RobertR
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Everything posted by RobertR
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With The Revenant opening Friday, it looks like Milwaukee will get the last of the big Oscar contenders finally. The nominations are next week Wednesday. Unless the old men of the Academy really blow it, and they could, the conventional wisdom of what's in contention for Best Picture would likely limit complaining as there appears to be a healthy mix of both populist and art house films in contention. I'd be very surprised to see a film from outside the following list get a Best Picture nomination. Carol Spotlight Mad Max: Fury Road The Big Short The Martian Brooklyn The Revenant Straight Outta Compton Bridge of Spies Sicario Star Wars: The Force Awakens Ex Machina Creed Room with maybe Inside Out and Anomalisa long shots if animation is considered. I think the top 5 are basically locks, and will likely be the Best Director nominees as well, with possibly Inarritu crashing the party. The rest will depend on just how many additional slots the Academy has this year, and with that many films splitting votes, there may be less rather than more. I'd put the over/under of nominees at 8. So, thoughts about this year?
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Lohse was certainly a lot worse than anyone projected him as being. Gomez was hurt too. And Peralta was hurt as well. The wheels fell off last year but that terrible start was way below their talent level. Then they traded away talent down to that record.
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I don't share the optimism that we can assume the starting pitching will be noticeably better this year. Jungmann in particular could regress some. Young pitching will break your heart is a cliché but it's often true. Couple that with a questionable infield and center field and I really don't see a scenario that's anything other than bad. It certainly doesn't look like the defense will help the pitching staff either. I guess that's okay in the long run but I can't blame anyone for not paying big league prices for a team that may field a AAA quality roster. Hopefully they're not unwatchable. -
I suppose Rey could be a Palpatine. That would be a curveball if a storm trooper and a Palpatine turned out to be the heroes of the new series. I suppose it's also possible that Vader had other children.
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Rey is clearly either a Skywalker or a Kenobi. They wouldn't hide her last name otherwise. The Force is clearly the get out of jail free card for any duel outcome. Rey holding her own isn't really that far outside established rules. Now Finn lasting more than 5 seconds against a guy that can hold a blaster bolt frozen in mid-air is another thing.
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In many ways, I think Guardians of the Galaxy did a better job of evoking similar feelings as Star Wars without feeling like a copy at times. The new Star Wars film is much, much better shot and designed though.
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I liked the movie, particularly the new characters minus Domhall Gleeson and the two CGI rehashed, but am a little surprised at some of the hyperbolic praise considering how much of a rehash of the original movie it is. I'm kind of befuddled at the need for nostalgia in the age of home video. Also there's not much to actually spoil. Still it's a good movie. I'd put it somewhere in the neighborhood of Return of the Jedi.
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At this point, I expect Davis and Lucroy to be gone soon. There's little doubt though that 2016 is going to be an ugly year in Miller Park.
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I find this a very intriguing trade. While I was curious to see what Rogers could do, I never thought he'd be any kind of long term impact player. Neither of these two are going to be stars, but I could see both being solid contributors. Don't seem to be particularly risky either.
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Jean Segura has a modicum of defensive value and value on the basepaths. He's disappointing but he's certainly a cut above Middlebrooks. He's a major leaguer, albeit not a particularly good one.
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It's not like Middlebrooks came from an organization that didn't value plate discipline. Coupled with no defensive value I find it hard to see any upside. Again no real cost, other than perhaps an opportunity cost of signing someone else with more realistic potential, so I don't think anyone is actually upset. Just the definition of a meh signing. Although, on a baseball aesthetics level, I think I'd be more positive if the Brewers were targeting good fielders. That would probably make the losing more tolerable and be better for developing pitchers.
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Will Middlebrooks is different than that bunch. He's been given ample opportunity to prove he's not a major leaguer. And boy has he proven it. If he's minor league depth, no big deal. But he currently looks as useful as Yuni B.
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Yeah but spring training is a lousy time to gauge most players abilities. I hope the spring training invite is merely a formality and he's targeted for AAA unless there are massive amounts of injuries.
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My biggest fear with this type of signing is if he has a hot spring and the Brewers release a player with some potential only to watch Middlebrooks turn back into a pumpkin once the season starts. That's the downside to just throwing things against the wall to see what sticks.
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My biggest fear with this type of signing is if he has a hot spring and the Brewers release a player with some potential only to watch Middlebrooks turn back into a pumpkin once the season starts. That's the downside to just throwing things against the wall to see what sticks.
