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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. It is on my cashback account but I have to wait 60 days to claim it. I used the 20% on 2 purchases--one for a 24" monitor that I ended up getting for about $160 and the other for the laptop. The laptop originally didn't show up (it should show up as soon as the order ships) so I emailed the Bing customer service and it was resolved within 24 hours. The issue is that you have to click on the Bing icon to get to the website, so it does not always go through properly.
  2. There is definitely some snowball effect involved. Once the building gets the reputation, it gets into the opponent's heads which makes it that much harder to win there. The building is also loud and it is designed to be that way. Compared to the Bradley Center, the Kohl Center has only about 1,000 less seats, but the interior volume is much smaller. The roof is lower and the upper sections are stacked to imitate the Field House. The worst seat at the KC is significantly lower and horizontally closer to the court than the BC. I do think that Bo Ryan's style of play is the main factor that the Kohl Center is so intimidating. Winning on the road is difficult in college basketball to begin with, but the swing offense and physical defense make it very difficult for opposing shooters to get into any sort of groove. They are taken way out of their comfort zone by the arena and by Bo Ryan's style. The combination makes it extremely difficult for opposing teams to win.
  3. I am very happy with my Dell Studio 1550. The only problem is that it tends to get too warm if I use it for more than 30 minutes, but I propped it up with some coasters and it is ok now. I did also have that one video issue as mentioned in the Windows 7 thread, but I was happy with the response from a single call to Dell service. If you buy online, try using Bing Cashback. I used their 20% cash back sale in December and got an additional $250 rebate on top of the other Black Friday discounts. The original price was around $1700 and I got it for about $1050. Buying online takes lots of shipping time (2 weeks or so) but you can customize everything about the laptop. I highly recommend getting a back light on the keyboard. They also had a Brewers laptop design available, but I decided to save the additional $60 and put it toward a nice sound/video card.
  4. I would love to see this, but there would be lots of issues to work out. The MLB playoffs are already getting too long, so to add another 5-7 game series on top of an 8-month season might be unpopular. The other concern is that some of the excitement of the original World Series (or MLB championship or whatever they would rename it) would go away, since it would no longer signal the end of the season. The idea of resting your pitchers/players in game 6 or 7 of the World Series would be a shocking change. At the same time, it would be an admission that it is important to grow baseball to the next level that only soccer has reached--where various league champions from different countries would eventually play each other. As for the DH, I think Japan ironically has the same problem as MLB, where one league uses it and the other does not.
  5. I should follow up on my problems. I called Dell service and they used remote desktop to fix the problem. I was very impressed and everything with Windows 7 works great now.
  6. Getting over 6" is going to be a challenge in the Madison area. The Milwaukee area should see just light snow for the next few hours before the lake effect really starts to kick in this evening...hopefully after rush hour.
  7. UW played "Crean-ball" tonight where they pass the ball around the perimeter for 30 seconds and then throw up a contested jump shot. Despite that, they only lost by 7 because they also played decent defense and kept Michigan State away from fast break points and easy baskets. It should be a good learning experience, Michigan State was far more physical in the interior than any team we played to this point. All the big men were taken completely out of the game (except Leuer).
  8. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mkx/wx/File.png I think the totals on the north/west sides of this might be exaggerated, but otherwise it looks good.
  9. I always thought Vince Condella in Milwaukee did the best job of educating instead of just reading the forecast. He was a big inspiration when I was growing up.
  10. It's an Alberta Clipper which isn't as fun to forecast as the panhandle storms. Clippers are usually known for being fast-moving, but this one is a little slower with some extra moisture, so we are going to get more than the usual 1-3" that you see with clippers. However, the snow is going to be really fluffy (15-18:1 ratios). The other issue is Lake Michigan. As we talked about earlier in the year, the warm lake ruined the early December snowstorm for Milwaukee. In this system, the lake makes up for the difference, as there is going to be a nice NE flow throughout most of the event. Lake effect is obviously a very tricky forecast but it looks like it will add significantly to the snowfall totals in the warning areas. I would not be surprised if a small area that gets under the strongest band ends up with a foot of snow. Should be a general 6-9" for the warning area (less farther away from the lake) with some localized 9-12" totals. The Madison area should see 3-5". Start time is around 2-4 AM for Madison and 5-7 AM for Milwaukee. It will be a quick hitter for Madison with the heaviest snow already over by late morning. Milwaukee will see moderate snow continuing all the way through the evening and possibly into the overnight. Forecast confidence is usually high, so I do not expect any major changes except for figuring out where the heaviest lake effect snow bands will set up.
  11. As with every big signing, it will greatly help the Cardinals in the short term while the long term remains unknown. The other long term issue is whether an offense can succeed with a pair of star players and a bunch of average/below average players elsewhere. The Brewers need to pay attention before they split up Braun/Fielder.
