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Only one exam left!!! Models are all over the place for Christmas eve. In the last 2 days, the same model has given Madison a heavy snow, mostly rain with some snow mixed in, and then the latest run sends the storm to the Ohio Valley and keeps it dry here. The problem is that the energy for this storm is out in a data sparse region of the far northPacific Ocean. The last storm originated from a wave that moved down the Pacific Coast, so we had a good sampling of the atmosphere even 5 days in advance. No such luck this time so the forecast is not going to be reliable. The storm is also projected to be much smaller/weaker than the last one, so pinpointing the location of the moderate snow is going to be more difficult. All the forecasts on TV are educated guesswork. Nobody really knows what is going to happen. We probably will not have some solid answers until Monday. I refuse to speculate until there is some model agreement.

It was a good win for UW. Marquette has injuries and a serious lack of an inside presence, but they seem to be like that every year. Despite that, Marquette will get some big wins this year on the nights that the shots fall.

I suspect the government budget deficits have something to do with the decrease in plowing services, even if they aren't using it as an excuse. Meanwhile, Madison was paying all of its plow drives overtime today for what seemed like a full scale salt/plow operation. At least the roads are better now, although I did see more spinouts/wrecks today--more than 72 hours after it stopped snowing.

It would be fun to see him pitching with the wind blowing out at Wrigley. I will be highly surprised if Sheets returns to form after a year off. The Sheets I remember was a notoriously slow starter. He will likely be rusty for a long time, and may never completely return to form.

The roads in Madison are still absolutely horrible. Milwaukee does a great job with roads compared to the incompetent people in Madison. Because the city decided not to bother salting the roads, there is now a 3" thick layer of compressed snow/ice on almost all the city roads. It is now certainly not going anywhere until it rains since the vehicles have compressed it. It is like driving on the surface of the moon, since there are holes from spinning car tires. They dumped a thin layer of sand on top of it, but that only makes it barely drivable instead of impassable. I saw a semi stuck on a hill on my way to work today--I rarely made it above 20 mph and I had to wait 5 traffic lights to make a left turn because the spinning tires only allowed about 3 cars to get through each time, despite getting a 20 second signal. I know they avoid salting because of the lakes, but sometimes you have to put common sense and safety ahead of a practice that may or may not make a small impact on a very minor environmental problem. My fiance and I have canceled our dinner and shopping plans for tomorrow night because we do not want to drive anywhere. I already crashed once on slippery, unsalted Madison roads last year so I can't afford another accident. I hope they realize that there is a tangible economic impact to having skating rinks for roads for days after a storm.

Over 10" of snow down in Madison now. Over a foot in some areas. It is a heavy wet snow and has been sticking to the trees. We also had a large (~6" diameter) tree limb come down in front of our house. I am concerned that there will be widespread power outages if the winds pick up.

I am actually hoping against a snow day. I only have one class and I would like to use the libraries and shell tomorrow. Edit: I have a rumor from a supposed inside source at WSUM that says school at UW-Madison is canceled tomorrow. Doubt there will be any official word until early morning. Edit 2: It is now official, snow day tomorrow for UW, first since 1990!!!

I should have listened to my very intelligent friend who was saying 12-18" all along. The models had been showing the potential for that for several days, but we're not going to precipitate the media circus that comes with a blizzard warning until we are nearly 100% sure on the location and the intensity. Obviously, there were a number of busted winter storm warnings, especially last year. My advice is to not drive at all tomorrow. The worst will come from midnight to 8 AM but the winds will be strong well into the afternoon. Then lows dropping to near 0.

