BrewCrewRising

I never thought to consider that the SS market might afford us some leverage for Bill Hall. Of course given that contract it may be just trading him for something of marginal value, but it might be one of those mutual "Change of scenery" scenarios like McClung for Balfour (and this time we're the team making out...I can just dream).think I see most people say that you don't really rebuild. You maybe cast off a core player or two (or one and a core-ish type guy). I'm going to try a pincer movement to address the problems for the Crew right now and areas we could rebuild. We need more OBP guys, and we need help in the bullpen. I'll start with the bullpen: Gone are the days I think where Melvin could parlay anybody into something, so don't know how much a possibility there is there to gain anything. There might be a possible exception with McClung there, as perhaps some team would take a chance on him as a starter since he proved intriguing there. One could argue that we could be the ones to take that risk, but I don't think the talent level of this team should allow for that risk. Gagne is a goner. Thank the maker. Mota is a FA, and I'm 50/50 on offering him arby. I think there's a reasonable chance somebody signs him, and then we get the pick. If not, he's worth a little less than 3M in arby (3.2 this year according to MLB4U.com.) He's not a lynchpin guy in the bullpen, but if he was used correctly, his just under 4.0 ERA could serve a purpose. Edit: Mota would net us no picks. So, I'm about 49/51 on this I guess. I still think he could be a decent filler if used correctly. But he can be a wildcard though. If Shouse could be signed for a little less than his 2M, he'd be worth a shot just to have the LOOGY in the pen. But of course, the opportunities to use him correctly are limited. Depending on the manager we have next year Shouse could be an asset. Emotionally, I'd like to see Riske no more, but one can assume his injury had a lot to do with his performance. But because of his contract, I guess we he have to drive him around the block at least once more. So , it shakes out (in my quick analysis here) that we lose Gagne, McClung (via trade). So, we need to find another BP guy, and a possible closer. For the lineup, I think we do try to trade Bill Hall as a SS. We look for a RH 3B via FA or trade that is solid enough. I'm not sure yet. But if we took on a 3B who knows he'll be a platoon player, I think you remove some of the drama there, and 3B platoons have been fairly productive for us. There may be a better route for a legit 3B starter, but none come to mind right now. We dangle Corey Hart. I think he has reasonable value. A lot of here aren't total fans of him right now, but that is largely an emotional response to the collapse right now. He has good numbers for the most part though, and he's young and cheap.( I'd even say we keep him, but in this post I'm throwing around ideas to increase OBP). I would say we dangle Weeks, except that his value right now is low, and he's still fairly cheap. His OBP isn't bad. I'm on the fence here about Rickie. Emotionally, I'd like to see him go. Strategically, I think the best idea might be to listen to offers, otherwise keep him and see what another year will do. It isn't like there is an heir apparent for him. In my dream world, instead of having an heir apparent for JJ, we'd have that heir apparent for Rickie, and we could solve two problems at once. But alas. So, for now, I think: Dangle: Weeks (unlikely biters), Hart (likely biters), McClung (toss up), Bill Hall (toss up). Pray: somebody has a need for Suppan. Listen to offers on: Prince and JJ, but I would posture on "they're untouchable unless you blow me away". Since I'm going for OBP here, even Prince when he's cold is good in that regard compared to the rest of the Crew. JJ stays just for the security of knowing what you're getting. I guess he'd still be good trade bait next off season as well. Look for a couple of intriguing RP (who may be closers, but don't be suckered into spending a lot of money on a closer). Look for a 3B option, and even a possible platoon 3B. In any case, try to use that option to increase OBP. Look for a stop gap solution to RF until Gamel comes up. In truth, though I advocated possibly trading Corey, I don't have any replacements to offer as solutions right now. (for being as verbose as I am in this post, I am sure lazy on solutions.) Look for a better backup catcher, or at least give Rivera a shot. Maybe we give him his shot and depending on how things are next midseason, we bring up one of our prospects. I'm 50/50 on what to do about Cameron. I'm not in love with him, but he's been OK in truth. But since we may be looking at unknown quantities in RF and 3B, I'm not sure how risky to be with CF. Obviously this is very incomplete. I'm kind of thinking outloud here. I think we have to look at the rotation more, and think about the OF more. Bullpen is going to be a little from within, and some through trades. I don't advocate any big FA signings for RP. But essentially, I look to shore up OBP, and the bullpen.

What steams me about Torres is that he said we'd catch the Cubs. And then he repeated it late last week. Then he basically gives up all the runs to possible to the Cubs to ensure that his vow can not come true.

I can see the point of not rebuilding to any extent, but I don't know the extent that we can strengthen the team around any of our best players right now. As you said, the bullpen needs to be addressed and I think last off season showed that it's not easy to try and overhaul the bullpen in one offseason. If we did only get the one more spot in the rotation, as you suggested how competitive could we be? I don't think we're going to see the Cubs get any worse, and I think the Astros know that they're only a few pieces away from being a whole lot better. I'm truly curious how you envision how the team would shake out and how competitive we'd be vis-a-vis the Cubs, Astros, and maybe even Cardinals.

