BrewCrewRising

I think it must have been last night when they were pondering who to call up and decided to go with TGJ instead. That is unless another player is injured and we haven't heard about it.

Ah! This is the kind of rationlization-narcotic I was looking for! But according to baseball-reference.com Soriano is a career .282 hitter. His OBP the last year and a half have been beyond his career norms however. Now if we could just combine that ju-ju with the predictions from another thread predicting the pitching would come back down to earth too.

There are three different formulae though, right? What doesn't sit right by me is that the Cubs expected wins and losses are tempered by their overall record. Now they might not be as good as they have been since June 1, but they certainly aren't as bad as they were in April-May. So, if before the season they were projected to win 97 games (just making that up, I don't really know) then why use the record to project their win rate instead of those "talent" projections? If they win at a 97 win rate the rest of the year, that gives them a little over 90 wins. I sometimes wonder (especially after Hall's injury) if we'll win 90. Losing 3 of 4 to the Bucs makes it hard to think that we'll sustain a competitive pace. I want to believe that we have an 80% chance of being in the playoffs. I want to believe even more that we'll win the division. More than that, I want to believe that we make the playoffs and the Cubs don't (although it would be great to beat them for the NLCS.) I'm just wondering, if the Cubs have fewer wins than their expected win totals, then shouldn't we expect them to actually play at a frantic pace the rest of the year and possibly take 90+ games and possibly the division? I'm asking.

OK...I just got back from seeing The Police at Wrigley. I would have enjoyed it a lot more if some meathead behind me wasn't talking the whole time. I think it's just the Wrigley effect. Anyway, there were all sorts of happy Cubs fans out there because the Cubs picked up another game on the Crew. If I'm a Cub fan I'm feeling good because they have been playing very well, and the Crew looks very catchable right now. We're still 4.5 up, but the Cubs have gone 22-12 since June 1st. A few weeks ago a Chicago Sun Times columnist (can't remember his name) said, "If the Cubs play at the same pace they have played in their last 21 games, they'll win 90 games, and probably win the division." I had to laugh that off a bit because this guy was cherry picking the nicest stretch of baseball the Cubs had played up to that point. But, I do have to ask: How long do you think the Cubs will keep up this pace? Russ said above (a few weeks ago) that the division will be a dogfight between the Crew and the Cubs. Every day I look at the adjusted standings and playoff odds at baseballprospectus.com and feel some comfort that the Cubs aren't really expected to win more than about 85-89 games (depending on which formulae are used), and the Crew is expected to win 89-93. But then a day like today happens and I ask myself, can we sustain 90+ pace, especially with potentially disasterous injuries? Could the Cubs play at about .610+ clip the rest of the year and win 90+ games? I don't buy the 'They're chokers' because every team is until that one time they manage not to. I'm wondering what people think (though I'm secretly hoping that Russ posts one of those cool multi-color 3D graphs saying that it's more likely for one of us to get hit in the head by a falling bean bag with an image of the Virgin Mary than it is for the Cubs to win the division.)

source: www.mlbtraderumors.com/ which quoted Ken Rosenthal Bourn this year in 70 AB: .286/.375/.357 Gwynn this in 83 AB: .301/.363/.349 Career in Minors: Bourn: 1552 AB's - .285/.372/.393 Gwynn: 1726 AB's - .271/.345/.343 Bourn is obviously the player you want in a trade, but if Bourn straight up for Otsuka gets it done, I have to imagine a package with Gwynn and a good pitching prospect (Jackson?) gets that job done unless Jon Daniels just has a fixin' for Bourn. But who knows how reliable or in-depth the rumor is. I like Gwynn, but I have to agree with all those who say he is blocked. He'd be a nice 4th outfielder to have, but I'd rather exchange him and a blocked pitcher for a veteran RP with a great track record.

I was kidding. I figured the irony of someone not living up to a thread's fantasies was obvious enough so as to omit the blue. I'm really happy to see Billy tearing it up again. I'm almost happier that it seems like the Crew seems to heat up in shifts so when somebody slows down, somebody else is picking up the slack (except for May which sucked all across the board it seemed.)

Pretty good, but not what you'd expect from a guy who had a 23 page thread of praises and hyperboles about him last year ("Can Bill Hall Pitch&quothttp://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif . He needs to live up to our random and high expectations. Them's the breaks. Edit: Put intended ironic statements in blue.

I can accept the fact that we will lose "easy" games every now and then. It's the other side of the coin of being able to beat teams like Detroit on the road. However, as long as the Cubs are hot, I just want us to be hotter. If they are going to go 5-2 on the road this week, then I want us to go 6-1. Yes, I know it's unreasonable, but the Cubs make me nervous and the fans bug me so much.

Can you do an MLB game cast over the iPhone? And would you be able to use the audio subscription to MLB.com with it? If anybody has done this or tried this, I'd be interested to know. Thanks.

Point taken. I just thought there was this pervasive talked about "HR Derby Funk/Jinx" just like they said about the World Baseball Classic last year.

I'd for Prince to put on a show, but haven't hitters gone to the derby in past years and then had a lousy second half? I'd love for Prince to have his day, but the Crew comes first!

That we lost today annoys me, just because I had to be there for the Friday walk off HR. Also, I'm not happy about the Cubs owning the series 7-5 right now. But, I just found this out: The Cubs announcers on WGN were crowing over the fact that they had a great June where they went 18-11. The Crew went 17-10. So, the Cubs had two extra games to gain ground, and didn't. On June 1st they were 6.5 back, and they are now as well after their great June. I just hope their bullpen is a little tired going on the road this week. Ugh...I can't stand them winning.

