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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    It doesn't look like the snow will start in Madison until around or after midnight on Wednesday. Based on the timing of the heaviest snow, there is a good probability of a large number of closings, even if the totals in Madison are only in the 8" range (although with the new model tracks this morning, the probability of the 10" totals being around Madison has increased). That being said, I distinctly remember walking to class on a day we received 12-14" of snow in 2008. They didn't close the university until the afternoon. It's dangerous to have everyone out and about in snowstorms, I wish the culture up there would take it more seriously, especially so it is easier for people with essential duties to get around.
  2. owbc
    According to the friends I know who are TV meteorologists or have worked with them, the TV forecasts are the opinion of the meteorologist on duty at the time so it can widely vary depending on the individual. The best TV mets are just as good as the NWS, but sometimes the actual forecast gets buried by the hype. Madison is in a tricky position, I don't think anyone knows what Madison will get right now. There's high bust potential on those 8-10" forecasts which probably why some are being safe and saying 6". Honestly, you guys are used to the snow up there, it will be a fun little storm even if the snow amounts are low...stay home on Thursday morning, drive slow, and life will be back to normal on Friday. Interestingly, guidance is showing another major storm for the Midwest sometime around December 27th. So it is worth keeping an eye on that time period also.
  3. owbc
    Well I just edited my post above to say more about the models. I tend to prefer the Euro solution, but the Lake Michigan temperatures are still in the 40s thanks to the record warmth this year. So even with the track farther south, I can't see how anywhere within about 5-7 miles of the lake will get any accumulating snow until the low is already past and the winds swing around to the northwest. The deformation band (to the NW of the low) is forecast to be impressive, so when it does change over to snow it will be very intense and could add up quickly. But it would only last for a couple hours at most.
  4. owbc
    Directly from the NWS: "The potential for thundersnow is looking very good." There is still debate about exactly where the heaviest snow (including thundersnow) will be, but the general area is still the same as I said yesterday. I still expect mostly rain in Milwaukee, with a quick 2-4" on Thursday morning. The 10"+ totals usually occur in a 40-50 mile swath that is difficult to pinpoint more than a day in advance. The European model (which is usually the most reliable) has the heaviest snow mostly around Madison and Fond du Lac and to the southeast (except along the lake). The American models have the heaviest snow to the northwest of Madison and Fond du Lac, with the bullseye around Green Lake.
  5. owbc
    The weather service has high confidence that much of southern and central Wisconsin will see a significant snowstorm Wednesday night into Thursday. The storm will be strong but quick moving, so it seems like the highest accumulations will be in the 8-12" range and right now the target area is somewhere from southwest through central WI, including the Madison and Appleton areas. Unless there is a significant southward shift in the track, the Milwaukee area should see mostly rain with maybe a quick couple inches of snow at the end.
  6. owbc
    Considering how improved the bullpen was by September, I can't see how it will be last in the league again. It still might be a bottom-10 bullpen though. There will probably be a few more acquisitions though that will make everyone feel better. The Dempster acquisition would have been horrible, it would have cost all of their available funds.
  7. owbc
    I guess the big question is how high can these top payrolls go? The Angels are still below $200 million so if the TV contract numbers are correct, they might have another $20+ million/year to drop on another big contract in a year or two. I hope the Pujols contract hurts them at some point, but it might just become a drop in the bucket. The Rangers' payroll is much closer to the Brewers than the Angels now. As a small market fan, I sort of expect this, but I wonder what the fans in mid-market cities like Dallas, St. Louis, or San Francisco think about getting bumped down into the lower payroll echelon.
  8. owbc
    Nice payday for Hamilton, I'm a little surprised he was able to get 5 years but the dollar amount shouldn't be unexpected at this juncture. It will be interesting to see if the LA teams can win anything with all this money being thrown around. EDIT: I see we have 2 threads. Locking this one.
  9. owbc
    So from what I understand, the 7 schools have the power to retain the "Big East" for themselves? This is a great move regardless of whether they join the A10 or make their own basketball conference. Look what happens when the schools actually work together instead of acting in their own self-interests (or rushing to a decision without fully considering the implications). As for the future, a giant A-10 conference sure looks attractive. I suspect that's where things are headed. It would be the second or third best basketball conference.
  10. owbc
    I agree that the current system can be improved by getting more teams to pay into the luxury tax and increasing the penalties for going over. It should be possible to negotiate that in the next CBA in exchange for some sort of salary floor. I don't think it needs to be a hard floor but just some sort of accountability. It would also be nice to have a way to reward teams like the Brewers for having success in a small market, perhaps some of the revenue sharing should be tied to wins or attendance.
  11. owbc
    That really doesn't work either. Just moves the problem to a divisional level instead of team. They already essentially do this. 33% of TV revenues are split (equally among all teams). Baseball has a very good revenue sharing program. All of these giant contracts are for players that are at or past their prime, thanks to the free agency rules. As already mentioned, the top teams have to pay more money for each win because they are bidding against each other for free agents. The end of the steroid era seems to have helped also, a contract for ages 30-35 isn't what it was 10 years ago. Nothing has changed for the Brewers. They never have signed a mega free agent deal and they will not in the future. I'll start worrying if the Cardinals sign a $100+ million/year TV deal.
  12. owbc
    Considering their TV contract, they should still have funds available to get Hamilton also? Not sure if they will, but they probably could.
  13. owbc
    We will see what others think of the program when they start interviewing. In theory, this is one of the most attractive vacancies to pop up in a while, no need to rebuild at all, lots of good recruits coming. So I expect big names to be interested. If not, then we have to ask why everyone is bailing at an odd time.
