Fatter than Joey

You were assured by me (I'm certainly not speaking for that whole thread) that because of how bad Bush's start was in 2007, bad luck was almost certainly part of the culprit and as a result, he was bound to improve Bush's last 2 months, were almost identical to his first 2 months in 2007. He had one outlier month in June, but for most of last year, pitched like he has this year. I'm trying to remember exactly what the argument about Bush was in 2007 (and I have no idea what your position was Russ), but I think in early 2007 there were expectations that he would be closer to a 3.50 ERA guy (as he was near the end of 2006) instead of a +5 ERA guy. I don't think anyone expected Bush to maintain the +6.00 ERA he had in April throughout 2007, but I didn't expect him to get down around 4.00 either, and he didn't. I don't think Gagne will go the way of Turnbow, and I expect his BB rate will improve -- but again, I am not very interested in arguing Gagne's future performance, rather just saying, he hasn't pitched well to this point, and his results are indicative to his performances.

Sure, and in this case, at least a goodly portion of that gap can be made up by taking into account a horrible defense that could probably make vintage Dennis Eckersley look like the closing version of Fausto Carmona The defense has nothing to do with the BB's and HR's he has given up. The defense contributes to the BS's and the ERA perhaps, but I think Gagne has done enough hole digging of his own, to warrant criticism. I certainly agree the defense is not helping out any Brewer pitcher, and probably is the cause of global warming.

It has to be great being a GM or owner of a small market team. Fans demand that their team signs known, free agents, even if that means they have to overpay to get them. "Not my money!" they love to say. But of course, they then spend the rest of the time judging the player based off that inflated salary. Gagne is being paid like an elite closer. Gagne is not an elite closer. Didn't we already know that? What is your point? -- Clearly Gagne is not an elite closer -- however, I think there is a lot of middle ground in between "elite closer" and "leads MLB in blown saves"

I posted this in another thread -- but I think this is the most bizarre. No Brewer starter (except Sheets) has more than one win, and it has been a month since a starter not named Sheets has gotten a win -- this from a team that is +.500. Torres has as many wins as Parra+Villy+Suppan+Yo+Bus-! Yikes!

If Weeks makes the throw to first on the double-play ball in the Cardinal game, and the first-base umpire correctly calls Blom out Sunday, we're not having this discussion right now. And neither of those things are Gagne's fault. Certainly the D hasn't helped Gagne either, but I'd still be whining about his BBs and HRs http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Several times Kendall was set up at mid thigh and the pitch ended up at the letters. I am not saying it is right or fair, but when you miss your spots by that much I don't think you can count on getting the borderline pitches. Good point Logan, some of the people I have watched the Brewers with this year have been exactly this comment.

I don't think I'm lecturing... I don't know what else to call 8 IP other than a small sample. I felt like you were talking about making projections from a 14 IP -- which I agree you can't do from a 14 inning sample. However, you certainly can look at his performance up to this point and discern whether it has been good or bad. The only two things I have focused on, are BBs and HRs -- which are not as luck dependent as BAA or ERA. Ultimately, when discussing relievers 50 IP is going to be a large sample, it is an inherent problem. To look at Gagne's walk rate and HR rate after 14 1/3 innings and expect them to hold steady would be a really bad bet. Both rates are literally off the charts: Russ -- I don't if this is addressed to me, or if you are just adding to the discussion -- however, I have never discussed future performances.... TLB, made a statement to the effect that "Gagne's performance does not match his results", speaking to the here and now -- I disagreed with that -- I think any reliever that puts up 10 BBs+4HR in 14 IP, is bound to be "off the charts", and subsequently is going to blow a lot of saves. The best way I can summarize Gagne so far, is that he deserves any and all heat he is getting, he cannot blame the defense or "luck" -- he has walked way too many batters and given up too many HRs. Unless you think Gagne has turned ino the worst pitcher ever to pitch in the majors, it's clear that Gagne's performance so far does not match his true talents. I would certainly agree that both his performance and results are below expectations - and there is no reason for him to be pitching this poorly. I don't see anything obvious indicating that his actual pitching has been as bad as the results, however. I disagree -- he has had a lot of problems locating his changeups, batters have been laying off the change, and sitting on his fastball. Even if we just assume he's a league average reliever (around 4.0 ERA), the results are going to improve tremendously. I got into a similar type of argument about Dave Bush last year -- I felt like Bush was getting his pitches over the plate a lot more than he should have, and was getting hit really hard as a result. I felt that his bad results were primarily the result of bad pitching and not bad luck, and then later in the year Bush started nibbling more and the BBs went up, and he hasn't pitched well since. I was assured last year that Bush's ERA would be well under 5.00 last year, and that never happened. If Gagne was giving up a ton of singles, I could really get behind the idea that Gagne would start regressing towards the mean, however I think reducing the BB rate and HR rate is a much taller order. I don't think Gagne will continue to pitch "off-the charts" bad, but he is going to have to make more than an incremental improvement, and I am not a big fan of expecting more than incremental improvements. As a side note -- I think everything I have said about Gagne goes for Mota and McClung as well -- both of those guys have walked too many batters as well, and Mota has probably gotten very lucky. I think Riske, has the best chance of "regressing to the mean" -- and I think Stetter and Torres have been the best pitchers in the BP so far this year, and Torres so far has exceeded my expectations, and DM looks pretty good on the Torres deal. Shouse should only be used against LHers, so any bad results he gets against RHers is on Yost.

