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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    Yelich has a .378 OBP over the last 14 days...that's not going to get him moved out of the leadoff spot. (yes, that's only 8 games, but still...) Meanwhile, Joey hit the .650 OPS mark!
  2. owbc
    I’m getting irritated that I’m missing gains, I did buy some renewable energy ETFs and some Uranium the other day but mostly just to satisfy my boredom with being conservative and the expectation that in the 5-10 year window there will be massive growth in alt energy. I also picked up some ServiceNow ahead of earnings. Tempting to pick up some IBM also but haven’t done it. Feels like if there is an AI correction that any large caps that have been hurt by AI speculation have upside. On the Iran/oil situation there will surely be a hard TACO and new ceasefire just in time to get gas prices down for the midterms. Hard to see the AI crash/correction coming just yet. In the dot com era there were several of these periods of anxiousness followed by upticks before the real crash hit. And this time there isn’t a Greenspan asleep at the wheel, the government will pull every lever it has to hold it off. They will ban Chinese models if they have to. At least SPCX proves that the market has some rationality left.
  3. owbc
    I’m fine burning all of our bad batted ball luck in one game
  4. owbc
    We just helped the Astros dump payroll so they can be buyers at the deadline without going over the luxury tax.
  5. owbc
    His Savant suggests that he's basically the same pitcher as 2025 but he's giving up more contact and the Mets defense is doing him dirty. The Mets aren't stupid enough to change what the Brewers were telling Freddy to throw, they told him to keep doing what he was doing. His xwOBA went from .289 to .303 (a regression, but hardly terrible and still better than his 2024 xWOBA of .307. His actual wOBA went from .270 to .342 (!!!!). No change in average exit velocity and lower launch angle plus lower strikeout rate means more balls on the ground into the crappy Mets infield defense. Every analytics team in baseball and the Mets themselves know that he has more value than his 2026 numbers. There will be plenty of interested teams. He doesn't even have to change his approach, just swap the defenders behind him and he'll be fine.
  6. owbc
    The basic premise is trying to figure out why players are not challenging in obvious challenge situations, such as Chourio in the 9th the other day. The most logical explanation is that he just forgot to challenge: “I was looking for a breaking ball. I got a two-seamer, so I was a little bit surprised.” The second most logical explanation is that Chourio thought it was a strike, and not a particularly close one at that. Underlying all this is that batters aren't very good at knowing what is a ball vs. a strike, especially when they are looking for one pitch and get something else.
  7. owbc
    That is a good point. Bregman is OPSing .699 and we were talking in the IGT last night about solving our 3B woahs if Joey can manage to OPS in the upper .600s. OPS at 3B is up to .711 league wide this year, still trailing the overall average of .722. The anti-Bregman perspective is that it's year 1 of a 5 year deal that will surely have frontloaded production and he's not even producing at the league average 3B rate. That's a lot of money for a 1-1.5 win advantage over Milwaukee at 3B -- and our 3B situation has gone almost as poorly as it could have possibly gone.
  8. owbc
    Only 4 1/3 more years and about $120 million to go!
  9. owbc
    Freddy is basically the complete opposite of Wacha. High spin/fastball dominant vs. pitches to contact w/ changeup High pitch count vs. efficient innings eater Underperforming vs overperforming peripherals Cheap contract vs. expensive contract Expiring contract vs. owe another year Known entity vs. haven't faced him since 2023
  10. owbc
    Terry Francona decided to play those numbers by IBBing the hitter in front of Cal to load the bases. It didn’t work out for him.
  11. owbc
    Regained our rightful place as the best team in MLB.
  12. owbc
    .700 is basically MLB average at 3B this year. He only needs .675 with his defense, anything above that is a bonus.
  13. owbc
    I didn't see this thread before posting on the main forum, but I think it's fair to presume that one of our prospects is getting an extension.
  14. owbc
    Complaining about platoons/splits is a universal trait of baseball fans. Fans always want to play the hot hand, most teams these days play the numbers. I think Vaughn may have gone cold from lack of play, but there clearly was some injury-related element that may have improved post-ASB. As for Yelich, I honestly don't care. He has league average wOBA, a .330 OBP, and is a plus baserunner. There are worse options for leadoff hitter.
  15. owbc
    The one thing I'll give them credit for is the refs let them play more in this World Cup vs. previous ones and let the obvious flops go. The Embolo red card was the most satisfying moment I have ever seen as a casual soccer fan, but it took VAR to get the correct call.
  16. owbc
    I'm confused, do we want Vaughn to have more or less playing time? Can't remember what the current state of that is.
  17. owbc
    Hurry up and finish the trade so the Mets have to start someone else!
  18. owbc
    Everyone complains about VAR according to my brother who watches a ton of European soccer. So that one isn't unique to us. I watch a ton of hockey and we hate the offsides review in hockey as well. And don't even get me started on deciding what is goaltender interference!
  19. owbc
    I'm pretty sure Arnold's team takes any guy who is overperforming his peripherals and throws them in the "no thanks" bin. Plus an all-star appearance??? Wacha just needs to suck a little more and he'll have a chance to get back on our interest list.
  20. owbc
    As an American, I'm glad we showed the world: - more teams = more games = more money - interrupting play for commercial breaks - a halftime show with a positive message - a 6-4 slugfest with no defense is way more entertaining than 1-nil - powerful people inserting themselves in the victory celebration Maybe we can get two more hydration breaks and a three point line by the next World Cup!
  21. owbc
    Never a doubt, off to watch the rest of the World Cup
  22. owbc
    Need us to take care of the comeback before the World Cup finale gets interesting.
  23. owbc
    We’d be paying for Freddy as a #3 starter this time. I get the desire to bring him back. Would be a win for clubhouse vibes and a safe bet for someone we can slot in the playoff rotation.
  24. owbc
    This aged poorly
  25. owbc
    4 errors and 6 SB allowed doesn’t win you many games. Credit to the Brewers for keeping the pressure on.
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