To be honest, I don't have much hope for next season. This year is showing a whole lot of holes and it's going to take more than one year to fill those holes. Also, losing Sheets and CC will hurt. Gallardo is great, but who knows how he'll get back in the swing of things. So the question I have (and I don't have my own answer really) is do we start rebuilding now and trading high value players? And what do we target? It might be worth it to trade Prince and/or JJ and get somebody's near top prospects and maybe some intriguing young pitching. Their value is high now both in terms of production (Prince not at his apex, but you have to believe that all GM's would compete for him if he were dangled) and in terms of their statuses (Arbitration for two more years). There are is the other set of players that might be nice for somebody's team that are not top tier trade targets. I'm thinking of players like Corey Hart and Bush. I like Corey, but his low OBP coupled with his K tendency bugs me a bit and he's not stellar defensively. But he could be intriguing to some teams. Bush is exactly OK, but has finished this year (so far) on a fairly upbeat note. Some team needing pitching but not wanting to spend too much might be inclined to move for him. Then there are the players who I'd just like to jettison. Those are players like Hall and Weeks. Weeks might fall into the above category if some other team buys into the "high ceiling" argument, but his stats are not sexy at all. Hall would be hard to move, so maybe we eat that one, or trade and eat some salary and take lesser prospects. I know it sounds like I'm trying to trade the whole team, but I just think we're a few years away now from any real contending. I'm not advocating a Marlins type fire sale, but I wonder if we wouldn't be better served than to speed up a Twins-type mature player transition scenario where you just trade a player or a two a year to keep costs down. What are your thoughts?

I think that way undervalues Fielder to be honest. His current "bust" season boasts .272/.371/.873 with 32 bombs. He is a year removed from 50. It also undervalues Hardy on the current market. He leads all NL SS in RBI's and is third in all the majors in OPS. There is supposedly a large demand for SS on the trade market this year. These guys have a couple of years before FA. Though I like Cain, he's just not worth the both of them. What is more, Cain would be entering a rebuilding Brewers and so we'd really only find his best value a few years from now, IMHO.

I guess the Mets splitting a 4 game series with the Nationals was sort of a gift. I'm wondering how people see the mets performing over the remainder of the season. The Mets are 6-9 against the Braves this year, but most of the losses came at their grizzly beginning of the season and were under Randolph at the helm. The Braves just lost 3 straight to the Phils, but 2 of the games were pretty close. Phillie has better pitching than NY right now, and definitely a better bullpen. I'm worried that the Mets might actually play the Cubs well if the Cubs clinch soon. If the Cubs clinch, do they just sit all the regular pitchers right away and let them rest, or do they play the Mets fairly tough in order to gage them for the playoffs? The Mets have a winning record against the Fish this year. I suppose the odds say they'll win that series, but I'll just play the irrational rationalization card and say that the Fish play spoiler in that series. So, what are people's predictions? According to another thread, we're finishing out 8-1. What will the Mets do?

Except that both the Mets and Phillies finish with higher average wins than the Brewers do. So it stands to reason that since the model predicts that if two teams who are possible WC competitors both finish with higher expected win totals, that those teams should have a higher chance of winning the WC. If the Phillies in the simulation win the division more, it's not like their winning it somehow makes the Mets finish with fewer games than the Brewers and gives the Brewers a better chance at the WC? Not that it matters. After today I'm convinced we're sunk.

I have a question, but not specific to the excel spreadsheet (Which is really cool, thank you Russ) and I didn't want to create a new thread. In Baseball Prospectus PECOTA based playoff percentage odds, the Brewers have a higher chance of winning the Wild Card than the Mets, but they average about a game fewer wins in the projections than the Mets. How is that possible?

Another thing about Svuem that strikes me as Yostian is his insistience that he won't look at numbers to figure out the rotation from here on in. Stubbornly putting Bush against the Cubs because he's been good lately? He didn't handle the Phillies or Mets so very well in recent starts. I feel like this team is falling apart faster than I anticpated. I think there is going to be another long rebuilding process, and with a Brewers fan's luck, it will coincide with a resurgence of another NL Central Club.

I read an article recently at baseball prospectus about pitcher abuse points where they point out that there is no difference in injury history or pitching performance between 4 and 5 man rotations IF you keep the pitch count low on the pitchers. So, you could move to a 4 man rotation if you were responsible with the pitch counts.

Did he give any reasons why the scout thought if any team would stumble it would be the Brewers? Was it because of Yost, or just that the don't think highly of the players talent level? (edit: long quote --1992)

I think someone should start a "Bring Back Yost" thread. Just for fun. Otherwise, I say we move to get Charlie O'Brien hired as manager. I think if go after ex-Brewer backup catchers that eventually we'll hit it.