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FWIW I reject the "our lower levels are weak therefore we needed lower level guys". That's justification for reaching. Either that was the best package out there, however you want to measure it, or it wasn't. Myself, I think short season teenagers are incredibly risky.
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One year of an 32 year old, injury prone, platoon 1B whose defense is likely pushing him to DH for the Mariners is not worth more than this, it just isn't. Lind has some value against RHP but not a ton of it given all of his limitations. We were not going to get any sure thing prospect for him. Last year was nice and all but his previous 3 seasons combined were for negative WAR as in he has been below replacement level over that time. His poor defense and baserunning just eats away at whatever value the hitting gives him. Yet the Brewers got more for a half year of broken down Aramis Ramirez. I don't think anyone is really angry about the deal. Certainly it fits in the right direction. But I think it's silly to think that a reasonably priced player coming off a productive season with no long term risk has practically no value. This off season is littered with trades that show otherwise. I think it's mostly a matter of preference for these types. I think lottery tickets are mostly a bad investment whether you have one or three. You can always flip major league talent if the timing isn't right. But, really we won't know if these guys are actual prospects for another few years. I hope they are, but I think the odds are long. Either way I doubt this deal has any appreciable effect.
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You could literally change teenagers to anything you wanted. Of course they may not develop....everyone knows that. Apparently, everyone doesn't, as the idea that these guys are anything more than lottery tickets seems at odds with the idea that these guys are bound to improve and contribute some day. I don't particularly care what these guys may have hit on the radar gun one time, in short season, against other teenagers, these types of players are inherently unlikely to ever sniff the majors. The odds of making the majors out of short season ball, for unheralded prospects that are not in the top 30 for a weak Mariners system, are very long. Add in one has already had Tommy John surgery and the odds get longer. Baseball America's writeup on the three of them makes them sound like far from can't miss prospects. Let's face it, it's tough for anyone to make it all the way to the majors. Now, we'll see. Maybe the scouts know something in particular. But, I think the Brewers will likely get more use out of the money they saved and presumably will use for international signings than out of these particular three players. People do win the lottery, but it's not a wise investment strategy. I'm not particularly anti- this trade. But, yeah, I'd rather have a player in AA with decent odds of making the majors over three unheralded guys in short season ball. I don't know if Stearns was offered that decent AA player, so I can't be too critical of the trade, but I think the Brewers got too cute here.
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Not all teenagers improve. Some know how to pitch but don't have the stuff to get out more advanced hitters. Some never develop secondary pitches. A lot get hurt. Some never develop the stamina to survive a full season.
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Mary Steenburgen makes every movie better.
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I just don't see the guys acquired as high reward types. Which combined with their high risk makes it an underwhelming deal. We'll know a lot more next year though. Also don't knock average. An average first baseman might have done wonders in 2013 or 2014. No team fields 8 All Stars and an Ace every game. Arguably they wasted prime years of Grienke, Gomez, Lucroy, and Braun by not having enough average players.
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Garin Cecchini to Brewers for Cash Considerations
RobertR replied to billymac's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Like the pickup a lot. Realistically I think he's looking to start the season in AAA and get time when a stopgap is traded. Hard to see any downside to this. -
Honestly I don't believe that getting 3 guys really increases your odds significantly. Three times zero is still zero. Now, I agree that their odds are better than zero, clearly their floors are at least low -A which is not insignificant, but three unheralded guys like this have a long, long ways to go. Which doesn't make it a bad trade, but certainly makes it a high risk trade in that there's a significant chance they traded something for nothing. And there's also value in having some cheap talent on the major league field in the interim. Last I checked MLB requires you to field a team and stop gap free agents make more than minimum. I don't hate the trade as it's clear that Lind was not part of the next winning team or had significant value in helping to develop talent. But I'll be surprised if any of these players acquired is part of the next winning team either.
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Looks like we will be in a rebuilding phase for a few years!!
RobertR replied to jfitz44's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Hey, up to mid-August 2014, people were having a lot of fun. -
You can't understand that people may not like that the Brewers may have just turned a proven, reasonably priced, major leaguer into three guys that are unlikely to amount to anything? I think it's possible to agree with Stearns' overall plan, and question individual decisions. Now, none of us know what else was on the table, but the Brewers farm system has come far enough that you can make an argument that lower risk quality might be more important than higher risk quantity at this stage. Especially since the Mariners farm system isn't exactly swimming in talent. And the money available would have been the same in either case.
