sbrylski
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Everything posted by sbrylski
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The Sox could use a backup catcher as well...
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If Brendan Donnelly only landed a AA pitcher, I'm not optimistic what Turnbow would bring in.
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I agree Al, I'd welcome the move, I'd just wince like crazy. That sums it up well.
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What's weird is that I haven't turned on Turnbow. It's the hair.
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I think he would provide good depth and replace Davis as our guy who's pretty much guaranteed to pitch 190 innings. So why didn't we just resign Davis for 3/21, a crapload cheaper than 4/45 or whatever Suppan would take. Then traded Eveland + something for Estrada straight up. Money saved could be spent on a reliever instead of Alquino. (I'm on this weird crusade tonight.)
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Hawing, why the hate? I'm honestly suprised by all the no's. (Not just all your no's, but other no's as well.)
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"He's still a productive pitcher, and he's a durable guy," Melvin said. "He has won 44 games the past three seasons." Now Melvin is putting stock in pitching wins? He pitched for a top offensive team in the bigs the past three seasons. P.S. I sound really anti-Suppan, but I do think he would help the team. He should put up a 4.50 ERA and be good for close to 200 innings. I just don't like the amount of money we'd have to pay for a guy like that. Maybe I'm still trying to wrap my head around the brain teaser free agency has become.
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And Jeff Weaver had a postseason ERA of 2.43 last year after posting a 5.76 ERA for the regular season. The small samples the postseason provide don't hold much weight to me, though I'd defintely rather see that he had prior success.
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Since when do Eckstein and Belliard equal stellar defense? At those two vital spots, they are average at best. The Cardinals were statistically #1 in defense last year. (Haven't looked that up myself, it was posted earlier in this thread by RedbirdRay, IIRC.) And only 3 years of 8 have been in SL. I've only been looking at the last three years.
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...members here didnt need to argue with one another. Isn't that why I'm here? To debate? As long as we are keeping our head and being civilized.
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If that's the main argument, I don't see why park-adjusted ERA is any worse an indicator of future success than FIP-based ERA. I don't understand. ERA and ERA+ are soley based on how many runners crossed the plate. FIP based ERA is based on everything but that to find out how many runners should have crossed the plate on average. They are completely different stats. That might be the case, but in 6 of his 8 years, his ERA has been better than league average. This has some legs. I'll acknowledge that whatever he is doing is working, because he has kept his ERA consistently below his FIP and well below his xFIP. However, like me and Ennder have been saying, this could be partially because of the Cardinal's stellar defense.
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Here's my study. Sorry for the width. I took the 18 pitchers with ERA's between 3.50 and 4.00 last year and plotted out how their K/9 rate effected their number of innings per start. http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d175/sbrylski06/kipstudy.jpg According to this, the claim made by Danny K that stated more K's will result in less IP is actually false. The trend line shows that a pitcher with a higher rate of strikeouts will actually tend to pitch deeper into games.
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Suppan's ERA+ numbers from 1999-2006 Again, ERA is a poor predictor of future success.
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I'm not sure I understand your study... Aren't you comparing IP/G with ERA? Because you used pitchers with varying ERAs, won't that effect their IP/G more than the K's? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm going to run a few numbers comparing pitchers with similar ERAs and how there K/9 and IP/G compare.
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Wow, a lot of negativity towards DeJean! He did well for us - 3.50 ERA And he's had a very solid FIP the two years prior to last years injury - 3.70. Again, I'd take him.
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that seems crazy. By the stats, Suppan has been solid-to-good since 1999. Vargas is a fairly young guy who hasn't done much, but has shown glimpses of what he can do. I more of meant from here going foward. I like Vargas as much or more than I like Suppan over the next three years.
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There's not a team in baseball with 3 better SP's than Suppan, never mind 4. Simply put, that's just an untrue statement. Sheets, Capuano, Bush Suppan=Vargas
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I don't understand how ERA is an overrated stat. I just feel it tells how a pitcher has pitched in the past moreso than how he will do in the future. K/BB, FIP, and xFIP are some stats that I feel should be used to help predict future success. ERA tells what a pitcher has done while FIP tells what a pitcher should have done. Suppan's ERA has been good, but his FIP has been nothing special. He could easily find his ERA drop near his 4.60 FIP or 4.71 xFIP over the past three years, especially without a great defense behind him.
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I'm guessing those that have a higher opinion of him but a lot more stock in ERA which I consider a mostly useless stat, it can even make Russ Ortiz look good if you put him in the right situation, even though his secondary numbers always stunk. The only thing I can do in this thread is wait until Ennder post something. Then I can quote it and say: I agree.
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I never liked how he wore that big chain around his neck (IIRC). But he could be a good guy to bring in. His '04 and '05 FIP's were 3.86 and 3.75 respectively. Coming off shoulder surgery of couse, so it'd be somewhat of a risk.
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How do you put the honey (or whatever that stuff is) on the hook? Whenever I try, Link just drinks the honey. For whatever reason, that line is really funny.
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I'm not sure how he's worse than Jenkins or even mentioned in the same breath with Mench. Did you see the three year averages that were posted? Jenkins is definately better, and Mench is also about a .800 OPS corner OFer with bad defense.
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I am in agreement with Ennder. I'd rather take a flyer on someone like Brian Lawrence. Maybe John Thomson.
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We really do not need a low K, 1.40 WHIP type pitcher who has only had a decent ERA the past few years because STL has had the best defense in the NL. Suppan would be a disaster signing in my opinion, I'd have more faith in Vargas than in Suppan. Agreed. His ERA is skewed for some reason, probably StL's great defense. I like Vargas just as much, and I think Suppan will drop off outside of StL.
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No thanks, especially at the cost he will demand. Vargas beat him on K/9 and BB/9 over the past two years, and had a better WHIP last year.