FTJ, where did you find the lines on the strike zone? Remember, the top and bottom of the zone is actually set per batter, so you'd have to dig into the actually pitch f/x data to be fair up and down. Yeah, I just assumed that the strike zone remained consistent. At most, only 6% of his balls are getting called wrong, and 20% of his called strikes are actually balls -- I realize this isn't CSI accurate, but at a quick glance, I'd conclude that there is not a lot of merit to the "Gagne squeeze conspiracy" I agree though, if the ball is one the line at all, it's a strike. I am saying if it's on the line it could go either way, and it's tough to build a case that a pitcher is getting squeezed if the pitcher is putting the ball on the border.

So what that pitch f/x data shows is that about 23 strikes were called balls while he as on the mound so far. I disagree -- I don't think you can count the pitches that touch the lines in an argument to support "getting pinched" You also need to look at how many called strikes were actually balls. I only counted pitches that were entirely off the line -- 6% of his balls should have been strikes -- 20% of his balls should have strikes -- I don't see how anyone could reasonably conclude he is being pinched -- if you look at both the called strikes and the balls.

Unfortunately, the numbers indicate that he is due to come back to earth pretty soon. Sorry to rain on the parade. A WHIP of 1.533 and 10 walks are not good indicators, but I've still been pleasantly surprised. Yeah -- he has pitched out of some jams -- but he is walking way too many batters. I think the Brewers will eventually wish they just released estrada.

I looked at that pitch data -- and according to the data 6% of the balls were actually strikes 20% of his called strikes were balls. If anything Gagne has been lucky.

If Gagne were just wild out on the mound with his stuff, I would most certainly agree with you. But he's had some really bad luck with umpiring so far, both behind the plate & in the field. He has not had good command this year -- since we are talking about BBs and HRs, bad luck in the field is entirely irrelevant. Claiming he has had bad luck with umpiring is a poor argument, and unless you have some sort of non-empirical evidence I would be inclined to entirely dismiss your claim that he has been unlucky with umps. I just think it's very common for people to observe the most recent results, and project a sort of long-term meaning to them. Huh?! -- Who is projecting anything? I took issue with your statements that "Gagne has pitched well" and "Gagne's results do not match his performance" -- I have never tried to make any sort of long term projections other than if he keeps giving up 10 BBs+4HRs every 14IP he will continue rack up the ERA and BS's. Gagne has not pitched well so far this year, and if he doesn't pitch better (less walks and HRs), he will be getting a lot of heat. You can't take some sort of statistical high-ground and lecture about small samples -- yet use arguments like "bad umping" as it has some merit.

Prince Fielder It's not what you eat, just eat less of it. Eric Gagne - THROW STRIKES, QUIT WALKING PEOPLE. Agreed. Ned Yost Resign in disgrace. Doug Melvin Learn how to evaluate defense and pitching better Trenni Please call Don1481 so he shuts up in chat about you http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Again, you're using results to analyze, & I'm saying the results don't match his performances & stuff to this point. This is true -- however, I fail to see where your conclusions have any merit at all. We aren't talking about seeing eye grounders here, I am primarily talking about BBs and HRs. If you give you 10 BBs and 4 HRs in 14 IP -- you will have a big ERA and lots of BS's -- I would say his results exactly match his performances. If you genuinely expect Gagne to BB more than double the guys he did from last season, I can see why you're so pessimistic. I just don't think that's a very likely thing to expect. He's already given up more HRs in 2008 than he did in 2007. He walked 21 batters last year, he's already walked 10 -- I think 40 BBs if he keeps pitching the way he is, is a very realistic proposition. They tend not to be, however, in small samples such as this one, you have to be willing to examine. Small sample arguments only hold water in stats that are rates or averages. I certainly don't remember that ball getting to the 4th row It did -- watch the replay on MLB.com I guess if you consider stating the obvious (the Bako HR was a HR only bc it was hit in GABP) making excuses, then yes, that's what I did. It is not obvious, it is inaccurate. That HR Bako hit would have been a HR in a lot of parks, and there isn't a RFer that would have caught that ball -- at a minimum that would have been a 2b.

