Yep, we had a good time with the December 1, 2007 ice storm, but that happened before I took most of my meteorology classes--I feel like I understand the storms now way more than I used to. The actual storm track doesn't really matter much for this storm since we are dealing with a warm front. The low takes a very unusual track, my meteorologist friend from Minnesota compared the track to the 1991 Halloween Blizzard although this one is not quite as extreme. This one goes from Arkansas to central Iowa and then weakens/stalls out before gradually drifting across Wisconsin. There is also an unusual and complicated upper level setup that includes phasing between a split flow in the jet stream with a strong upper level disturbance over the plains. The moisture surge from the Gulf is once again amazing as with our previous winter storm from 2 weeks ago. The Minneapolis area is going to stay all snow and is expecting 16-20". Anyway, the main differences in the models relate to the vertical temperature profile over the state. Out of the two global forecast models that I can look at for free online, one has a much longer period of snow/sleet while the other quickly changes most of Southern WI to rain/freezing rain. Both have a changeover to rain by Thursday afternoon and give about an inch of rain by Friday morning. Madison could easily see 3-5" of snow if one verifies, while the other would show almost no snow and a long period of freezing rain. Milwaukee is going to be slightly warmer with a faster changeover to rain, no matter how you look at it. I do not think the track of the storm matters as much as the interaction between the warm/cold air masses along the warm front. Therefore, it is more of a timing issue instead of track. Where my actual weather forecast training can really be applied is by interpreting the two models and figuring out which scenario is more likely. Each model has known biases, but much of it comes down to a forecaster's knowledge of the region and the performance of past storms compared to the models. Many meteorologists around here are unfamiliar with ice storms since they are relatively rare. Another problems is that both models have been very stubborn with their differing solutions, which is exactly what happened in the previous storm. The forecasts to this point have taken the middle ground between the two--with at least some snow forecasted before it changes over to freezing rain. I think the warmer solution will work out in the end and the road conditions will not be that bad. The pool of cold air over us is not that impressive and the surface temperature will quickly get up to 30-32 degrees as soon as the precipitation hits. The wind is also going to be cranking out of the east at 20 mph, so the warm lake temperatures will quickly get Milwaukee over 32. The models often underestimate the influence of Lake Michigan (the warm lake not only warmed up Milwaukee in the last storm, but its warming influence also pulled the track of the entire storm system slightly farther north that it otherwise would have gone). The surge of warm air above the surface is also very impressive. It is hard for me to see it staying as snow for very long at all before it changes to mixed precip. Milwaukee will likely see very little frozen precip, especially near the lake. I guess we will just have to wait and see though.