RightFieldCoder

There must be an incentive clause for having 600 AB's. That move makes no sense.

We need to save our bullpen for tomorow when our starter barely lasts two innings.

He also needs surgery more than Hardy. That's why JJ's going and Rickie's not. [edit: pselling]

Wow, it took me a while to get that. But I laughed my butt off when I did. Excellent job Brian.

Thanks for the numbers, rluz. I figured it was run support or fielders' errors, or something else a pitcher can't really help a whole lot. Without looking at the numbers it just seemed odd that anyone on the Reds pitching staff would have poor run support. Being only 26, I don't ever remember being more excited about the Brewers in September than I did in June. Keep the wins coming and make the Brewer fans Dream On.

What's amazing is that Harang pitches for a hitting team, has an ERA a touch less than Cap, but has eight less wins. And before the season people said our bullpen was going to be our downfall...

Dang, I had the Over 2nd Batter on Weeks's daily error. Was it a throwing or fielding error? Could those watching it please explain?

Considering their AAA ballclub pounded us the last time they were here, I'm just hoping they don't sweep us. But then again, they have nothing to play for and La Russa seems to like Yost. Maybe La Russa feels bad for his friend and "lets" us take two games.

Never mind, milwaukeebrewers.com didn't update todays win yet. What I had in this post is wrong. What a great win!

I just wrote a long post yesterday that it's sometimes a good idea to sac bunt. That situation was not a good idea. One questionable call by Yost and now a bad call in the same inning.

AB R OBP SLG S-RC diff % SEA 5150 668 0.318 0.397 650 18 102.74% OAK 5256 732 0.333 0.408 714 18 102.51% TOR 5172 713 0.331 0.408 698 15 102.08% STL 5192 748 0.339 0.421 741 7 100.95% LAA 5209 693 0.325 0.406 687 6 100.83% KC 5101 647 0.320 0.396 646 1 100.09% BOS 5258 853 0.357 0.456 856 -3 99.65% CHW 5113 698 0.323 0.428 707 -9 98.75% PHI 5144 730 0.346 0.416 740 -10 98.59% NYM 5093 665 0.322 0.412 676 -11 98.42% NYY 5210 818 0.355 0.450 832 -14 98.28% LAD 5044 645 0.328 0.400 662 -17 97.47% TEX 5333 817 0.331 0.475 838 -21 97.44% COL 5124 687 0.334 0.412 705 -18 97.43% CIN 5156 758 0.338 0.448 781 -23 97.09% ATL 5119 714 0.331 0.434 735 -21 97.09% TB 5221 710 0.329 0.426 732 -22 97.03% HOU 5092 641 0.321 0.406 664 -23 96.59% MIN 5178 640 0.324 0.395 663 -23 96.58% MIL 5058 670 0.329 0.420 699 -29 95.86% FLA 5132 678 0.337 0.409 707 -29 95.85% SF 5050 614 0.320 0.397 642 -28 95.71% SD 5106 636 0.334 0.393 670 -34 94.89% DET 5240 686 0.324 0.426 723 -37 94.85% WAS 5047 591 0.321 0.385 624 -33 94.75% PIT 5192 633 0.323 0.399 669 -36 94.60% CLE 5212 733 0.333 0.451 783 -50 93.64% BAL 5143 671 0.329 0.435 736 -65 91.16% ARI 5168 652 0.332 0.423 726 -74 89.84% CHC 5217 666 0.327 0.447 763 -97 87.34% Had some time at work, so I wrote this up. I don't think S-RC is 98% accurate. It is very good, but not 98% Hmmm, maybe this is mathematical proof that the sCrubs are cursed.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/laugh.gif

Back on topic of the Brewers RISP woes are overstated this year: I do think RISP is overstated. People who casually follow the Brewers tell me they'll start being good when the Brewers hit better with RISP. They fail to mention, or even realize, that the teams batting average overall is 26th. If this number ever goes up to the top 10 and we still have a low RISPBA, then it is anti-clutch. Right now, we don't have guys that can hit with no one on. Saying they can't hit with runners on is anti-clutch is missing the forrest for the trees.

Luckily, the table doesn't take into consideration that the Cards will (hopefully) be resting most of their stars. (Although their AAA team beat us the last time we met) Also, will the Bucs/Reds be using their regular starters, or will they have a couple of call-ups getting experience? This will throw a little bit more of error in rluz's graph. I still like the stats, though. I'm too much of a math nerd to not appreciate the numbers.