It always stinks to hear about injuries/accidents in these storms especially since I get so excited about them. Advice as always is to stay inside and be careful when shoveling. The Milwaukee NWS has created a new graphic with start times and total expected accumulations

I had a few minutes to look at the new models. The storm is now forecasted to be even stronger than before and slightly farther to the NW. Milwaukee will see a sloppy mess of around 6" with the possibility of briefly changing to a mix of rain and snow. Madison stays at or below freezing for the whole event. Good chance to see a foot of snow or even 18" in some places if some heavier bands develop. I also suspect we will see some upgrades to a blizzard warning this afternoon. Light snow today, the real fun comes in starting this evening. Winds really pick up by daybreak Wednesday.

Light snow starting as early as noon Tuesday. Maybe 1-2" by the late evening. The real deal starts around midnight, continuing through maybe 6-8 AM. Then the winds and cold really kick in with light snow continuing until about noon Wednesday. Schools will close.

Here's the latest info on the storm 5-8" right along the Milwaukee lakeshore and in Racine/Kenosha 8-12" SE of a Sheboygan to Elkhorn line around 12" NW of that, including Fond du Lac and Madison 8" or so for a La Crosse to Wausau line, fading to around 5" in Minneapolis The number will likely be tweaked slightly in the next day. The Milwaukee area has the most to gain/lose depending on small adjustments in the track. Everyone else should probably stay within a few inches of the above totals. A blizzard warning is not anticipated at this time as the strong winds will come Wednesday after most of the snow has already fallen.

The whole state of Wisconsin is now in a winter storm watch! 2-3" tonight by the way, there is no advisory because it is expected to be mostly over by morning rush hour. If there is some lake enhancement, the lakeshore counties may wake up to an advisory.

The winter storm watch is finally out: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 354 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009 ...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND LIFT NORTHEAST...CROSSING MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS TUESDAY NIGHT...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS NEAR CHICAGO INTO LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN VARIATIONS TO THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW...MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A PATH THAT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW TO WISCONSIN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS ILLINOIS...DEVELOPING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE HEAVY SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-070600- /O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0006.091209T0000Z-091210T0600Z/ MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MONTELLO...BERLIN...FOND DU LAC... SHEBOYGAN...BARABOO...PORTAGE...WISCONSIN DELLS...BEAVER DAM... WEST BEND...PORT WASHINGTON...DODGEVILLE...MADISON...JEFFERSON... LAKE MILLS...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...DARLINGTON... MONROE...JANESVILLE...BELOIT...ELKHORN...LAKE GENEVA...RACINE... KENOSHA 354 PM CST SUN DEC 6 2009 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * TIMING: OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BETWEEN 10 AM AND 12 NOON TUESDAY MORNING...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 6 PM TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST BETWEEN 12 MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM WEDNESDAY...THEN TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 10 TO 13 INCHES WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW APPEARING TO BE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO SHEBOYGAN. * WINDS: EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...TURNING NORTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN BECOME WEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT. * IMPACTS:TRAVEL DURING THE EVENING RUSH HOUR ON TUESDAY WILL BECOME DIFFICULT WITH THE INTENSIFYING SNOW...WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE HALF MILE OR LESS. HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CREATING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. * WHILE IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THIS WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORMI WARNING...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THE STORM INTENSIFIES MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS...STATEMENTS.

Wausau should still see at least 3-5" from the Tuesday night/Wed storm.

The reason Miller Park is the last stadium built with a roof is because it was one of the last stadiums approved in the 1990s. It was had to get public funding then--and now it is close to impossible so teams are taking what they can get. Even the Yankees and Mets had retractable roofs in their original plans, but took them out later due to the money issue. It is also worth noting that according to the Weather Channel, Minneapolis is the coldest metropolitan area in the continental United States. Milwaukee is the second coldest :-)