If (just if) the Brewers were to go to the post-season (knocking on a forest full of wood here) what would happen to Kapler?

I agree with the premise of the original poster, the safest way to aquire quality production for the rotation is via trade, and signing Teixeira would allow the Brewers to deal the massive and massively disappointing Fielder for pitching help. This just doesn't make sense to me. You'd basically be signing a FA who'll command a lot on the open market, and who would tie up a lot of resources. Fielder is slumping now, so we'd sell low on him. If he's so disappointing, what kind of real pitching help could we get? Unless you're advocating that what you're selling is the promise that Fielder is really better than he's been playing. It would be best to let him rebound a bit and then sell him. He may not be as great as he was last season, but he's not as bad as he is now.

That is a great point. Although I'd rather we take two wins from May and put them here in September. Because then we could start the "We're 55-32 since May!" mantra.

I was thinking the same thing about Kendall and Counsell. I can see wanting to preserve players in case you go to extras, but there is no excuse for that with all the call ups there. Russ, I remember you saying last year with the Cubs in August that you wouldn't want to switch places with them. Turns out we should have. Thing is, Philly has a very easy schedule the rest of the season. Us (debatable), Florida, Atlanta, Washington. We have the Cubs and the Phllies. I know that you would say there is still and X% chance that they sweep those teams to force us to start taking series and make sweeps of our own, but it's still a scary easy schedule they have.

How did Palmisano fall from grace? His AA numbers, though not riveting didn't seem horrible. Is it just that we have better catchers in the pipeline? What happens to Palmisano now?

According to the Sun Times he should be back soon and they don't expect it should really hurt him down the stretch. I don't know too much about what this does to pitchers over all. Can they just inject, inject, inject him so he doesn't feel any pain and pitch like his normal self?

I look at it the other way around... shouldn't we be offering Fielder and some other things for Lincecum? Fielder has a ton of value, I think more than Cain and a prospect would represent. If I'm trading Fielder this offseason (which I don't think I would, given his power outage), I'd offer Fielder and Hart for Lincecum, Winn, and a pitching prospect or Brian Wilson. I'd love Lincecum. He and Gallardo coupled together as a 1-2 punch would be awesome. But I think your proposal would be an overpay. Winn has been good, but his OPS is just a click under .800 this year, and he's old and getting older. Corey still has a lot of value and is starting to turn heads beyond the borders of Brewers Nation, and like you said, Fielder has a ton of value. Fielder may be having a power outage, but a power hitter is a better gamble than an elite pitcher unless you just know that pitcher will never be injured. And you can just never know that. So, IMHO, that would be a dear price to pay to get Lincecum.

But remember what happened after each of those sweeps. That's the only positive I can glean from this series.

Please note that I'm in panic mode right now. So, I admit I'm overreacting. But still, it's not that I think the pitching is horrible, I just wonder if it's enough to get the job done. Russ sarcastically questions above, "you mean we don't have five aces in our rotation" to point out that we don't. Nate82 points out that we have a great team ERA. But anybody will point out that Bush and Suppan pitched way over their heads in August to help those numbers along.We don't after all have five aces in the rotation. If Bush and Suppan regress to their lifetime averages, and if we have to depend on a bullpen full of holes, I have to wonder how far we can into the playoffs if we get there at all. We have yet to win a game in a month where the Phillies have an easy schedule. In real life I try to teeter between concern (occasionally tipping to panic) and optimism. But I need to excercise my panic now.

I was feeling temporarily better after reading some of the voices of reason here, but then Dave Bush got on the mound today. Yikes. Aside from CC and Sheets (who may be hurt), I don't feel like our pitching is fundamentally sound. It has moments of solidness and even occasional brilliance, but overall. Yikes.

I'm too superstitious to find any kind of advantage in this. I believe too much in ghostly karmatic baseball gods who mete out misfortune equal to that wished upon, or celebrated on account of, an opposing team's player. I was secretly hopeful/happy when Zambrano couldn't start on Sunday and then Sheets gets pulled on Monday in the 5th. I wish Zambrano a speedy recovery.

I thought I'd put all the panic and calls to relax in one thread. We'll see how it works. Right now I want to panic a little. Tonight we lost our second in a row to the Mets. What bothers me is that we lost because of shoddy defense, and we lost in extra innings at home. The bullpen is shaky, the Phillies and Mets have easy schedules, and the press says the Cubs are probably going to win the World Series. Baseball Prospectus says we're likely to win the playoffs, but that's what they said last year and look what happened. Besides, even if we get to the playoffs, we'll probably play the Mets and look how that is working out. Talk me down! (or else you're welcome to panic. Why not.)

I find it hard to think of the Cubs as our allies. I know for the sake of the wild card it's true, but I'm wondering if anybody will beat them in the post season. I'm thinking way ahead here, and anything can happen, but that pitching is pretty good. Ours not so much with the exception of CC and Benny. The rest is either undependable or darn shaky.