adambr2

There we go, get the failed RISP hitting out of the way early.

Yeah, but hasn't McCarthy said several times the reason he didn't go for 2 there was he didn't have the WR'ers available? Janis had just caught two Hail Marry's(and was a brutal route runner) and they were down to I think him and Abbrederis. Analytics don't always take factors like that into the equation. I never heard him say that, but maybe he did. I don't really buy that if that's his explanation, though. If you want to argue that your chances are converting are less than they would be at full strength, sure, I agree, but you still have 11 professional football players. They had Lacy. They had TEs. A QB draw or HB draw is a possibility. They had options. Besides, those are the same guys you are going to be down to for OT as well. You can't convert one play for 2 yards but expect to drive 80 yards in OT for the win instead? Either way, I seriously doubt MM would have had the stones to try the 2 even if he was at full strength.

I don't think they were a 1 seed in the year they lost to Denver because I specifically remember them winning the NFC championship in San Francisco. Post Super Bowl 2011 when they went 15-1 and lost to the Giants would be the other besides the '96-97 Super Bowl winner.

A little more clarity on the meeting with Giannis and Horst the other day. https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29885281/sources-bucks-tell-giannis-antetokounmpo-spend-build-him

Since I brought up the Janis catch game and we are talking about analytics I'd like to use that as an example to show that analytics in many cases is really not that intimidating and should be easily understood by an NFL coach -- it doesn't take a math genius. To estimate the probability of winning the game if you go for 2 after Janis' Hail Mary catch, all you need to know is the success rate of one event happening -- converting. It's an all or nothing proposition. Obviously the success rate of the 2 pointer fluctuates from year to year, but in 2018 and 2019 it averaged 49.4%. Even though I would prefer to round up because this percentage includes false attempts and thus is really likely over 50% (kneeldowns, botched XP snaps), I will round down to 49% for conservatism. So if MM goes for 2 there, he has a 49% chance of winning. To estimate the probability of winning the game by kicking the extra point, you need two independent events to both occur -- you must successfully convert the extra point and then win in overtime. The success rate of the XP is about 94% since it was moved back to the 33. Now, you have to figure out the odds of winning in OT. Winning in OT on the road in the playoffs is tough -- I can't recall the Packers doing it in the Rodgers era with numerous chances. But obviously, that doesn't mean it's 0. But, it's obviously not a 50/50 proposition, either. With the average home team win rate being just a bit under 60% (though that number is higher in the postseason), I will again be very conservative and say the Packer have a 45% chance of winning if that game goes to OT, which it did. So the independent chance of winning that game by going for the XP is 42.3% (45 * .94), (but in reality, it's probably a good deal lower). The chances of winning by going for 2 are 49%. Obviously, there is some subjectivity to the numbers here, but the process and formula is correct. There really isn't a logical argument that can be made that going for 1 there gives you a better chance of winning than going for 2. So there you have it. Mike McCarthy willingly lowered his chances of winning a divisional playoff game by 7% because he knew he would be seriously second-guessed if the still 51% chance that he would miss the 2 happened. And obviously, he's not alone. Let's be smarter, NFL, and NFL media.

I can't understand why it has taken so long for analytics to catch up to the NFL. NFL coaches have literally been defying math. Imagine if you told a coach of any sport, "Option A gives you a 62% chance of winning this game. If you choose Option B, your chances go down to 53%." You'd have to be crazy to pick B, right? Yet that's exactly what actual paid professional head coaches have been doing for years. I still remember begging my TV screen for Mike McCarthy to go for 2 when Jeff Janis came down with the Hail Mary in the divisional round against the Cardinals and watching helplessly as Crosby trotted out onto the field.

This is one of the reasons I think we need to take the universal view of our farm system as hot garbage (thanks Brett Anderson) with a grain of salt. I understand Burnes and Woodruff had some prospect notoriety but I think both have surpassed expectations of in terms of where their true upside resides. I'm sure the Braves would love to have Woodruff and Burnes in their rotation, rather than the hot garbage their vaunted and overly-hyped minor league system has produced. Like Max Fried, Mike Soroka and Ian Anderson? I would gladly take that hot garbage off their hands. Toussaint has been a disappointment, but you're going to have some of those in any system both as position players and pitchers. I'm fairly certain Orlando Arcia was a top 10 prospect in all of baseball at one time.

As an aside, I know there's a long ways to go, but the contrast in which the NFL has better handled the COVID-19 situation compared to MLB is just startling. The NFL managed to put 17K fans in a stadium for their opening game. MLB has been fanless the entire time and still almost lost their entire season in the opening week. I also was personally surprised to find out that at least for me, lack of fans had zero impact on my perception of the game. I thought the NFL experience would be most affected by lack of fans. If I didn't know they weren't there I probably wouldn't have even noticed.

Basically to me every game is neutral site right now. Overall this is basically the exact same team as last year. Adams is awesome and Jones is good but not really any other weapons for Rodgers other than that, so we live and die by how well #12 plays. I realize that MVS and Lazard had nice statistical days, but that was really just a product of how awesome AR was today rather than anything special that those two did on offense. Defense can't stop the run, pretty good secondary except when they go into prevent mode. It's almost a carbon copy of 2019. Which, they did win 13 games last year so that's not the worst thing in the world. I'm just not sure it'll be good enough again when we face a true elite opponent.

This has been one of the least enjoyable Brewer teams to watch in recent memory. I'm not even sure I'd want to watch them beyond 60 games. Devin Williams and Corbin Burnes have been fun to watch. That's literally it.

I can't help but think that this is the universe's karma for Counsell putting Sogard back in the starting lineup for one day.

The Cubs have thrown 2 no-hitters at Miller Park. The Brewers have thrown 0.

They're all tested before the game. I don't know that it's that big of a deal. In reality, it's probably not. It's just not great optics. Or it's great to see some normalcy, depending on how one looks at it.

Swift drops the game winning touchdown. Lions gonna Lion.

I guess we are still doing handshakes and maskless meet and greets after games.

We saw this late garbage defense so often last year and acted like it wasn't an issue -- until it became one.

Rodgers and Adams are just putting on an absolute clinic today.

I absolutely hate watching this defense protect a big lead in any game.

I love the offense today, but the presnap timeouts continue to be absurd. Now we can't even challenge a play in the last quarter.

You watch your tongue. Smashmouth is awesome. :D

Can we please not do the fold in the 4th quarter thing that we like to do sometimes?

Davante Adams is so good. The guy is going to put up insane numbers if he stays healthy. And Rodgers looks sharp today. If this is the guy we get all season we have a chance.

That was a tougher catch, but MVS is an absolute butterfingers.

MVS. Gotta make that catch. That's literally a turnover.

This team just cannot stop the run.