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adambr2

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Everything posted by adambr2

  1. adambr2
    Fivethirtyeight runs playoff odds based on the likely outcome of each game, and they have the Badgers at 4%, so you're in the ballpark. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-college-football-predictions/ If the Badger DO manage to win out, they're at 33%. That number will move a lot depending on the next two weeks worth of outcomes, but if they somehow beat Minnesota and OSU (neither of which can be assumed, of course), there's a plausible chance. But practically? Not really. So Alabama, currently #5, IF they win out has a 19% chance of making the playoff? Even though they're already #5, would be a 1 loss team and would beat Auburn in the meantime, they have a 19% chance of making the playoff if they win out and we have a 33% chance of making the playoff if we win out? Yeah, I call bullcrap on that.
  2. adambr2
    Again, the link I posted above does that math for you and puts their chance right now at 4%. I guess they must figure better chances of beating Minnesota or OSU than I am giving them, then. In any event, if they even make the Rose Bowl I'll be thrilled.
  3. adambr2
    I won't pretend to know what the actual odds are of UW in the playoff, but it's not hard to see how slim it really is. Figure what, probably a 90% chance of beating Purdue, 50/50 to beat Minnesota, and maybe 10% to beat OSU. That puts them at about 4.5% just for them to win out and so if you cut that by 1/3rd it's 1.5%. So I suppose they have a chance in the same way Lloyd Christmas does.
  4. adambr2
    Perez coming off TJ surgery may not be the Perez of old. Even then his OBP since 2014: .289/.280/.288/.297/.274....He does hit some HRs, but Pina gets on base more. Imo he doesn't solve anything and the deal prevents any meaningful pitching solutions. I also don't think KC would even consider the deal since they have turned down some pretty substantial offers for Merrifield alone. Perez has negative value. Not positive. That's why he was in the proposal, even if KC is unlikely to want to sacrifice any of Whit's value to dump him.
  5. adambr2
    All that, to me, is the definition of a .33 chance. Sure, .33%. Not 33%.
  6. adambr2
    I think what I liked least about Yelich's reply was the fact that a full 90 minutes earlier, Darvish followed up his original message with a tweet that literally said "But that doesn't mean the Brewers are stealing signs." So he had already clarified it and that was a great opportunity for Yelich to just ignore it and walk away. Or do what Donaldson did and make a joke about it. Instead he took a petty shot and called a lot more attention to it than it otherwise would have gotten and made people more suspicious than they would have been.
  7. adambr2
    There is just no way to me a 2 loss Badger team has a 1/3 chance if they win out. You would need an insane set of circumstances. Auburn has to beat Bama. LSU has to win out and beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Oregon has to not win the Pac 10. There is nothing that LSU, Clemson, and OSU can realistically do at this point to play themselves out of a playoff spot. They could lose their conference championships and still will easily get as a 1 loss team over a 2 loss B10 champ. The committee doesn't value conference championships as much as they say they do. Wisconsin could blow out OSU 55-10 in the B10 Championship. The committee is still going to take who they know the better team is. Same if OSU loses to PSU and doesn't even play in the conference championship. They'll get in without it. So at best you've got one available spot and to even get that you most likely need a ton of things to go right and even then you've still most likely got a 1 loss Big 12 team that will get the nod. It's just not going to happen IMO.
  8. adambr2
    Whoops, so much for Baylor running the table. They gave it away.
  9. adambr2
    Is that how it works? Does the runner up automatically go if OSU is in the playoff? (Almost certain). Or can they pick another team from the East?
  10. adambr2
    If Baylor runs the table, they should be in the CFP, shouldn't they?
  11. adambr2
    It's a pitiful proposal for the Royals. The fatal flaw is the idea that the Royals would be desperate to dump Perez but they are not. He is loved by the fan base and is well regarded by the organization. They have run a 140 million payroll in the past, could easily operate at the 100 million level and are currently projected to sit at 76 million for 2020 so there is zero motivation for them to discount Merrifield in order to move Perez's salary. If Merrifield hits the market there would be at least 10 teams that would make offers that would more than double the value of the Brewers offer in this proposal. I don't think they'd actually take it, either, for the reasons you stated, but it's not a bad proposal for the Royals. Perez is overrated and overpaid, there's a reason he's pegged for that much negative value by the trade site. Just because he is loved by the fan base does not increase his actual value. I agree that they can get better offers without dumping Perez, but I definitely disagree that there's going to be 10 teams offering trades of 50M or more or surplus value-- very much doubt that. They've already made Merrifield available before his extension and no one met their asking price.
  12. adambr2
    Minnesota getting it back with 2 minutes left. TD wins it.
  13. adambr2
    How about this one? [attachment=0]20191116_180046.jpg[/attachment]
  14. adambr2
    That was also a ridiculously stupid hit after the play on 4th down if that's who they called it on. He could have cost his team a turnover on downs and potentially 7 points.
  15. adambr2
    Sure, but he's going to be way more expensive than people realize. You'd need to have multiple solid trade chips to have a chance of getting it done without a major one and even then I doubt the Royals do it. Would have to start with a bid of say, Burnes + Turang + Grisham.
  16. adambr2
    I don't think anyone got "owned". It wasn't a great look for either side. It comes off as accusatory from Darvish and it was a silly response by Yelich. I like Yelich's dialogue with Cody Bellinger after Bellinger won MVP a lot better.
  17. adambr2
    Nice offensive half there.
  18. adambr2
    Ever since the 4th quarter of the Illinois game, it's like a completely different defense. And not in a good way.
  19. adambr2
    If Yelich truly thought Darvish meant ill with his comment, I would have liked his reply a lot better if he had just left it at the first 4 words. The last 5 kind of come off as salty especially when Darvish pretty much dominated the Brewers this season. Only Yu knows what Yu meant, and likewise, only Yelich knows if his response was intended to be a funny rib or if he was genuinely pissed -- sure comes off as the latter to me. Donaldson's was funny. End of the day it doesn't need to be a huge deal, though.
  20. adambr2
    Absolutely. Whether we get blown out again by OSU or not it would be fun if the axe game is for a spot in the B10 Championship game and not just bragging rights.
  21. adambr2
    Just as importantly, need an Iowa win.
  22. adambr2
    I mean, I think the guy who gave a vote to Kevin Pillar is a dope, if that's what you're getting at.
  23. adambr2
    So did Yelich. Yes, Yelich was the best last year but that knee injury hurt any chance he had at winning it, unfortunately. Those writers are dopes IMO. Again, why? There were two really great players with very little separation between them and one had to come in 1st and one had to come in 2nd.
  24. adambr2
    This rumor has gotten way too much in the way of legs. I hate the Patriots with the best of them, but that's an extreme accusation to make if there isn't the evidence to back it up. https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/robert-kraft-sex-work-trafficking-florida-823153/ Thanks for that article. I was under the impression the charges were dropped because the evidence was gathered incorrectly. However, it seems like the warrant was obtained on false pretenses. Likely an overzealous police department or DA. I’m not one to call for heads to roll, but I hope someone loses their job for dragging these people through the mud. I really don’t care what happens between consenting adults, provided both parties are truly consenting. No problem! Don't get me wrong, Kraft is still most likely a dirty old man. But I agree, as long as everyone is truly there under their own free will, what do I care.
  25. adambr2
    This rumor has gotten way too much in the way of legs. I hate the Patriots with the best of them, but that's an extreme accusation to make if there isn't the evidence to back it up. https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/robert-kraft-sex-work-trafficking-florida-823153/
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