  12. I'm not sure who is going to win the AL East, but I know that the 3 teams with the lowest probability of making the playoffs over the next 5 years are the Rays, Jays, and Orioles.
  13. I actually found that piece to be rather optimistic, at least compared to some of his previous work. Posnanski's work is especially sad because he clearly will always love the Royals no matter what--and they likely have many years of losing ahead.
  14. Purdue gives the Badgers matchup problems. Wisconsin might be faster than years past, but I still worry about slowing down Hummel and company. Can't see how you can argue that the Badgers are equal or better than Purdue given the current schedules and records. Even if the Badgers pull out a close victory at the Kohl, you could still argue Purdue is a better team.
  15. I'm currently having issues with my new Windows 7 Dell laptop. I think there is an issue with the video card but I can not pinpoint the problem. One issue is that the computer tends to freeze when any type of video is played--either in firefox/IE or from a DVD. When the videos do work, some of the picture sometimes is missing, which I can not fix without restarting. The other issue is that I plugged my laptop into an external monitor and had problems with both the standard and the HDMI cable. The refresh rate seemed to be messed up with the standard cable (could see blinking) and the HDMI cable picture only covers about 21" of the 24" monitor with black space on the edges. Both the refresh rate and resolution settings are fine. It is especially strange because the laptop says the resolution is 1920x1080 but the picture is definitely not. I checked the video card driver and it appears to be fine. Any ideas?
  16. I would say the NBA lost credibility, but it didn't have any to begin with.
  17. Trevor cried in the locker room after that loss. I saw that replay about 20 times and still could not decide whether he was safe or out. Looks out in real time though.
  18. It doesn't matter what glasses I'm wearing or what stats you use, it's $7.5 million/year for Jason Marquis!!! Yes, the Brewers overpaid for Wolf, but at least we overpaid for a good player. People keep getting upset when mediocre teams sign mediocre players to mediocre contracts. Players like Jason Marquis, Rich Harden, Jason Duchscherer are mediocre #4/#5 starters that can be filled with much cheaper pitchers than $5+ million/year risky contracts. The Brewers made a smart decision by signing a much higher quality pitcher instead of 2 mediocre ones. It doesn't matter if Suppan makes $10 million/year or $400,000/year, he's not helping the team either way.
  19. Throwing projections aside, Marquis looks like the typical free agent to avoid. He's coming off a career year with an AS/playoff appearance and is nearing the end of the prime of his career (or has possibly already reached the peak). He is a good bet to duplicate his 2009 numbers in 2010 but is more likely to regress than improve, especially in 2011. Another concern is the huge increase in IP. He pitched 49 more regular season innings in 2009 compared to 2008. Also, he has a relatively low K/BB ratio and had one of the best defenses in the league behind him in 2009. Seems like a good fit as a back end of the rotation innings eater. I'll take Wolf for an extra $2.5m/year.
  20. As mentioned, it is all about risk/reward. By most accounts, we only had the money for one starter and we chose to get one of the top arms out there instead of a few mid range guys with higher risk but a cheaper price. Mulder would cost virtually nothing to sign. He hasn't pitched well in ages, but there are many, many stories out there of former major league players making it back after long recovery periods. Remember, he is only 32 years old. Mulder also knows what it takes to pitch effectively at the highest level--which requires more than just raw talent. The only reason that you would not want to sign more guys like this is because they use up resources and appearances that could be spent on younger prospects. Mulder is not replacing a more prominent starter that we could of signed. He will be part of the group of guys that competes for those final roster spots, which is a process that every team goes through. Casey McGehee emerged through that process last year--remember how many other players he had to beat out in the process, not only in spring training, but on the big league bench?
  21. I doubt the lakes in Madison have much of an effect on storm tracks due to their small size. I could see individual cumulus clouds being affected though, although I have never seen a pattern that would represent that. The temperatures at the airport can be affected by Lake Mendota though--I remember one warm winter day either this year or last that a strong SW wind off a frozen lake kept the airport in the upper 30s while the rest of the area warmed to around 50. Hawing is right, the tornado theory is a myth. That being said, there are areas that are more favored for tornadoes than others based on local geography. The wind flowing over/around hills can either help to spin up or prevent tornadoes, but it depends on the exact wind direction and is never true as a generalization. When graphing the last 20-30 years of tornado reports, a maximum occurs in a bad from the Dells eastward while the Madison area has seen less tornadoes--but still some tornadoes, including one that was visible from library mall. Either downtown Milwaukee or Madison will likely get hit eventually, it is just statistically improbable due to the relatively small size of cities.
