RobertR

I don't know if the 7th Spider-Man movie is suddenly going to jump from mid-$700s to a billion. Especially with The Lion King breathing down it's neck. Plus, I don't know if post-Endgame it will be considered a necessary piece of the puzzle or as a stand. Alone epiogue. So, maybe...

As long as we're talking box office and superheroes, I think it's worth pointing out that we're only looking at 4 mega successes this year in what should be the high water mark between Captain Marvel, Avengers, Spider-Man, and possibly Joker. X-Men looks like a lame duck with Apocalypse giving a real black eye to the franchise, New Mutants might end up straight to VOD, and Hellboy was a flop. Shazam was a money maker, and a really good movie, but not a blow out success. Next year, only Wonder Woman appears to be a sure thing, although Birds of Prey, Black Widow, and Eternals all have upside potential. I think GotG and Black Panther are the next billion dollar successes and that's a few years out. Disney kind of gutted their library in a mad rush for the Disney+ launch and probably are going to chop off the legs of Aladdin and Toy Story 4 in the process. Obviously Mulan, The Little Mermaid, and Jungle Book 2 have potential, but releasing three remakes a year seems too much. I'm expecting something new to emerge, but no idea what. Maybe Dune will be seen as fresh.

Again, here's what you said. Which is factually incorrect. Not when we can point to the box office of A Quiet Place, Crazy Rich Asians, Ocean's 8, Halloween, and even the 50 Shades series as big box office winners. Heck, have you seen Green Book's worldwide numbers? Those might not be billion dollar films, but they all cost less than a 5th of superhero films, turned enormous profits, and were very popular. The proper response is "I expressed myself poorly. Here's what I actually meant." Not, "how dare you be a bunch of pedants that should be able to read my mind to know exactly what I meant." Big budget spectacles have been a money maker for a long time, with the birth of television being a key game changer in that respect as movies turned to scale to compete with television. And I think the combination of big screen hdtvs, chi which makes these superhero spectacles possible, and the streaming revolution all playing a role in the current state. But, honestly, I kind of think Endgame is going to be the peak. I don't see a Black Widow prequel or Eternals shattering box office records. It wouldn't be surprising if Black Panther 2 isn't quite the cultural watershed too. Genres tend not to dominate for much beyond 20 years whether musicals, westerns, noir, spy thrillers, slashers, etc. before something else rises up.

I'm annoyed you took offense at your incorrect statement and decided that you had to claim you're right by changing the argument. I don't think anyone will argue that superhero films and cartoons are massively popular and dominating the box office. But, let's not ignore that there are regularly popular films beyond that genre. Popular films that have a return on investment that's very impressive. A Star is Born had a $30 million budget and grossed over $400 million, it might have turned a bigger pure profit than many of the superhero films and certainly had a much higher return on investment. Regardless, it was every bit the popular success that The King's Speech was. A horror film with a $20 million budget that grosses $100 million, which happens regularly, is both popular and ensures more of the like. The success of musicals and quasi-musicals is going to lead to Spielberg's West Side Story and In the Heights getting made. Both of which stand a good chance at being popular and profitable. IT, chapter 2 is going to make a ton. I'll agree, we're not likely to see dramas return to box office prominence any time soon Or, westerns or buddy cop movies, but I also think genres can reinvent themselves and some of the current state is cyclical.

Bohemian Rhapsody, A Star is Born, and the horror genre say hello.

Criterion Channel launched last week and I've started on their Columbia noir collection. For those interested in what features are on it, try this link. https://films.criterionchannel.com/?fbclid=IwAR3T3K061oMjJqmtJW_3fBETPCNBWcgrD7P4y_o4I40rGrdDdaM8jC145Q4

Stalker is pretty terrific. Not at all the intimidating experience that Tarkovsky has. If it's okay to plug my podcast, we covered The Virgin Spring and Hour of the Wolf for Halloween.

Welcome back, Robert! Never really gone, just really busy.

Kanopy is something worth keeping in mind while waiting fir Criterion Channel to relaunch. It's mainly only accessible via library and university memberships, but it carries a lot of Criterions and it's free.

LADY BIRD is pretty great.

The Brewers have 17 pitchers on their active roster. Obviously not all are available, Nelson for instance, but if they can get through the first six innings there's no real difference between now and August. Frankly, I think their ought to be more games that take advantage of the expanded roster than just throwing out the number five in the rotation.

Being built to give untalented guys opportunities isn't much of a plan if you ask me. I'm not saying it's easy, but I am saying that a bullpen that's not good now and held limited possibility to yield guys that would be good in the future is the worst of both worlds. You're neither rebuilding the bullpen nor having the option to turn present value into future value.

