owbc
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Everything posted by owbc
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Wisconsin might have a chance when they expand to 48 in a few years
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Typical "buy low" move from the Brewers with our usual preference for defensive flexibility. Had a 110 or greater OPS+ in both 2024 and 2023. Fell off a cliff last year but Savant suggests that he mostly got unlucky. His xwOBA was basically the same as 2024, xSLG actually went up. I'm pleasantly surprised, I thought we were going to resort to dumpster diving but Rengifo is a proven major leaguer who could play every day if we really needed him to. His glove may be what ultimately costs him playing time, since he's not at the level of our other options.
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They win 100 games. They have a better Opening Day roster than 2025 and a ridiculous supply of near-MLB ready young talent to fold in as the season progresses. They do it by being #1 in MLB in run prevention. They come into 2026 with more pitching depth, a better bullpen, and better defense than 2025. They won't quite match their offensive output from 2025, but they will get close enough to improve as a whole. [disclaimer: I would officially project them for low-90s wins, there was definitely some luck involved in last year's win total and I worry about having worse injury luck. But I think 100 wins is their ceiling.]
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Regarding whether or not we are better than 2025, I think it's unfair to compare to the September roster, the real comparison is the Opening Day roster... Jake Bauers Vinny Capra Oliver Dunn Rhys Hoskins Joey Ortiz Brice Turang So...yes, we are in insanely better position with the infield than we were a year ago. -
I don't think it's controversial to say that if they can't turn Harrison into a MLB caliber starting pitcher then the trade will be a failure. It's also not controversial to say that the trade left a disaster on the left side of the infield from an offensive perspective. Really this trade is a straight up buy low, sell high.
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2025-26 Offseason Around the League Thread
owbc replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
At least he gets to be their ace and Opening Day starter! (not sure if that should be in blue or not...) -
The only thing missing is a World Series appearance, but that will come sooner rather than later if the current organizational trajectory continues. I always thought we would have to do it as underdogs but what's probably going to happen is there will be a year that we are just so freaking good that not even the Dodgers can stop us.
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Priester is the latest iteration of Wade Miley. Some guys are development projects and others are optimization projects. Priester is the latter. His FIP is never going to go much below 4 but his ERA will always outperform his FIP as long as he has Milwaukee's defense behind him. He induces contact that tends to be league average in terms of exit velocity and strongly favors ground balls. If you're going to put all of your chips into having a league best defense (at the expense of batting at times), then guys like Priester are exactly who you want in your rotation. Until they become expensive, then it's on to the next one.
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Trading Durbin and his 4th percentile exit velocity is one way to improve our power. How will we ever replace those 11 home runs that we got at 3B in 2025 (tied for 4th worst in MLB)????
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If Joey Ortiz was on another team right now he would be a guy that we would circle as a potential acquisition target. Plus defender with some track record of success coming off a rough year? That's our guy.
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I disagree. Half the guys the Brewers traded for this offseason are going to be traded again in the next 1-2 years. The Brewers show zero interest in optimizing for Opening Day. But they have not punted on the 2026 season at all -- their big ticket trades are not for low level prospects. They are targeting AAA types that often have MLB experience already. They are targeting guys that might not be very productive on March 26 but will very likely be productive by July or August. I think the organization has gotten bolder recently -- I think they are trying to make their depth chart so deep that they can make any move at any time if they think it adds value to the organization as a whole. Red Sox call and want Durbin? Great, let's make a deal that we calculate as a net value add for us. Next man up at 3B or we'll get another infielder in the next trade.
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The Yankees currently have nothing from that trade.
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Dylan Moore was one idea I had but he was signed by the Phillies to a minor league deal last week. Also another random thought -- it seems like all inhibitions are gone for this FO now. They've gone full Billy Beane.
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I’m of the belief that if you think you evaluate talent better than your competition then you should be making a lot of trades. We seem to have figured that out and are approaching Tampa and Seattle in trade volume lately. Nobody else constructs a roster like we do, turning this group into a 26 man by the end of March is going to be entertaining. And we’re surely not done trading.
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2025-26 Offseason Around the League Thread
owbc replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Apparently the Tigers just took MLB's recommendation on the offer which was essentially just a match of David Price's record-breaking $19.75M number from 2015. Price's contract adjusted for inflation is $27 million today. It was such an egregious lowball that there was no choice but to take Skubal's number. A $25 million offer would have likely won it for the Tigers. The timing of the $38.3M AAV Valdez contract makes this all especially hilarious. -
They are definitely capable of being in the group of ~10 MLB teams that isn't pinching pennies, but they don't seem to want to go over the luxury tax. Tucker was too expensive for them.
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I have a system that does about 10-11 MWh of annual production. It came with the house that I bought so I don't know how much it cost but I valued it at about $50K given that it's costing me $0 and saving maybe $2K of annual utility costs (with that number likely to go up in the future). So much of the install cost is associated with getting the permits, metering, electricians, labor, etc. Panels are cheap. They put a new roof on the house when they installed these panels in 2022, I assume in 15-20 years I'll need a new roof and when that happens it will just make sense to throw the panel replacement in with the roof replacement since they will need to be taken down anyway.