  14. owbc
    Never heard of him but looks like an upgrade over most of the 2012 bullpen. He will be 30 next year, arbitration eligible in 2013 and 2014.
  15. owbc
    I think all they have to do is publish the voting rolls and there will be significant improvement (with regards to the guys that get stuck around 30-50%). I do tend to agree with Schoenfield that the voting system needs some defined standards. However, those who want reform seem to be the ones who think more players should get in, including the steroid users. Judging by this thread, people have varied opinions about whether all, some, or none of the steroid users should be elected. So if 75% of voters are intent on rejecting Clemens, Bonds, and company...then they are never going to get in no matter what system is devised. Some people will always think Pete Rose should be in, but the majority wins. This voting problem is just a reflection of the real problem, which is that a large percentage of baseball players knowingly cheated over a decade and then everyone tried to forget about it and move on. The day of reckoning has finally arrived. The Giants already ignore Bonds' record and the Cardinals and Cubs never retired the numbers of McGwire and Sosa (yes, McGwire has made amends). But as for Bonds and Sosa, if their home franchises already cast this silent judgment on them, how can they be Hall of Famers? How awkward would their speeches be if they don't come clean in advance? Maybe it's better to leave it in the past.
  16. owbc
    I don't expect anyone accused of steroid use to get many more votes than McGwire and Palmeiro. Maybe in a few years from now it will be different, but for now they will all be under 25%. Piazza is a more interesting case because he is suspected of doing steroids but was never implicated in any of the rumors. I can see him getting closer to 50% but he's definitely out this year also. Like Bagwell, he's probably gets in around the third ballot. My opinion is that they should be all out or all in. If somebody like Piazza gets in because he was better at concealing his use, that's just ridiculous.
  17. owbc
    Thanks for the correction, $1 billion is a big difference between MLB and the Dodgers. As for the impact on the free agent market, I don't see how the top 3-5 teams bidding against each other is going to affect everyone else. The Brewers already are not even at the bargaining table. If teams like the Cardinals and Cubs start signing multi-billion dollar TV deals, then we might have a problem--although I would hope that MLB addresses the issue in the a future CBA before it gets to that.
  18. owbc
    Remember, 1/3 of the Dodgers' TV deal goes into the shared pool and the luxury tax is quite steep at high payrolls. The Brewers might end up making more money off other teams' TV deals than they do from their own. So it's not like we are going to start seeing $200 million+ payrolls all over the place. Besides, now that the steroid era is essentially over, free agent acquisition isn't what it used to be. By the time a player hits the free agent market, his best years are mostly behind him. On a somewhat-related note, one of the main reasons why sports on TV are becoming so valuable to advertisers is that the majority of the audience watches the game live. That isn't the case with many other shows (although I wonder how long it will be until the DVR doesn't let you fast forward through the commercials).
  19. owbc
    Agreed, the Eastern Conference as a whole is terrible. The Bucks only have 27 out of 74 games remaining vs. teams with a > .500 record. Somebody has to get hot eventually, but the Bucks could easily win 45-50 if they stay healthy. The big picture is they need to get in the playoffs to get the public engaged and interested in funding a new arena. Way too early to speculate on their playoff chances, but everything from the 3-4 seed down looks wide open.
  20. owbc
    The first round of submissions is now available for viewing online. They are mostly terrible, although there are a few decent ideas so far. Seems like most people used Microsoft Paint! Lots of attempts to blend the old logo with the new colors or vice-versa. The ugliest one of all takes the Badgers' "motion W" and turns it upside-down to make an M and sideways to make a B. There are only a few attempts at new logos so far. I assume that the people who actually know what they are doing will take longer.
  21. owbc
    Where there's smoke, there's fire. People would be ok if the Marlins carefully traded away each of their players and made sure to get a good return. But they didn't--and the reason they didn't is because they don't give a --- about the fans and are just interesting in making money. If they hired someone with baseball expertise maybe they would have signed better deals in the first place. And the refusal to give no trade clauses? They may end up having to throw money at a high-priced free agent to satisfy the discontent, but if they do, I assure you it was not their original intention. Any attempt to blame Marlins fans for "only" 2.2 million fans showing up is just plain wrong, especially because of Ozzie's comments and the fact that the team was terrible from day 1. My opinion is that even if 3 million fans showed up and even if the team made the playoffs, Loria would have dumped the contracts as soon as things went south--probably in summer 2013 or fall 2013-2014 anyway. It just happens that their opportunity came sooner. Loria knows like everyone else that players decline in their mid-30s. Also, kudos to ESPN for properly conveying this. There should be outrage because the entire system of revenue sharing is being put on the line. ESPN is actually quite tame compared to some of the media in South Florida that is instructing the fans to boycott.
  22. owbc
    That is a poll of ESPN's baseball writers, so it only includes a few actual voters. My prediction is that Braun gets somewhere around 5-6 first place votes, with 20-25 for Posey. The good news is that the results are fully published this year so we will know which writers left Braun completely off the ballot.
  23. owbc
    The ESPN voters offer a preview of how it will probably go tonight: Posey: 25 Molina: 2 McCutchen: 1 Braun: 0
  24. owbc
    I would like to see something completely new as well. The original ball/glove logo came from a contest like this, so hopefully there are some creative artists out there.
  25. owbc
    Based on the way they marketed the new stadium to the public, they had an obligation to keep some of these guys longer and not bail on their contracts 7 months into the new era. The damage caused by this deal will be far more costly in the long term. As for how the team would look in the spring: any free agent would be an idiot to sign with them now, so they aren't going to be picking up any new talent unless they overpay again. They don't have anything left to trade so there won't be any major-league caliber players coming in that way either. So the team in March will probably be the current roster plus a few guys picked off the scrap heap.
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