are one of the best in the league with or without Rodgers so I'd venture that hypothetical 24 1st is very late. I'd speculate Gute would prefer to get some help now to kick off the Love era and get a low 40s pick and some additional capital next year.
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I suspect the 49ers involvement is much ado about nothing. I think the price is set and known to both the Packers and Jets and basically a done deal that just isn't going to become official until draft day or close to the draft as a matter of tactical preference for both. Not buying that the 49ers interest is anything more than media driven speculation. The 49ers also don't have anything other than a boatload of late 3rds this year, which would make them a pretty horrendous trade partner anyway. Its the Jets. IMO, it's going to be one of the Jets 2nds and something else next year, probably another 2nd, and the only matter of dramatics is whether or not and how likely that 2nd next year can become a 1st.
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Hard sell
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I thought Logan Paul was kind of a joke when he started doing WWE stuff, but he belongs.
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Not that I'm complaining, but how come when I was a kid you had to cough up big bucks for any WWE pay-per-view, especially Wrestlemania, and now any chump with a 4.99 a month Peacock subscription can watch Live?
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No, I know he cleared and we still have him. Just still feels like the end of an era that never happened of a guy that I thought would anchor our offense for a decade.
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I don't think you can be outrighted without being DFAed? Not 100% sure on that. All I meant to point out, even though I understand he remains with the organization, is that it feels like the end of an era that never was with Hiura. A few years ago I thought he was going to be a mainstay in this lineup for years, but I was very mistaken. If only our offense had the Hiura and Yelich we thought we had 3 years ago, who knows where the fortunes of this organization would be. EDIT: Oops sorry, back to the Packers 😅
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He was in fact DFA'ed, and I understand he was also outrighted after his DFA. https://apnews.com/article/mlb-brewers-voit-varland-turang-9aad51e45978d726cb3cd45dd8b430c8
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That we DFAed Keston Hiura :(
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It doesn't surprise me that we asked for #13. It also doesn't surprise me that we never really had a chance of getting it.
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I think the 24 1st will be conditional. So if they suck, chances are the pick doesn't end up being a 1st. If Gute can get a guaranteed 1st, fantastic but conditional with a reasonable chance of it becoming a 1st seems a lot more likely to me.
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Gute has already basically conceded that we aren't insisting on #13. I don't really know why we are even speculating on it anymore. Now, a 24 1st seems reasonably possible if the conditions are as reasonable as the last article suggests (Jets host a divisional playoff game or make the AFCCG), so get ready to cheer for the Jets in 2023.
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https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-packers-jets-discussing-2-high-draft-picks-in-aaron-rodgers-trade-but-stuck-on-2024-protections-034812507.html
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I think we'll get conditional piece(s). By heading both directions do you mean the Jets are asking to get something back from us if Rodgers were to retire? I agree that would be a silly request and I doubt it's being asked of us.
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I don't think that contingencies are unreasonable in a case like this. The return for Favre was entirely contingency-based. I'd be happy to at least get the guaranteed 2nd in this case, and a chance at another high pick in '24 and/or '25. I think that's reasonable compensation. An additional 2nd would be gravy. Insisting on their 2023 1st is futile. They'll continue to wait and in a month it won't be there for us to insist on and we'll have lost all chances at any 2023 compensation. Gute isn't going to tell them to pound sand when he has absolutely no good alternatives to not getting the deal done. The deal will get done.
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If they're insisting on #13 than there's no guns to stick to after the draft, they just don't get it. Their '24 pick could be anywhere and I presume all parties are projecting it to be later than 13, probably in the 20s. Only way I can see it makes sense to wait until after is if Gute has a good feel that the Jets will be pretty amenable to making it a '24 1st with it being so far away and assuming they'll pick late. If that's the idea, I'd be fine with it. Otherwise, they almost certainly lose value waiting.
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Douglas not trying to leverage the Lamar trade request against the Packers.
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They can ask for whatever they want. They just won't get it. He's 39. He's owed a ton of money, there's no guarantee he's more than a 1 year stopgap, and he took a pretty big step back last season from 2021 and 2020. There also isn't a multi-team bidding war going on for him. There's a plethora of reasons that his trade market isn't a guaranteed 1st, it is about more than just his career body of work. Can you name one 39 year old or older player in NFL history that was traded for a 1st round pick?
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My assumptions: Gute is saying we need #13, Jets are saying no way, so we wait. We aren't getting #13. Frankly, the Jets would be dumb to give us #13. All they have to do is wait us out another month and we'll shut up about #13 and they'll still get their guy. We don't have any other trade partners and it's not like we're going to just walk away if this doesn't get done by May. Gute doesn't want it to get to that point, because he'll want '23 draft capital. So this gets done either just prior to the draft, or even during the draft, when Gute runs out of time to wait. Final deal something along the line of '23; 2nd '24: Conditional 3rd, becomes 2nd if the Jets make the playoffs and 1st if they make the Super Bowl. '25: Conditional 4th, becomes 3rd if Rodgers plays in '24, 2nd if he plays and the Jets make the playoffs, 1st if he plays and they make the Super Bowl.
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I personally think it's silly to think either side has any kind of clear advantage or leverage. The Packers want to move on from Rodgers and the Jets want Rodgers. Neither side wants their current situation to be the status quo in August, so it just comes down to who is going to be more stubborn. I'd like it if Murphy, Gute, Woody and Douglas were to meet in person for a few days and go to bargaining until this gets done. It would be a disservice to Love to have this distraction and elephant in the room throughout camps as he prepares for next season.
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https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-betting-odds-say-packers-are-now-worst-team-in-nfc-north-by-a-healthy-margin-160950653.html I think we'll surprise some people. I think 9-8 and a playoff berth is a reasonable possibility. Maybe even compete for the division. My biggest frustration is why we have continued to stand by arguably the worst defensive coordinator in football with a talented defense.