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The idea that the St. Louis is a comparable market to Milwaukee is a new concept that just emerged in the post-RSN era. St. Louis outspent us by $70 million in 2024. They've had access to ~$50 million more than us in RSN revenue for a long time. That advantage has now evaporated and they suddenly have no more spending power than we do and possibly less. Imagine telling a Brewers fan 10 years ago that in a decade the Brewers would be dominating the NL Central and the Cardinals would be rebuilding and in worse financial shape. 2026 will be the first year since the Brewers moved to the NL that they will have a higher payroll than the Cardinals on Opening Day. I agree with you and TPlush that the big boys running away from everyone else is a huge problem. MLB is going to suffer. The deferred salaries will make this hard to fix. But some fixes will get implemented. Change will happen. The changes will likely benefit us. In the interim though we are very well positioned. We are thriving. We don't have to worry about our divisional competition overtaking us with a spending binge. We will continue to be a financially healthy organization and continue to win division championships. We will get our $20 million from the MLB TV deal like everyone else.
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https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/st-louis-cardinals/news/cardinals-get-brutal-40-million-update-after-new-tv-deal-mlb/aa72cd80821367f81f997d3a More good news for the Brewers — the Cardinals are expected to receive just $20 million from their TV deal with MLB, down from the $60 million they received last year.
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Cubs favorite to win the Central…….again
owbc replied to markedman5's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The known biases of the projection systems are baked into betting lines. People won't be fooled again. The Brewers won't surprise anyone paying attention when their o/u is 89.5 wins. However, they've hit 90 three years in a row, so smart money would be on the 'over' again. -
I don't think you are appreciating how revolutionary it is that 20+ out of the 30 markets are in the same boat on local TV revenue. Local TV revenue is the #1 reason why we're stuck in the bottom 10 of payrolls despite being 12th in attendance, getting extra postseason revenue, etc. The Brewers are bringing in record high TV revenue right now because of the national contracts. The local revenue is worth less than 25% of our TV revenue income. Our one and only interest is to secure more revenue sharing. I'm of the viewpoint that more instability is a good thing. Of course the Dodgers are going to fight tooth and nail to preserve their revenue. Deferring the money is surely part of that strategy ("We can't possibly change the system or we'll be broke!"). We are not going to win a pennant until there is a major disruptive change. 2025 was our ceiling in the current financial system. We need the ability to spend more RELATIVE to other teams.
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I think it's wild that you would defend a system that gives the Dodgers nearly a half a billion dollars of more annual revenue per year. With that system specifically enabling them to sweep us in the NLCS because of all of the deferred salaries. Our local TV revenue is not going to be $0. It has exactly the same value that it had a month ago. Manfred has explained where this is going. We're now in a group of 13 MLB teams with local rights that are owned by MLB with that number likely to increase. MLB is going to package all of them and sell at once and we will receive an equal share, with no blackout restrictions. We're going to be getting way more than $20 million/year when that deal is signed and we won't be at a financial disadvantage with anyone else in that package. We're not the ones in financial doo doo. It's our competition. Look at Minnesota's situation. Look at Houston -- how many big contracts have they signed lately despite being the #6 TV market? St. Louis is in a rebuild. Atlanta has fallen off a cliff. Detroit can't afford to extend Skubal. We are heading toward a world where we will be close to a level playing field with mid-market teams that used to have a huge advantage over us. Once that happens, the momentum will be there to chip away at the big boys. I don't think it will happen in the upcoming CBA. More likely in 5-10 years. But it will happen eventually and we're way closer to that reality than we were 5 years ago.
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2025-26 Offseason Around the League Thread
owbc replied to sveumrules's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I guess the Cards are in full rebuild mode now, this move was essentially punting the next two years. Cijntje was just showcased at the Mariners’ fan fest over the weekend…that call must have been quite a shock. I wonder if the Cardinals will have him switch pitch, it sounded like Seattle was going to have him focus on being a RHP. -
Two reasons why this is unequivocally good for us: 1. We had the lowest local TV revenue in MLB, so if everyone drops by 50%, it means that we are closing the revenue gap relative to the competition. We had the least to lose from the old system. 2. Killing the RSN paradigm moves us closer to a world where local TV revenue will be shared equally amongst all the teams. That world is the one where the Brewers will be on a level playing field. In the interim, we'll have a situation where roughly 20/30 teams are stuck with MLB and the other 10 will be printing ginormous sums of money from their local TV contracts. In the past, we were stuck in last place because the mid-market teams were aligned with the big markets and nobody cared about the small markets. Now we're in a situation where the mid-markets and even some of the fairly large markets are on our side, fighting for a piece of the juicy RSN pie that the Dodgers/Yankees/etc are earning. That will bode well for us moving forward. For 2026, streaming Brewers games will be $19.99/month on the MLB app like it is for everyone else in this situation.
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Hooray, we’re free!