And this isn't one of those cases. You're talking how many IP this season so far 16 games -- 25% of his likely season appearances. BBs/HRs are really not luck dependent. Gagne has not pitched well. Strawman. 75% of MLB parks (possibly more) that was a fb out. You were making excuses for Gagne, HRs are HRs regardless of where they are hit. Bako was only able to yank it about 325-330 feet. That doesn't even make the warning track in most parks. This isnt accurate. GABP is 325 down the line. Bako hit that ball into the 4th row, about halfway between the 370 and 325 markers. Bako probably hit that ball closer to 350 than to 325. The ball was hit pretty hard, and over Hart's head pretty quickly. Regadless of park dimensions, there is no way that ball is caught. Furthermore, Gagne gave up a HR before the HR to Bako, and a BB after it, so I don't think Gagne deserves any benefit of the doubt. Also, most pitchers are able just to retire Balo without him hitting the ball to the warning track. Perhaps... I just don't agree that he's "miss[ing] his spots" with the regularity that you see. 10 BBs and 4 HRs in 14 innings -- thats a lot of missing spots.

As was mentioned before the stiuation we are talking about didn't necessarily call for power I was referring to Gwynn hitting at an acceptable level at the age of 30.

Cards are 6-5 on the road, I suspect they will be OK.

I'd expect Gwynn at 30 to be able to handle AAA pitching pretty well also. I don't see where he is going to develop any power.

But that's what I'm talking about -- you can't always use results to accurately depict a player. I agree -- key word being "always" -- which means you can certainly in some cases. Gagne has been squeezed big time in at least two of his appearances so far, and one of those HR was to Paul 'I can't believe I actually hit a HR on that crap' Bako. "Squeezed" is a very subjective argument, and this really smacks of excuse making. There were a couple of questionable calls, but the bottom line was Gagne had to throw WAY too many pitches yesterday, he was very erratic, if he had made better pitches initially he wouldn't have left it up to the ump to make good calls. I watched the game, saw the pitches, they weren't that good. As far as Bako goes, throwing a LH'd, right-armed dude like him a pitch low and inside, in the zone, was asking it to be yanked out of the park. That Bako HR was an out in well over 75% of MLB parks. So far, Gagne's results have not matched his stuff. You can't pitch in Petco. every day. I think as long as he can continue to consistently have his best stuff, that the results will regress back up towards the mean. I had a similar sort of argument about Dave Bush last year -- If Gagne continues to miss his spots he will have an ERA over 6 for the season.

April 5th was the last day a Brewer starter not named "Ben Sheets" won a game. Brewer starters have 7 wins (Sheets with 4) -- Arizona in contrast has 18 wins from their starters (Cubs 12, Cards 16 FYI)

If he were not pitching well, I certainly wouldn't have any reason to defend him or expect him to get better. He really isn't pitching "well" though -- at least in a relative sense to pitchers at his level. He has walked 10 dudes in 14 IP, and already given up 4 HRs, which is more than he gave up in 2007. I certainly understand there have been some bad calls and bad luck, but I am not holding my breath that we are going to see sustained periods of "well". The big difference I have noticed between this year and last year, is that when he gets behind 1-0 -- he is giving up a lot of hits and walks.

They'd probably have to be 10+ games below .500. I agree -- In 2006 we really didn't have much of a shot given our injuries, yet we went out and got Cordero which was a huge need for us at the time. The only difference in this year, is that the Cubs could make us sellers earlier than we care to be if they keep scoring runs like they are -- in 2006, 2007 the Central was very wide open.

I see the Yost - Simmons relationship similar to the Brenley - Yount relationship was in Arizona. When they fired Brenley, Yount resigned. I think if Ned is fired Ted will resign also. Yeah -- I tend to agree with this. I think Simmons has enough pull that had DM wanted Simmons to be the manager Yost would have been fired. I think Simmons primary function is to give Ned ideas, and probably is a presence in the dugout that kids like Braun & Fielder need -- i.e. a borderline HOFer that played at a high level, rather than guys like Yost/Sveum. I would not be surprised at all if Simmons bails out as well, if Yost gets canned.

This is less a vent and more a lament. It genuinely saddens me to see how many people here apparently don't really enjoy watching baseball very much. The one thing I have learned on BF.net is that we are all hard-wired differently. Some of are pessimistic, some eternally optimistic -- some are emotional, some are very passive. Some appreciate small-ball, some love Weaver-ball, and the list goes on. I think everyone here LOVES baseball and the Brewers, it's been a long week, losing 3 to Houston, having the Cubs drop 19 on us, Yo done for the season, leaving us .5 games out of 4th place. There has been a lot of frustration, and it probably has gotten the best of many if not all of us. Personally I'd rather see frustration than apathy. the umps and their obvious conspiracy against our poor team! I do agree that any conspiracy talk, is probably over the top, but no one wants to watch a poorly officiated game in any sport. Poor officiating takes the essence out of competition. As far as Gagne goes, Houston seemed to have an organized approach to deal with his pitching -- basically lay off his change-ups and look for the fastball. In all fairness Gagne has been very erratic this season (for a pitcher of his quality), and if he can't locate his changeup better -- he is not going to get a lot of calls. The umps helped the Astros out with a couple of calls, but I thought that they had a very good approach to Gagne. I am quite sure more teams are going to make Gagne throw his change-up for strikes now.

How does this team fail to score after the 4th inning -- They almost got a 9IP shut out against Houston's BP

I think a lot of Brewer pitchers can be erratic -- and when that happens its hard to expect to get calls. Gagne was squeezed today though.