adambr2

I try to stay guarded and prepared for every negative possible outcome as a Wisconsin sports fan. I let my guard down in the NFCCG. I really thought we were going to the Super Bowl. I really think we're going to be hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy tomorrow, too. But until it actually happens there will always be a nagging little voice telling me that we are going to catastrophically blow it.

His median trade value was listed at 26.0 the day the trade was made and is listed at 26.8 currently. So a very modest rise so far. Right, but I'm sure there was an initial drop of some kind and the regaining of the value since then has been in response to his performance. Still likely he is undervalued and it will continue to climb.

I never understood why people (not referring to RRB here, just in general), become upset when an adjustment is made to a player's perceived trade value based on the results of an actual trade. It is essentially the same as any free market system. When the results of an actual transaction are less (or more) than an estimated book value, there is an adjustment to that book value in response. It is not about being right or wrong. It is a correction to blue book value as a result of real world data.

Don't want to derail a thread about Adames, but Cots says "20:$575,200, 21:$1M, 22:$2.25M, 23:$3.5M, 24:$5.5M, 25:$8M club option ($1.5M buyout), 26:$8M club option (no buyout)" for Peralta's contract. If '25 and '26 are pure team options, that changes things, and could turn out to be one of the best contract extensions a team has ever signed. Goes to show how much discount a team gets when they offer extensions to players when they are in their pre-arby years. The Peralta deal reminds me a lot of the Lucroy deal. Not structured exactly the same but also extremely team friendly.

You can't just take super team friendly deals you make up in your head and compare them to actual deals signed by players and say they're better. Of course they are, but that has nothing to do with anything. If Adames is signing an extension at this point you'll probably have to pay him a market rate into his mid 30s. It would be like trying to sign Freddy to that deal right now after he's already an all star. Not gonna happen. You don't pay free agent market rates when guys are years away from free agency. Not how it works. If it did, the Yelich extension would have been even more expensive on a per year basis than what it was. Of course you can take potential deals and compare them to actual deals. That's how the markets are set in the first place. Adames has no long-term security at this point. Some guys value that security and are willing to take a little bit less to lock that in now and insure themselves against a major injury or bust. Some guys would rather wait for free agency and shoot for the moon. Every individual is different. It doesn't hurt to inquire with Adames and his agent. The fact that you think Adames has already proven too much to get him for a discount in the 5 to 6 year area and another guy thinks he hasn't shown enough to do that should be proof enough that the truth is somewhere in the middle.

Probably not. Narvaez is a high end catcher who plays almost every day anyway, so the backup catcher here has a minimal affect on our bottom line. Pina has less than 100 ABs in 2021. Much of his poor performance offensively is likely just small sample variation and not necessarily what we should expect going forward. Worth pointing out that Brewer pitching has given up a meager 2 runs or less in 10 out of Pina's last 12 starts. Could be partially coincidence, but probably not all coincidence. I would be more concerned with any potential disruption to our pitching staff over a few dozen ABs between now and the end of the season.

I agree that Adames is exactly the kind of guy they should be looking to extend now. Something like Peralta (in structure, not necessarily in $$) is what I'd be looking for, where we buy out arbitration and a couple years of free agency in the form of a couple team options. Obviously, the interest has to be mutual, and Adames has to be willing to sacrifice a little bit of money in the interests of long-term security. But if he is, I absolutely love these kinds of deals much more than significant decade long investments in outfielders who have already reached their prime. I don't understand how people rip the Yelich extension but then also want to rush to extend a player like Adames. The team extended an MVP caliber player not even a 2 years ago and that deal already looks like it might not be favorable, but now we should try to hurry up and extend a guy who has posted 2 months of good play?? Don't get me wrong, I absolutely love what Adames brings to this team and if his play so far as a Brewer is an indication of how he is going to play into the future, then hell, I would love for him to be a Brewer for life. But let's maybe have a little patience here before committing to anything long term. There were similar posts regarding Hiura in 2019 and I think we all are happy that didn't occur. Because they are not nearly the same thing. When you make a significant investment in a player, you're hoping to pay for future performance, not past performance. Unfortunately so far in Yelich's case, it looks like we're paying for past performance. An arbitration buyout plus two FA year buyouts for Adames takes him to his age 30/31 season which is just about perfect and almost exactly what we did with Peralta. That's far different than paying Yelich after two MVP caliber years all the way into his late 30s. It's ok to wait, too, but the "wait and see" approach will cost you much more in the end. Not a chance that Freddy Peralta's deal wouldn't be significantly larger right now had we waited until now to see what happened rather than taken the shot that he could be the guy he is now. Sometimes it's ok to just take the shot on the talent before it's all the way there too, and Adames always had the talent for this. At least when you whiff on a deal like this, as opposed to a deal like Yelich, it isn't crippling.

He's arguing that the winner is "to be determined". Yes, it looked bad for the Brewers for awhile. But that lopsidedness has sense faded considerably as Urias heats up and Lauer continues to look useful. No one here is calling the deal a surefire win for the Brewers, at least not yet. But plenty of said that the Brewers were raked over the coals on the deal. That take doesn't appear to be correct, either. I would like to point out though that even if we do "win" the trade in the end, that doesn't mean that San Diego didn't "win" as well. Grisham is obviously great, and Davies had a fantastic season for them which had value, and they helped parlay that into Darvish as well which definitely has value. I suppose if both teams can come out of this with something that made them better in the end, that's really what you want in a trade.

Hiura substituting for Grisham would look pretty fantastic right now....but who woulda known. We all would have hated that at the time.

