adambr2
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Everything posted by adambr2
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As with anything else, we just have to keep our options open and if the right deal falls into our lap, by all means take it. But they shouldn't be afraid to say no to trading him if their price tag isn't met.
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He's AJ Hawk without the top 5 pick price tag. Thus why he was over-appreciated until this year while Hawk was always the opposite.
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You never really know what's going to happen in divisional games anyway. I certainly don't consider the Bear game a sure thing. Should win, but...
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Until proven otherwise I won't be completely convinced that Bellichick isn't just sandbagging the entire AFC. This isn't the first time this conversation has happened, New England has been pronounced dead several times over the last 5 years. They can still probably cruise to a first round bye and be one home win away from the conference championship game like always. If they go to Baltimore in January and get their lunch handed to them yes I'll he convinced the Patriot dynasty is over.
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I would say the Raptors, Celtics, and Utah games were good measuring sticks. Got the Knicks coming up tomorrow.
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Urias actually hit in the minors. Arcia for the most part did not.
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Interesting that we've won two NY6 bowls since the CFP system started and neither one was the Rose. We won the Cotton Bowl and the Orange Bowl. For years it was Rose or nothing as far as B10 major bowls.
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To be fair I think they were better than a 6-7 win team the last two years too.
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You can get away with choking away a 1st and goal from the 1 and pulling a rabbit out of your hat on 3rd and 17 against a garbage team like the Giants. Won't get that play against the 49ers or Saints.
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What a gift call. Why does Rodgers insist on forcing it to Adams or throwing deep on 3rd and short to medium?
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We are going to do just little enough to let them hang around, aren't we?
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Sure, that would have been the matchup. It also would have shown the hilarity of how bad the BCS system was since an unbeaten defending champ would have been left out of the title game.
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I don't know who else they are going to take. Maybe PSU. I think whichever one of Wisconsin or PSU doesn't get the Rose Bowl invite will still get a NY6 bowl. Probably the Orange.
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Whenever I hear a commercial for Habush Habush and Rottier, I wonder what happened to Davis.
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I wouldn't put it as absolute zero, but I would put it a lot less than the 35% from projection models. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/ Oregon winning the Pac 12 isn't nearly enough. OSU and LSU are in -- look at their overall resumes and dominant wins. There just isn't anything they can do next week to play themselves out of it. Georgia is in with a win and probably the Oklahoma/Baylor winner assuming Oregon wins. You would need a Virginia win over Clemson which is highly unlikely and then hope the committee decides that Clemson doesn't have a sufficient resume as a 1 loss. Then you still need an Oregon win and an LSU win. It's just pretty unrealistic. And to me it's hard to trust a model that puts OSU at 38% if they lose the B10 championship. OSU has clearly been a top 2 team all season and the most dominant in the country. They are not dropping out of the top 4 with a loss.
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Even though I think we'll get smoked next week, I'm glad to get another shot at OSU. Beating them would be pretty awesome. I don't expect it to result in a CFP invitation. Going to the Rose Bowl would be pretty great and hopefully that's a possibility either way.
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I understand conditional probability just fine. I'm a numbers guy. I don't know what you mean by your first sentence. I literally said OSU is making it and UW's only shot would be as a 2nd B10 team. I'm not sure you understand what we're saying. We're saying the models are wrong and OSU is in regardless of what happens next week. Go back and read the post directly before mine, where the poster spent the entire post questioning how you could think OSU would drop to 5th for Wisconsin to make it in. I’m not sure you understand that not all responses are directed at you.... Yes, I saw his post. You literally used the phrase "you guys," and then "conditional probability, guys", so I had no reason to think you were speaking directly to TPlush.
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I understand conditional probability just fine. I'm a numbers guy. I don't know what you mean by your first sentence. I literally said OSU is making it and UW's only shot would be as a 2nd B10 team. I'm not sure you understand what we're saying. We're saying the models are wrong and OSU is in regardless of what happens next week.
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Interesting, because I think the job he did as GM in 2019 to make the team competitive in the end was fantastically good. Depends on what the goal was. If it was to be competitive, then he was successful. If it was to win the WS, then the decisions he made (and a bunch of unfortunate injuries) weren’t a success. The ultimate goal is obviously always to win a WS. No one goes into a season saying "I hope we can be competitive this year." That said, win a WS seems like a pretty unfair bar to measure GM success or lack of success unless we're going to say that there is 1 successful GM and 29 unsuccessful GMs every season. I think all you can do each season is put yourself in a position to be competitive and then see what happens from there.
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Interesting read: Off season to do list - National League Central
adambr2 replied to TURBO's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Agreed with all, though I really don't think Arcia is worth much of anything in trade . -
I don't see it. It's that second loss. Are you in agreement that they aren't taking a 2 loss UW over a 1 loss OSU? If so, they've got to somehow convince the committee to take them over a potential 1 loss Utah or a 1 loss B12 team. And that's assuming that Georgia doesn't beat LSU which probably would all but assure two SEC teams going. I think they're still a lot of unlikely chaos away from even being in the conversation.
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I still they'll need help elsewhere, but if you're of the belief that the Badgers would still legitimately have playoff aspirations with a win next week, this is probably helpful. Removes the temptation for the committee to take a 1 loss non conference champ Alabama team which I definitely think was a real possibility. If you want the chance to really become real, root for a Colorado win tonight (extremely unlikely), and an Oklahoma State win (somewhat unlikely). A lot (& I mean A LOT) more chaos than that is needed for WI to make the playoff. The loss to Illinois got worse today with Northwestern beating Illinois (now 6-6). Root for Oregon to win PAC12 & derail Utah. Pray for Virginia to win the ACC over Clemson. Having LSU go down to Texas A&M helps too. Make it so SEC gets only 1 representative.. I think Clemson, OSU and LSU are as good as locked in. The 4th spot is pretty open, but the problem they're going to have even beating OSU is that the Big 12 champ is almost certainly going to have 1 loss regardless of what happens in the Pac 12. Maybe they would have a case to make it over Baylor, but I'm not certain about it.
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The 538 model lists the Badgers and Buckyes both at 42% to get in if the Badgers win next week. Makes me wonder how much of our odds they are predicating on us getting in as the sole B10 team if we win next week. If that's their thought process I would guess our chances are much less than 42%. I don't believe for one minute that the Badgers are getting in over OSU no matter what happens next week. Everyone and their mother knows that OSU is the better and more talented team regardless of what happens in the B10 championship. The committee knows it and generally wants to send the best teams regardless of conference championship status. They can easily point to OSUs earlier domination of UW and their one loss. UWs only hypothetical shot is as a 2nd B10 team, not in lieu of OSU.
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I still they'll need help elsewhere, but if you're of the belief that the Badgers would still legitimately have playoff aspirations with a win next week, this is probably helpful. Removes the temptation for the committee to take a 1 loss non conference champ Alabama team which I definitely think was a real possibility. If you want the chance to really become real, root for a Colorado win tonight (extremely unlikely), and an Oklahoma State win (somewhat unlikely).
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Look if you're not going to try to do anything with 13 seconds left, which you shouldn't be deep in your own territory, just take a knee. Nothing positive can come out of handing it to Taylor there. If he coughs it up it's a completely avoidable disaster.