Miller has been doing this for years (at least 2). A few years ago there was a sign that said, "No sausage races and roofs here, just beer and baseball" or something like that. I know it's the almighty dollar, but it's called MILLER park for Pete's sake, and the team is the "Brewers" to honor the MIlwaukee brewing tradition. The only reason I ever drink MIller is out of loyalty to my hometown (and if there is nothing else decent on tap or for sale). All this does is wane my loyalty. This just makes me realize that it's not a Milwaukee brewery, but rather a multi-national concern with a brewery in Milwaukee.

I'm impressed with how he improved in his later college years. Because of the spring buzz around Capellan's antics and the thought of a trade, I think a lot of people thought we could get more than a A+ pitcher. But I trust that DM and GA did their due dillegence in exploring the trades. But I do wonder what teams like Florida (reportedly interested in making a trade for Capellan) were offering for him. In any case, I hope this guy proves to be a great 'nugget' find by DM and crew. Edit: changed 'reliever' to 'pitcher'.

Yes. Except that one of the apples has a better life time OBP and fielding numbers. Slugging-wise it's almost a wash. I get what people are saying in that it probably wouldn't be that cost-efficient for what would probably be only a minimal upgrade. I guess a lot of my suggestion was based on sentimentality. And it always just seems to me that Loretta is going to get a hit, and I don't think that about Tony (again, who I like well enough.) But I do wonder if we'll see one of these less-than-sexy, lower impact trades this year. Last year DM's hand was forced becaus of injuries. I'm suspecting we won't see many lower visibility trades (aside from the obvious get rid of an OF if possible for a RP) just because the chemistry and production are probably decent enough compared to what we'd have to pay. Thanks for your comments everybody.

I agree. The only thing that worries me though is Marshall. He's been good since his call up. That said, I have had a postive vibe about this series from the get-go. The loss yesterday was heartbreaking, but it's not like the Cubs whooped us or anything.

I just knew you were going to post that. I just knew that. My day is blown.

That is an awesome post plain and simple. Well put! I like Wrigley well enough, but it's flaws are many. I do think once you are in your seat, assuming you are seated in on of the 22,000 seats that are worth watching a game from, that's a good place to see a game. The fact that Cubs have never won a world series there make me like it even more. It's the "Fans" in the seats that always kill it for me. Yesterday we had these chatty girls behind us who would have been better off at a bar than at a game. But I'm sure to them it is a bar. My sister is part of a season ticket package with some friends (an embarrasment to me, but sometimes I can score the Crew tickets off her for face value) and the fans in that section are actually pretty hilarious. They're pretty knowledgable and jaded, and they have been pretty complimentary of the Crew in the last few seasons. It's easy to find the negativity with Wrigley especially after a game like yesterday. But at the end of the day, it's not like all our fans are saints or anything. It's just that when we witness Brewer fans being dorks, we just think that, 'hey, at least they have good taste in baseball teams.'

I agree with Brian. I was saying that all through the game. All I'm really worried about right now is that Marshall continues his hot streak. Otherwise, I have to say.... 1. Gallardo....still looking composed under pressure. 2. Mench added some trade value to his resume. 3. None of us are Cubs fans. That is all.

I guess I was thinking that they'd still need a utility IF to replace Loretta for this year (both are just 1 year contracts I believe). Loretta is still a 35 year old rental IF and I don't think he'd command that much in a trade. We paid a struggling JDLR for a utility IF last year.

The Astros, unless somebody has whitewashed over the writing on the wall and they can't read it, will be sellers this year. I have read a few rumors that they might want to trade Loretta. The Crew obviously has no pressing need for him, but he would be an upgrade over Graffanino (who I like well enough, but he's no Loretta). Loretta is only a year older, has better lifetime batting and fielding numbers, and is 1M cheaper. So would that be too expensive a move to make? Would the Astros take Graffy, cash, and a Cappelan/Aquino/SomeOtherGuy as a trade? If you're Doug Melvin do you do this? This isn't as much of a suggestion as a "wondering what you all think?" post. I have always been impressed with Loretta (except when he grounded out to lose the last game at County Stadium. Sue me, I'm easily embittered.)

It just seems so strange to me that: 1) Buehrle would take a huge discount when he could sign with the Cards or at least test the FA market. 2) That he'd just dimiss the possibility of playing for the Cards. 3) That the White Sox were purportedly the instigators of the Red Sox rumor and that they are now saying that they are close to an extension. I'm guessing, just guessing that it's posturing by Kenny Williams to up the ante. But that's just me.

I used to hate Ron Santo, but now he just cracks me up. You'll find that announcers always lag between the play and the announcement, but with Santo you always know RIGHT AWAY. I think Pat Hughes is a great announcer, and I can forgive him announcing for the Cubs. In any event, I find that when he speaks of the Brewers, whether it be in the standings, or anecdotally, he does so with respect and admiration. Len Kaspar on the other hand is a sellout and and I wouldn't care if his career gets Steve-Stoned to death.

I'm going Friday and Saturday. Sunday will be a game day decision. Was going to sit in the bleachers on Friday, but traded those in for Terrace Reserved along the 3rd base line. Fewer meatheads in the reserved seats.