The Padres absolutely destroyed us in that deal. I know people want to say "let's just wait", but...realistically . That's going to look like a loss now or 3 years from now. I know you don’t want to be called out but I just saw this and it happened to just be your post. I think this is a great time the point out that trades take time to decide winners and losers. Urias looks great in his new role and Lauer has continued to improve and give us some very good outings. Grisham is a good ball player and could’ve helped us, no doubt. But this is far from a win by the Padres. I’m pretty happy with the trade. Urias is one of my favorite Brewers. Nah, I don't mind being called out in a vacuum. If I'm wrong I'll own it, happens all the time, in regards to the Adames trade I just felt like it appeared on the surface that I hated the Adames trade when I think it is clear I didn't. On the Grisham trade, no doubt I've been adamant that this was a loss for a long time. And I definitely appear wrong about that at this point. Would still love to have Grisham, but Urias has come around so much since the Adames trade. Lauer certainly looks like a lot more than a throw-in, too. Even if he just settles in as a back end rotation guy, that has value. Early in this season when we were 50 games or so and we were under 500 and things weren't going our way there was a culmination of moves that I perceived to be bad ones in the last 2 years by Stearns (Grisham trade, Sogard signing, Garcia signing, JBJ signing, Yelich extension, etc) that made me quite frustrated with DS. On some of these, I clearly haven't been patient enough. I hope the Yelich extension is the next one I'm wrong about and that he returns to MVP (or at least high end player) form.

Everyone has bad hot takes. No one is shying away from owning their bad hot takes. The alternative to no hot takes is having no initial reaction to any significant move, whether it be "I love this, this guy is going to be a stud for years,", or "Hate it, gave up way too much". Frankly, that sounds quite boring. Frankly, I have no issue owning my own hot takes and have done so numerous times in the past. What I do have a problem with is being quoted without context. When I say a questionable bullpen just got worse, (which was incorrect, no doubt), and that is the only quote of mine used, when I in fact also said that day that there was a lot to like about Adames and listed numerous things good about him, you would assume that I was simply a reactionary who hated the trade and was wrong about it without that context, would you not?

My apologies then for misunderstanding. I agree with that point. I thought they'd miss JP and (eventually) Rasmussen sorely. They haven't. I don't know where they are even finding these guys, but they definitely seem to have a model for their bullpen builds and for the most part it's been very successful. I knew Willy Adames would be very good. Part of me was hoping the Crew could, prior to 2018, deal a package centered around Arcia for him I always knew the price would be high, and Rasmussen being dealt was something that stung a bit - as I felt he could be a right-handed version of the 2018-2019 Josh Hader - and the visions in my head of the two of them filling that role for Williams, an extended Knebel, or a re-signed Jeffress as the closer were quite nice, indeed. But Adames has been an MVP-type talent, and I think the Crew needs to work up an extension sooner, rather than later. I agree that Adames is exactly the kind of guy they should be looking to extend now. Something like Peralta (in structure, not necessarily in $$) is what I'd be looking for, where we buy out arbitration and a couple years of free agency in the form of a couple team options. Obviously, the interest has to be mutual, and Adames has to be willing to sacrifice a little bit of money in the interests of long-term security. But if he is, I absolutely love these kinds of deals much more than significant decade long investments in outfielders who have already reached their prime.

Dumb question, but if we win the division as the 2 seed, do we automatically get the 3 seed, presumably the East winner? That's potentially a far better matchup than the wild card winner, which could put us in the weird position of NOT wanting to win the top overall seed.

My apologies then for misunderstanding. I agree with that point. I thought they'd miss JP and (eventually) Rasmussen sorely. They haven't. I don't know where they are even finding these guys, but they definitely seem to have a model for their bullpen builds and for the most part it's been very successful.

Brewers bullpen through 5/21: 113 ERA- | 117 FIP- Brewers bullpen after 5/21: 70 ERA- | 90 FIP- Somehow the trade improved our offense by around 1.35 runs per game & also improved our bullpen ERA by about 43%. Starting to think Stearns & company are practitioners of the dark arts or something. Yeah, Stearns & Co. are good at what they do. I think they value one or two core bullpen pieces and other than that are good with a bunch of dart throws for a position that can be quote volatile. Indeed, they have outperformed my expectations considerably and they should be commended. Guys like Jake Cousins have performed better than I could have ever imagined. It was a bad take, and I certainly own it. Is it this enjoyable to find bad hot takes to bump and embarrass folks with them with a touch of wit and sarcasm? Because it seems so lately. I also said the following on that day, but I guess this one wouldn't be nearly as much fun to bump. "there's a lot to like about Adames. He is 25, has had a pretty good career so far, was a top 100 prospect and is controllable. Maybe we just felt the value was too good to pass on."

Am I crazy for thinking that a Bucks NBA Championship, a Brewer World Series and a Packer Super Bowl all happening within a span of 8 months is not totally Twilight Zone impossible? Obviously the chances of all 3 happening are remote, and let's get one first, but God knows we deserve a stretch like that.

The time to go to the pen was probably before the Taylor AB. A little late now. Not that I'm complaining.

I love me a 2 out, 2 RBI single. When it's for our side, anyway.

They sure have. Yelich has been something too, just in a much different way.

Gotta protect with the bases loaded and 2 strikes. Not a great AB by Taylor.

For sure, although I can see my 4 year old self back in 1986 finding it pretty disturbing.

Never heard of it. Who sang it? All I see is Chuck Berry and Lou Reed. Lou Reed.

Thank you so much for not saying "exercise the demons". Budd has been fine, and having been a lightning rod of our criticisms, is deserving of our commendations. Agreed 100%. Well, 99%. I'll wait til the series is over before I say 100.

What a huge win. Two big comebacks....and ...the Bucks. Good day.

We really do not have anyone else?.