RobertR

I'd bet on Miami having a tough year too. Lots of teams that the Brewers could play .500 against. They might be in the toughest division though. To be fair, Lucroy, Smith, Peralta, and Braun might be on the block. This team could and likely will get worse.

For fairness, I'd note that the Cardinals didn't have to gut their team to have a strong farm system. Heck, the Brewers probably won't get a prospect as good as Arcia out of this year's or next year's draft either. Certainly an early draft pick helps, but there have been plenty of teams that have gone a long time with early draft pick after early draft pick and never amounted to much of anything. The pre-Huntington Pirates for example. I think there's an argument to be made that if you have talented scouting and farm directors, you'll succeed long term regardless of where you draft in any given year. That said, Stearns has picked a direction. It might be tough to watch the MLB team for the next few years, but it's a perfectly logical direction. It doesn't mean that every move will work out, or needs to work out, but it's a clear direction.

Stearns wouldn't have brought in Broxton if he placed no value on defense. But, the defense is one of the reasons that I think the odds of the Brewers being surprisingly good instead of expectedly very bad are slight. And I think the idea that because the team was defensively bad at the peak of their success cycle means it's not cause for at least some concern when they're in a rebuild mode and trying to develop young pitchers is not really supportable. Besides, I remember how ugly that NLCS series was. Can anyone really say that's watchable over 162 games with a lot less offense and pitching talent? Yuni B, at SS and 1B, and Kotsay in CF are among the prime exhibits against the previous regime. Ultimately, I agree that bats are probably more flippable than gloves. Especially since the AL has a DH. And we shouldn't be overly worried at this point about Stearns' overall rebuilding plan, as Middlebrooks, Carter, Liriano/Santana, and Villar are not the future at 3B, 1B, CF, and SS. We'll judge that when we see what he actually is planning. But, in the meantime, it could get ugly out there. Perhaps so ugly that they'll have to change course in personnel this season.

Yeah there's always the chance that Carter could pop 20 hrs by the trade deadline and have a market. Clearly Stearns is aware of it. Same for Middlebrooks. They're stopgaps but there's some upside to them that could be flipped for more long-term talent. But I think it's fair to point out that those guys cumulatively make for a bad defense. It's worth considering if that gets in the way of long-term goals like developing pitching. I don't know the answer to that but it's always good to be aware of potential unintended consequences.

All the more reason to be shopping Davis and Braun.

There's no way that Phillips breaks camp with the team, even if he's obviously the best option. No point in starting his clock until after he's clear of Super Two status.

We have so many because we can. Why not have them? It is just depth and some of them will be dropped or in the minors by the time opening day comes around. Injuries in spring training happen so maybe we need Young for a couple weeks to start out you never know. I'm of the opinion that they have that many because they don't really have any. At pretty much every other position they either have a young player with longer term upside or a place holder with potential value to be flipped. I can't really say that about center field. Signing Austin Jackson with the intention of flipping him would make sense. Barring that Broxton hitting well enough to justify a look would be a good thing.

I can kind of see the argument for Cecchini, although there are questions about his glove, but Middlebrooks, who's already arbitration eligible, strikes me as purely a stopgap that you hope can get hot and be flipped. I'm dubious of that myself, but I can understand the thought process. Centerfield kind of perplexes me though. Yeah, you can give the ABs to Santana and Liriano who have some long term value, but I don't think anyone thinks they're up to the challenge defensively and I think you worry that it could affect developing your pitchers. Nieuwenhuis and Young don't have any upside to be flipped, so why even have them? Reed probably needs more time in the minors. And, Broxton probably has 5th outfielder as his upside. It's hard to see the plan there.

I'd agree that the Lind trade is the only real one that raised any questions. Most of the rest have been well received and carried very little risk. It's hard to fault Stearns for not conjuring up a stud out of thin air. That said his moves going forward are going to carry more risk. And even Stearns has to be concerned that center field will not accomplish anything towards long term goals. Third base still has tons of questions, short term and long term. There's a lot left to be done.

If our GM had a crystal ball it would be easy. But the simple fact is that the guys Melvin acquired are more highly regarded by scouts than most of the guys Stearns has acquired to date. There's lower risk that they'll wash out in the minors and a higher chance that they'll be at least average. We might as well not have scouts if you believe that all minor leaguers have an equal chance of flopping.

Agreed. Where Stearns will show his mettle will be in the the draft and international. I'd say that how Stearns handles getting valuable returns for Lucroy, Davis, Braun, and Smith are his first true test. He has to get guys that will contribute for them. Plus he has to be able to stay the course during losing and falling attendance. Those are near term tests.

Santana, Houser, Phillips, and Davies are just as likely to be flops as anyone else. No they're not. They might not all be studs but there's no chance that they'll flame out in A ball.