  22. Yep, we had a good time with the December 1, 2007 ice storm, but that happened before I took most of my meteorology classes--I feel like I understand the storms now way more than I used to. The actual storm track doesn't really matter much for this storm since we are dealing with a warm front. The low takes a very unusual track, my meteorologist friend from Minnesota compared the track to the 1991 Halloween Blizzard although this one is not quite as extreme. This one goes from Arkansas to central Iowa and then weakens/stalls out before gradually drifting across Wisconsin. There is also an unusual and complicated upper level setup that includes phasing between a split flow in the jet stream with a strong upper level disturbance over the plains. The moisture surge from the Gulf is once again amazing as with our previous winter storm from 2 weeks ago. The Minneapolis area is going to stay all snow and is expecting 16-20". Anyway, the main differences in the models relate to the vertical temperature profile over the state. Out of the two global forecast models that I can look at for free online, one has a much longer period of snow/sleet while the other quickly changes most of Southern WI to rain/freezing rain. Both have a changeover to rain by Thursday afternoon and give about an inch of rain by Friday morning. Madison could easily see 3-5" of snow if one verifies, while the other would show almost no snow and a long period of freezing rain. Milwaukee is going to be slightly warmer with a faster changeover to rain, no matter how you look at it. I do not think the track of the storm matters as much as the interaction between the warm/cold air masses along the warm front. Therefore, it is more of a timing issue instead of track. Where my actual weather forecast training can really be applied is by interpreting the two models and figuring out which scenario is more likely. Each model has known biases, but much of it comes down to a forecaster's knowledge of the region and the performance of past storms compared to the models. Many meteorologists around here are unfamiliar with ice storms since they are relatively rare. Another problems is that both models have been very stubborn with their differing solutions, which is exactly what happened in the previous storm. The forecasts to this point have taken the middle ground between the two--with at least some snow forecasted before it changes over to freezing rain. I think the warmer solution will work out in the end and the road conditions will not be that bad. The pool of cold air over us is not that impressive and the surface temperature will quickly get up to 30-32 degrees as soon as the precipitation hits. The wind is also going to be cranking out of the east at 20 mph, so the warm lake temperatures will quickly get Milwaukee over 32. The models often underestimate the influence of Lake Michigan (the warm lake not only warmed up Milwaukee in the last storm, but its warming influence also pulled the track of the entire storm system slightly farther north that it otherwise would have gone). The surge of warm air above the surface is also very impressive. It is hard for me to see it staying as snow for very long at all before it changes to mixed precip. Milwaukee will likely see very little frozen precip, especially near the lake. I guess we will just have to wait and see though.
  23. Looks like the best time to travel in southern WI will be either Wednesday morning or Thursday evening. I personally have to take the bus to Milwaukee at 8 PM Thursday night and I am not worried. Travel could be extremely hazardous late Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. We are going to see an extended period of freezing rain/sleet with temperatures hovering around 31-32 F. I doubt the major roads will be that bad as long as they salt, but we do not get many ice storms around here so I do not really know how it will play out. This is the first ice storm I have ever closely tracked--they tend to get really bad when they happen in the south, but we have better snow removal equipment around here. The second concern is with the soaking rain that is expected. Even Madison should lose most of its snow cover with over an inch of pure rain expected on top of about a 1/2" liquid equivalent of snow/sleet/ice. Milwaukee will see a brown Christmas morning with light snow showers in the afternoon. I highly recommend removing the snow off your roof to prevent water damage. Also, make sure that storm drains are not blocked with snow/ice. Edit: The NWS has a great multimedia weather briefing out.
  24. I'm so glad to be done with school, it feels great!!! However, I am going to have to sit here nervously waiting to for responses from grad schools starting in mid-January... As for travel times, the precip starting time is still very much in question. Models have been slowing this thing down, so the precip could hold off until Thursday morning.
  25. Well, I just wrote a big post about the storm and then accidentally deleted it. The original forecasts were wrong (as expected), and there are still lots of details to iron out based on the next few model runs. Basically, we are expecting some light snow to begin with on Wednesday evening, quickly changing to freezing rain/sleet/snow for overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Everyone in Southern WI will gradually change to all rain for Christmas eve night into Christmas. Flooding will be a possibility in areas with the big snow pack still around. Everything will change back to snow on Christmas afternoon, but only light accumulations are expected. It is difficult to say how big of a travel impact this will be. If the precipitation stays as sleet and freezing rain for an extended period on Thursday, it could be really, really nasty. If the temperatures are a little warmer, there will likely be little or no travel impact (although Minneapolis/NW Wisconsin can expect up to a foot of snow). The NWS will likely issue a winter storm watch for much of Wisconsin. The Milwaukee area may be excluded again, as a faster rain changeover is expected due to the warm lake waters.
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