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Fatter than Joey

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Everything posted by Fatter than Joey

  1. Fatter than Joey
    I'm leaning towards that 'double steal' being a blown hit and run myself, Even I can't believe Yost would call a H&R with Rivera batting. Of course, he also got picked off second base in the first game of the year, That was 100% a knucklehead play by Hall. but that throw knocked Zambrano out of the game, so we have to give Bill props for that. Really? How so? -- I mean if the throw hurt Z, Hall didn't to get out.
  2. Fatter than Joey
    He was probably making some post-game brownies for his teammates in between innings
  3. Fatter than Joey
    the Brewers' defense will be considerably improved from last year, Yesterday was pretty sketchy. We could be improved and still bad. I thought last year was a pretty good year with regard to injuries -- hopefully this year won't be any different
  4. Fatter than Joey
    I don't think we know at this point whether or not we can say with certainty what kind of base-stealer Hall is right now. We obviously don't have enough to think that he should always have the green light, but there isn't enough to suggest he is horrible either. He's obviously is a fast dude -- but I have seen enough to conclude that he should be nailed to the base.
  5. Fatter than Joey
    But since Rivera was swinging at the pitch I'm going with a hit and run. I am not sure calling a H&R with Rivera up makes me feel better. With the slugging on our team I am not sure if 75% is high enough to break even. I agree 100% Logan. These guys have good enough wheels (Hart scoring from 2nd on a FC), I am not sure taking risks with stealing is a great idea.
  6. Fatter than Joey
    I knew a gal Anita Koch
  7. Fatter than Joey
    Parra
  8. Fatter than Joey
    I suspect that Bush isnt going to get bumped from the rotation unless he gets crushed
  9. Fatter than Joey
    I'm pretty sure it would be higher than 4.63 since a better RP(Cordero) came in and saved runs from scoring on Turnbow multiple times. Exactly -- Turnbow got bailed out by Cordero, Villy and Parra last year. Turnbow let 12 of 14 inherited runners score last year -- Turnbow relieving Turnbow would be ugly... bad innings are much more likely vs. philadelphia than they are san francisco. That has nothing to do with the independence of events -- Philly v. SF would be averaged out in the "Runs per appearance".
  10. Fatter than Joey
    If they are not independent--bad innings tend to cluster within a game rather than scatter across all games--then the blowup happens less frequently. I don't buy this. You are saying that Turnbow is more likely to have a bad inning if another pitcher already had a bad inning?
  11. Fatter than Joey
    First of all, if you assume the results for 7th, 8th, and 9th are independent, the number is closer to 34% of the time than 35%. I am not sure this is significant -- I was using rough numbers Second, those outcomes aren't independent--big innings are more likely to be followed by big innings than would be expected by random, so it would be less frequent than that. I cannot understand the point you are making here. Third, if my pen is giving up 2 or more runs per 3 innings in less than (probably) 30% of the games, that's really not bad. The other assumption I made is that they are giving up 2 runs, yet finishing the IP -- in reality they would not be able to get three outs on average. I am quite certain that if you had 3 Derrick Turnbow 2007 clones working in the BP, 7th 8th and 9th -- that ERA would be over 5.
  12. Fatter than Joey
    bottom line, 10.+ ERA is not going to put the dolphins in the dump truck
  13. Fatter than Joey
    I like how you have MA in between Bucky Jacobsen and Snappy the Turtle, by a loose bobble head. What is Mark A. holding in his hand? an electronic shock device for Yost?
  14. Fatter than Joey
    Woah, its time to part ways? I couldn't disagree more. I don't think BtA meant DFA Bush, I'd certainly explore trades, but I suspect that first outing didn't drive up Bush's value any. I think Yost could have helped out Bush yesterday with a quicker hook. I understand that there are some games where you give up 5 runs in the first inning, and someone has to get you to the seventh --- but I think this game was very winnable if Bush would have been PH for in his last AB.
  15. Fatter than Joey
    Knight would be an odd choice. He'd give the school tons of exposure but you gotta figure he's only going to be around for two or three years tops and can you really expect championship caliber teams in that time? He's been to one Sweet Sixteen the last 13 or so seasons and hasn't been to a Final Four since 1992. If I were Marquette I'd focus elsewhere unless all they care about is publicity. I agree 100% -- If Marquette hired Knight this Saturday -- it would probably get more attention than the actual games being played. That said, I don't think Knight helps Marq. get to the next level, i.e. Sweet Sixteen appearances. Ironically I think the perfect sort of job for Knight is a program like Indiana -- i.e. A storied program, that is currently circling the toilet. That is to say, I think Knight takes a program out of the toilet and makes them an instant 20 win program -- but I don't think Knight takes a 20 win program and gets them into annual sweet sixteen appearances.