There is actually somewhat decent forecast model agreement over the next few days: Here's what we know: -A general 2-4 inch snow will fall on Sunday night across southern WI. Starting time will be in the evening (around 7-9 PM or so). Morning rush hour in Milwaukee could be impacted although it should be mostly over by then. -A large storm is coming on Tuesday night into Wednesday. A least a few inches of snow is a sure bet at this point. It will be very windy with arctic cold following the storm, blizzard-like conditions will be possible. Still unsure: -Some concern the snow changing to rain for part of the storm in SE Wisconsin. It would start as snow Tuesday night, then change to rain for a few hours on Wednesday morning, then back to snow. If the low tracks any farther north than currently expected, rain could mix in across more of southern/SE Wisconsin. -Exact amounts and timing are TBD. There will almost certainly be a Winter Storm Watch issued on Monday. -The highest snow totals will probably be around 10" in a small area. Should be a great time for the snow geeks here...sorry for the rest of you, at least it has a good shot of being a snow day :-)

I will never understand why the Twins (and the Brewers) went with green as the primary color theme. I do not see anything unique at all about this ballpark. You will only know that you are in Minnesota from the giant sign in the outfield is a Twins logo instead of the liberty bell. They kind of kept the big wall in RF from the metrodome but did it poorly instead of emphasizing it. It also seems to price out the average fan since there are barely any upper level seats. Those old concrete doughnut stadiums drew so many complaints, but now we have 10+ ballparks that all look essentially the same. I would love overhanging bleachers if they were like Tiger Stadium. I know Miller Park tried to duplicate this in RF and it actually blends into the ballpark instead of looking like an artificial publicity stunt.

If Notre Dame plays in the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, that will be enough for me.

From the Milwaukee NWS: TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...LOW BY FAR THE BIGGEST STORM POTENTIAL. ONE TO WATCH AS MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT BRINGING A STORM INTO THE MIDWEST. LOTS OF DETAILS YET TO GET IRONED OUT WITH RESPECT TO THE STORM TRACK AND PRECIP TYPES. GETTING SOME IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS FROM THE INGREDIENTS PLOTS AND ALSO GETTING DECENT VV IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS MAY END UP NEEDING A WATCH/WARNING IN ALL OR PART OF THE CWA AS TIME DRAWS CLOSER. FIRST VERY PRELIMINARY SWING AT AMOUNTS IS 4-8 INCHES...BUT AGAIN...LOTS TO SORT OUT AND TRACK RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO FAVOR THE NORTH AND NW PART OF THE CWA WITH SOME WARM AIR WRAP-IN OFF THE LAKE POTENTIALLY CUTTING DOWN AMOUNTS THERE. STAY TUNED ON THIS ONE. [/pre]

He's marginally better than Kendall...I guess I'll take it. I imagine he will only play about 90 games though.

Yeah, this one is on such a small scale that there was really no way to see it coming more than a day in advance. The heaviest band of snow is only about 20-30 km wide and the resolution of the computer forecast models that go beyond one day is 25-40 km. Anything that small is virtually impossible to see coming and even if it did show up it would be ever harder to pinpoint the location (similar to thunderstorms in the summer). The models that ran overnight were the first ones that saw anything more than flurries/light snow showers. Looks like the total here west of Madison is only going to be about 1-2" but there are reports of some heavier totals a little to the south.

I think rushing the court was justified in this case. It was against Duke, it was to win the Big Ten/ACC challenge for the first time, and Wisconsin was unranked. If it was something like #10 vs #5 then it is different. I had some tickets the year we were #7 and beat #2 Pitt and then later beat #1 Ohio State when we were #2. The students did not rush the court in either of those games. At least they allow the students to rush the court--security put up a riot-style blockade at the Bradley Center when Marquette upset #1 UConn. One person got around it and they chased him away.

Winter weather advisory out today for Milwaukee and Madison, anywhere from 1-4 inches of fluffy snow expected, highest amounts to the south and west.

Confrontation is probably a good policy if you are comfortable with it. One idea to avoid confrontation would be to just try sending out a general message to all of the student employees telling them that there are concerns about improperly reporting work hours and letting them know that they will be more closely watched. Otherwise if that doesn't work you might have to consider a policy change where they all have to sign and date a clipboard at the library in addition to filling out Kronos reports.