What is a targeted approach? To me, instead of bringing in a half dozen guys for CF to see if you can correctly identify the right one in Spring Training, always a risky approach, you get one player with a better known floor and concentrate your resources elsewhere. Instead of getting a half dozen arms and middle infielders in a series of trades, you combine the resources you traded away and target a AA third basemen with a reasonable floor. Realistically, the Brewers only have so many roster spots, with Arcia, Phillips, and others clearly part of future plans, that a lot of these fringey middle infielders have no real future with the team. I don't think there's anyone here that wouldn't rather have a solid third base prospect out of all the wheeling and dealing done than all these 4th outfielders and utility middle infielders. We're too far away from seeing the results to judge whether the offseason actually found any future contributors or not. But, I think it's safe to say that Stearns concentrated on quantity with bigger risks and higher upside than he did on minimizing risk. It's very possible we'll be wondering about the future at third base and first base again next off season. Is that progress? Saying that I don't expect most of the players acquired will make any major contributions to the major league club shouldn't be particularly controversial. I bet Stearns would agree with me in private. Realistically, if they come out with 3 or 4 players in all their moves, that will exceed expectations. I'm just saying that whether the process works or not is up to scouting, analytics, and luck. There's no right way to rebuild and low risk, moderate upside quality might have proven to be more effective than high risk, high reward quantity. Especially if you believe that the risk of some of these acquisitions has been understated. Since we don't know what else was on the table, we'll never know the answer to that question, but let's not present a false dichotomy that Stearns' way is the only true way of rebuilding and every other way wasn't rebuilding at all.

None of those prospects are close to sure things, with the possible exception of Diaz. Especially those kids from Seattle. It's actually probable that the vast majority of this off season activity is going to amount to nothing. Yeah the rebuild is necessary and Stearns is committed to it, but Melvin's last flurry of trades and the upcoming draft may end up being more important than anything done this off season.

Other than the Segura trade, it wouldn't surprise me if much of what Stearns did this off season is ultimately viewed as activity instead of progress. He's clearly relying on volume to find some diamonds in the rough but there's plenty of reason to doubt most individual moves. Is that any better than a more targeted aproach? We'll see.

My biggest concern going into spring training is that the defense could be downright brutal. Catcher might be the only position that ends up a defensive plus. That kind of baseball can be very tough to watch, whether you're a casual or dedicated fan. Plus I think it can make it tougher to develop pitching if you're making them work harder and teaching them they can't rely on the defense. There’s potential for this to be a very high stress year for all involved.

Baseball Prospectus laid out pretty convincingly why we shouldn't expect much out of this year's roster. They don't project to have any particular strengths. They're not going to walk much or hit for average and they'll probably be among the league's worst in OBP. Carter, Braun, Davis, and Lucroy will hit a few homers, but the rest of the team won't hit many and they'll likely finish average at best. The defense is likely to be below average if not outright bad. Outside of Nelson and Peralta, the rotation is likely made up of back end starters, at best, and there is no Ace to be relied upon to give the bullpen a rest. They don't run particularly well either. Other than potentially the bullpen, this team is quite bad all over. They have depth in bad. That's with counting on the Brewers being healthy. And it's quite possible that they don't have anyone that's going to stick at 3B or CF despite throwing everything at the wall. Couple that with Carter, Braun, Lucroy, Davis, and probably Will Smith on the trading block and things could get a whole lot worse as the season goes on.

From what I can tell, the Brewers got the best player in the deal in Chase Anderson and the player with the most upside in Diaz. Honestly, I wouldn't put it past Stearns to understand the concept of sunk cost and not even bother with Aaron Hill past spring training. This is a really good deal.

Baseball Prospectus is out. I got depressed reading the section on the Brewers.

Slightly surprised at Carol not getting a nomination for Best Picture but I kind of knew it was slipping from front-runner status when it didn't garner a PGA or DGA nomination. I wasn't bold enough to make that prediction though. Surprised at Ridley Scott not getting a nomination. I suspect that George Miller is the front-runner unless they give it to Inarritu again. I've seen 5 of the 8 best picture nominees. Need to catch up with The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, and The Revenant.

I'll make some predictions before nominations. I expect that there will be 8 Best Picture nominees. I expect the following. Spotlight Carol The Big Short The Martian Mad Max: Fury Road The Revenant Brooklyn Straight Outta Compton If there's nine, I predict Bridge of Spies will be added to the list. If ten, I think Star Wars gets in.

Yeah Axford is a real pro at picking the Oscars.

Ruth I understand. No criteria had been firmly set and the number of eligible players was huge. If I asked people to name the top ten films of the last 50 years how many would be unanimous? Using Ruth as an example to justify not voting for an obvious Hall of Famer is comparing apples to oranges.

Personal preference, but I'd rather the Brewers were picking up good defense, marginal offense players than the reverse. Purely for aesthetics purposes and because I think that's likelier to help the young pitchers long term by shortening their workload if nothing else. That said, considering what the Brewers are trying to do this season, there's at least the upside that Carter will hit well enough in Miller Park so that the offense isn't brutal and he can be flipped at the deadline. Considering the Brewers are required to field a team, it's a decent short term signing.

I kind of think that Stallone is likely to get a nomination. It's a great storyline anyways. Mark Rylance from Bridge of Spies is probably the favorite in the category, but stranger things have happened. Depp has an outside chance at a Best Actor nomination for Black Mass, he's up for Best Actor in the Screen Actors Guild awards. Black Mass has no chance otherwise.