  16. Fatter than Joey
    Absolutely no one was even thinking about the Bucks taking Paul. Correct. It was all Marvin Williams or Bogut. I was always impressed with how Bogut wanted to embrace Milwaukee. I am not a big NBA guy, but it seems Bogut is pretty solid on and off the court.
  17. Fatter than Joey
    Yeah -- I seem to remember Wegman playing the OF some.
  18. Fatter than Joey
    My problem with Bush is that Yost seems to think because Bush is a SP he needs to throw 100 pitches and pitch at least 6 innings. Yost seems to do this with players a lot -- for example "Brady Clark is a CF, therefore he should be stealing bases." I wrote an article last off-season looking at what happened to starters in their pitches 75-100. It seemed to me last year, Yost was very stubborn about removing pitchers early from games, and let our pitchers get brutalized from pitches 75-100. I think Yost needs a quicker hook in some games, especially when guys like Bush/Suppan/Vargas are pitching. I think you can expect guys like Sheets and hopefully Yo, to give you some quality in the pitches 75-100 range, however, I think when a pitcher like Bush is not at 100% -- nothing good is going to become of it. I know the canned response to this is "you will complain if Yost burns his BP up" -- but I think there is a middle ground where you realize Bush is not a pitcher capable of giving you 100 quality pitches in all of his starts, and you can't have the same template with the backend of the rotation that you do with the front.
  19. Fatter than Joey
    Batting the pitcher 8th for example. I think we can debate the merit of what he does and whether we like it or not separatly from whether we like him overall as a manager. Well put. This was exactly the point I was trying to make, backupC just chose to make it better than I did. We are all armchair managers, and I think the decision to pitch Riske 2 innings in a non-save game was an interesting strategy point of discussion that could be debated without bringing Yost into the thread. I think Yost could be outmanaged by most inanimate objects with movable parts, but I certainly want to talk about general managerial strategy without getting into Yost's contract status. I guess the best way to put it would be that guys like Turnbow are not useless by any stretch of the imagination I agree 100% -- I think Turnbow, if applied correctly could be useful. and if we would have had a few more of at least his talent level last year we would have won the division. I disagree -- I think one Turnbow is enough -- Personally I think the key was more in our team defense rather than the BP.
  20. Fatter than Joey
    There are a lot of great ideas on this board. I know my kids are doing a lot of data collecting and then making ratios and graphs. You could have each kid assigned data to collect like "Choices to win the Sausage rate" -- "how many right handed batters", "strikes/balls" "fat guys in jerseys" "how many balls are hit out of play/lost" etc. -- and then have each kid make a (short) presentation with ratios/graphs -- My son is in 3rd grade and he had to do a thing where he counted all the houses on the block, how many where white, yellow, etc... I think Al is dead on -- you are only going to be limited by your creativity.
  21. Fatter than Joey
    Clearly Tony Gwynn Jr. does not have a desire to succeed.
  22. Fatter than Joey
    Just saying we haven't figured anything out yet is stupid. I read what we said to mean in an absolute fashion -- that is to say, we will never figure out any facet of baseball absolutely.
  23. Fatter than Joey
    I'd keep the DH in one league as it is. I'd fire Tim McCarver. I also think that the crazy differences in the parks is awesome.
  24. Fatter than Joey
    Trunbow was unscored upon in 85% of his appearances last year so it's not like he a bad option in a close game. If all our relievers hold the oppostion to zero runs 85% of the time we'll have a pretty solid core of late inning guys. This statement is really not accurate -- at least to support the conclusions drawn. I went through Turnbows game log and looked at every appearance. Click here There were 16 appearances of 77 I deemed "bad" -- That gives him about a 79% "success rate". Turnbow was scored on in 15 appearances which is actually 80.5% and not 85%. Now I don't consider every time a reliever gives up a run to be a bad outing -- however, Turnbow gave up multiple runs in 10 of the 15 times he gave up runs -- and I am talking about some pretty crooked numbers like 3,4 and 5 -- so roughly 13% of the time Turnbow gave up multiple runs. If we assume that the Brewers need a reliever for the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning -- and we have 3 relievers that are 2007 Turnbow Clones -- we will give up 2+ runs in our BP 35% of the time -- that's a lot of losses just by your BP. Also as a side note -- Turnbow has a few bad appearances in 2007 where he pitched 0IP walked 2 batters and got the hook -- I don't think it is fair to include those games as successes.
  25. Fatter than Joey
    But man, it's never too early, or going to good to hate on Yostie, is it? I think this statement is not appropriate for what the original post intended to discuss. The original poster wondered if pitching Riske 2 innings in a game that was "out of reach" by the save definition was a good idea. My first thought was "where's Turnbow?" -- I think the better idea would have been to get Turnbow in the books for 2008. As Al points out there are a couple of a approaches that a manager can take, just because you think using Riske for 2 innings yesterday was a bad idea, doesn't mean the Yost hating has begun.
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