I don't know if it's 20 / 20 hindsight to say that David Stearns built the bullpen out of a bunch of guys with limited long term value, reclamation projects, and limited upside. Some of it was bad luck, but it's not that surprising that the bullpen has been a problem. Frankly, Stearns has done more good than bad, but I think his lack of urgency about the bullpen is a hole in his strategy. After all, bullpen arms are the easiest commodity to trade at the deadline. And if you believe you are acquiring guys with potential it's not a bad idea to be prepared for that potential to emerge.

franklin is out of options. rivera--currently optioned--will burn his final option this year if he spends more than 20 days optioned to the minor leagues. unless you count ryan cordell (who is getting some action at third base), there are no other optioned infielders on the 40-man roster. this is indeed a lack of infield depth. It may be a lack of depth, but I'm fairly certain they can find a no hit utility infielder somewhere if they need to. Heck, Counsell could come out of retirement. They're not contending anyways and it's not like they'll be unable to field a team.

There are reasons to be wary of Villar, spotty defense and decision making. But, that doesn't make Gennett anything more than a below average second basemen without versatility. The long term answer at second base might be "other" but it sure wasn't Scooter.

There are times when I think Stearns is more interested in activity than progress. Maybe he's useful, although I doubt there's the available playing time at the MLB level to show that, but the upside seems limited. There are cheap, useful utility players available every year. It's not worth getting worked up about one way or another, but sometimes you wonder if Stearns suffers from ADD.

I expect Zach Davies had a sympathetic ear in regards to Cravy. It's not the first time that I think Stearns sometimes forgets he's managing people.

To me it comes down to the fact that Scooter and Rivera aren't particularly rare commodities. I don't know if Aguilar is either, but if one of the three was going to turn into something valuable, he's the one to bet on because of his power.

Here are my predictions: Here are the nominees. Best picture: “La La Land” Lead actor: Denzel Washington, “Fences” Lead actress: Emma Stone, “La La Land” Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” Supporting actress: Viola Davis, “Fences” Best director: Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” Animated feature: “Zootopia” Animated short: “Piper” Adapted screenplay: “Moonlight” Original screenplay: “Manchester by the Sea” Cinematography: “La La Land” Best documentary feature: “OJ: Made in America” Best documentary short subject: “Joe’s Violin” Best live-action short film: “Ennemis Interieurs” Best foreign language film: “Toni Erdmann” Film editing: “La La Land” Sound editing: “Arrival” Sound mixing: “La La Land” Production design: “La La Land” Original score: “La La Land” Original song: City of Stars, “La La Land” Makeup and hair: “Star Trek Beyond” Costume design: “La La Land” Visual effects: “Jungle Book” ************ FWIW, I'm up to 5 of the 8 BP nominees watched with Manchester by the Sea added to my list. I think it's pretty terrific, as it avoids most of the melodramatic pitfalls it could find itself victim of. In many ways, it's the anti-The King's Speech.

I've seen La La Land. I like La La Land. I don't know how I feel about it being the frontrunner. Certainly it's better than The Artist and Chicago for 21st century throwbacks in form. Still, I'd really like a musical to blow me away with at least one number and I don't think anything rose above "very good". In terms of songs, I liked Sing Street better. But, Stone is great, Gosling is very good, there's a bit of meat on the story, and you can't say it isn't ambitious, trying to appeal to a young modern audience and trying to uphold the form of a classic Hollywood musical, an original no less, at the same time. And bonus points for pulling the camera back. But, ultimately it's a movie that I like more than love. Still, worse movies have won Best Picture.

I expect that the marathons will be a better watch simply because there's a musical, western, war film, and science fiction film mixed into the usual bunch of dramas. Even among the dramas, I expect that Hidden Figures will be a very different experience than Manchester by the Sea. They nominated the wrong supporting actor from HELL OR HIGH WATER, imo. I don't know how you can watch that film and not think Ben Foster is the standout. Documentary is a strong category this year. That O.J. documentary was riveting over its whole run time. Animation is also very deep this year. Pixar didn't get a nomination and it may have been entirely justified. I'm expecting ZOOTOPIA to win, although maybe KUBO is a dark horse. I think TONI ERDMANN is the frontrunner in foreign language film. Those expecting MRS. DOUBTFIRE type hijinks based on the rough description should be warned that it's a lot more extreme than that type of humor. The latest political kerfuffle might help THE SALESMAN though, albeit it might be a bit too soon after A SEPARATION for a repeat foreign language film winner.