But it's not just the chance of scoring runs with one out and a guy on second and no out and a guy on first. The batter has to do something. He either gets on base, or makes an out. So the real stats to be analized are: Chances of Scoring Runs Runner on second, one out Runners on first and second, no out Runner on first, one out No runners on and two out If the manager feels the fourth option is the most likely going to happen if the runner swings away (pitcher hitting or gb batter facing gb pitcher, etc), then he bunts not to reach the first option so much, but to avoid the last option. I don't know the numbers, but I am sure the last option is way lower then the other options. When calling for the bunt, you reduce the chance of the last option happening. To say that you always sac bunt or you never sac bunt is a bad idea. You need to look at the situation and decide whether giving up one out on purpose is worth avoiding giving up two outs. Only in bottom of 8th inning or later should you be using the bunt to try to score a run. Other bunts should be used to avoid the double play.

I think the problem with RISP and Runner's On stats are that they are too broad to use by themselves when making comparisons. I think rluz made a good point of this with his graph, although even that didn't tell the whole story. If there is a runner on second, no one out, a hitter should be trying to put the ball into play on the right side of the field. Before Sabermetrics people get too bent out of shape, let me say that the hitter should be trying to get a base hit, not intentionally grounding or flying out. You try to get a hit over to that side, but if you fail to do that, a gb or deep fly will move the runner over to third. Let's say player A had 10 opprotunities in that situation. He ends up getting two hits, but in 5 of his outs he moves the runner over to third. You then end up with two situations of runners on the corners no out, five situations of runner on third one out, and three situations of runner on second one out. Let's then say that player B has the same situations, but doesn't try to go to right, just tries to get a hit. He ends up with 3 hits, but only moves the runner over twice. You end up with three situations of runners on the corners no out, two instances of runner on third and one out, and five situations of a runner on second and one out. Player A has .200 BARISP and Player B has .300 BARISP. Now, this is only assuming all hits were singles and the runner never scored from second. Can you really say Player B was that much better than Player A with RISP? Player A put a runner on thrid two more times than Player A. It's a very small example, but I was just pointing out how you can't use RISP as the only tool in how a player does in those situations.

I think not only having the last AB, but knowing your homefield (the walls around the stadium, cut of the grass for bounces, etc), and being able to be living out of your "home" and not a hotel room all help give a team that extra 8% to win.

G'arr, Espn radio just said Sheets walked the plank to the 60-day DL. They said the Brewmasters paid a pretty penny for Glover's contract, hoping his sea legs work out in Milwaukee. He may be getting the call as the 5th starter, instead of that scury Ober fellow.

We are 7-6 against the sCrubs this year. Of course, we haven't played them since June, when we were both different teams.

I can't find the stats to back me up (I can't find the stats, not I can't find the stats I like), but it seems that he often comes in, let's inherited runners score, then is pulled. The relief behind him then end the rally, and non of K-Davis's runners score. I know he was rocked three of four times like this and still had an era of 0.00 but was letting in every inherited runner. A reliever's ERA is almost a worthless stat by itself. Sorry to not talk about today's game, but I'd much like to forget this whole weekend ever happened.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/mad.gif

Yeah, why not give Carlos the day off and have Magruder in LF? That would make the lineup real fun for the 'stros staff.

Yes. Is it just me, or would someone without an injured back have caught that ball?

Tom, if you get blacked out, can't you still watch FSN's HD? I had HD cable hooked up for the first time last night. It was so beautiful to watch the game that way. I was watching 531 FSNHD in Mke. Or is there somewhere that you can't get FSN but will still black you out?

And if Hou or Mil win the wildcard, the NL west winner will face Atl. Atl can't get people to playoff games against the Cubs, how empty is it going to be for a sub-.500 Padres?

If the D-backs sweep SD, and SD goes 6-7 in the rest of the games, SD ends with a 77-83 record. D-backs would "only" need to go 9-5 besides their sweep of SD. They are still in the race, they just need to get hot. That being said, let's help end their season by kicking their butts on national tv tonight.http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif

Actually, it happens every year. Rookies are hazed every year, by every team. They always have to do little errands for the vets, call them specific names (Botalicco had to be called "Judge" last year), and once a year get dressed in a bad outfit for one road trip. Jenks had to wear a USC cheerleader outfit, if I remember correctly, because he was always so proud of his alma mater.