I have the afternoon off, so I'm going to start catching up. Of the nominees, here is what I've seen. “Arrival” “Hell or High Water” “Moonlight” "Loving" “Toni Erdmann” “Life, Animated” “OJ: Made in America” “Hail Caesar!” “Doctor Strange” “A Man Called Ove” “Star Trek Beyond” “Suicide Squad” “Jungle Book” "Zootopia" “Kubo and the Two Strings” “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story” “The Lobster” “20th Century Women” I regret not finding time in my schedule for "Tanna" at the Milwaukee Film Festival. Based on what I've seen and read, this is a pretty solid list of nominees. Albeit, Amy Adams was robbed. Finding Dory was not, IMO. Smaller/genre films that didn't have a chance that are worth looking for: "The Witch" for Art Direction, "The Love Witch" for Costumes, "Green Room" and "The Fits" for just being excellent films, "Sing Street" for Best Song (pick one), and John Goodman for Best Supporting Actor for "10 Cloverfield Lane". Otherwise, I don't think there's really all that much to complain about this year.

Here are the nominees. Best picture: “Arrival” “Fences” “Hacksaw Ridge” “Hell or High Water” “Hidden Figures” “La La Land” “Manchester by the Sea” “Lion” “Moonlight” Lead actor: Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea” Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge” Ryan Gosling, “La La Land,” Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic” Denzel Washington, “Fences” Lead actress: Isabelle Huppert, “Elle” Ruth Negga, “Loving” Natalie Portman, “Jackie” Emma Stone, “La La Land” Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins” Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight” Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water” Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea” Dev Patel, “Lion” Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals” Supporting actress: Viola Davis, “Fences” Naomie Harris, “Moonlight” Nicole Kidman, “Lion” Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures” Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea” Best director: Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival” Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge” Damien Chazelle, “La La Land” Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea” Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight” Animated feature: “Kubo and the Two Strings” “Moana” “My Life as a Zucchini” “The Red Turtle” “Zootopia” Animated short: “Blind Vaysha” “Borrowed Time” “Pear Cider and Cigarettes” “Pearl” “Piper” Adapted screenplay: “Arrival” “Fences” “Hidden Figures” “Lion” “Moonlight” Original screenplay: “Hell or High Water” “La La Land” “The Lobster” “Manchester by the Sea” “20th Century Women” Cinematography: “Arrival” “La La Land” “Lion” “Moonlight” “Silence” Best documentary feature: “Fire at Sea” “I Am Not Your Negro” “Life, Animated” “OJ: Made in America” “13th” Best documentary short subject: “Extremist” “4.1 Miles” “Joe’s Violin” “Watani My Homeland” “The White Helmets” Best live-action short film: “Ennemis Interieurs” “La Femme et le TGV” “Silent Nights” “Sing” “Timecode” Best foreign language film: “A Man Called Ove” “Land of Mine” “Tanna” “The Salesman” “Toni Erdmann” Film editing: “Arrival” “Hacksaw Ridge” “Hell or High Water” “La La Land” “Moonlight” Sound editing: “Arrival” “Deep Water Horizon” “Hacksaw Ridge” “La La Land” “Sully” Sound mixing: “Arrival” “Hacksaw Ridge” “La La Land” “Rogue One” “13 Hours” Production design: “Arrival” “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” “Hail Caesar!” “La La Land” “Passengers” Original score: “Jackie” “La La Land” “Lion” “Moonlight” “Passengers” Original song: Audition, “La La Land” Can’t Stop the Feeling!, “Trolls” City of Stars, “La La Land” The Empty Chair, “Jim: The James Foley Story” How Far I’ll Go, “Moana” Makeup and hair: “A Man Called Ove” “Star Trek Beyond” “Suicide Squad” Costume design: “Allied” “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” “Florence Foster Jenkins” “Jackie” “La La Land” Visual effects: “Deepwater Horizon” “Doctor Strange” “Jungle Book” “Kubo and the Two Strings” “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story”

The Academy Awards nominations come out next week, always a good excuse for a movie discussion topic. I'd say that the following are the frontrunners for the Best Picture nominations, probably in about this order of likelihood. LA LA LAND MOONLIGHT ARRIVAL MANCHESTER BY THE SEAS HELL OR HIGH WATER FENCES LION HIDDEN FIGURES HACKSAW RIDGE I'd say that the top five are virtual locks and there's some play in the rest. I suppose that JACKIE, LOVING, 20TH CENTURY WOMEN, and surprisingly DEADPOOL are the wild cards that could sneak in as well. I'll have more to say later, but any thoughts on the potential nominations or 2016 in film in general?

Considering that there have been qualifying offer free agents floating around into spring training the last few years, I don't know if having late flexibility is really a problem for Texas. Honestly, there's always that Loogy or other fungible reliever floating around too. I don't see the 40th guy on the roster being the difference between Texas competing or not competing.