rluzinski

Never heard of that metric, and that's probably why. He gets to a few balls most LF's do not, but he's ok thus far. Anything below -10 runs makes me doubt the stat. You made a similar comment in the thread about Fangraph's "value" metric. Seven years ago, on this message board, people were saying the same thing to you when you were pimping the powers of OPS. You often seem to be on the other side of the fence now. I'm not suggesting you shouldn't be skeptical but you aren't even trying to keep up with sabermetrics anymore. John Dewan started STATS, inc and invented zone rating. His defensive metric is published in the Fielding Bible and is very similar to MGL's UZR metric. UZR's scale is in runs, is in "plays". Roughly, just multiply the value by .8 to convert to runs. So -31 plays is about -25 runs. Personally, I'd probably just stick with UZR, though, since it's methodology is almost 100% public. That said, I don't think Braun is a true -25 runs LFer but it's certainly possible that he played like one for a year. It's analogous to a .230 hitter batting .180 for half a season. While I think Braun is firmly below average defensively, I don't think he's close to being the worst defender in the league.

That is fine to say, but I'd say the Brewers have a much higher chance to make the playoffs again the next few years with Prince than without. Also, I'd like to know who these young above average starting pitchers are that you keep talking about. I said it because it was suggested that we should sign Prince to show them darn big market teams. That's taking your eye off the big picture, to be certain. Furthermore, and I've already mentioned this as well but, you have no idea if the Brewer's odds of making the playoffs will be better with or without Prince in the years to come. We could speculate that no team can put a package together equal to Prince's surplus value but I'm not sure that's true. And maybe Melvin has a better shot if he concentrates talent for 2011 and 2012. Who knows? But things are a lot more complicated than the messageboard mantra of "resign the good players and get rid of the bad ones". And finally, who said anything about trading Prince for two above average starting pitchers? I made that comment to put some perspective on what Prince's value was to the team last year. I'm trying to combat the "Prince is irreplacable" hyperbole. He's a great player no doubt but a team with so many holes doesn't need to concentrate so much talent at one position if other opportunities present themselves. This stuff is complicated and they are significant uncertainties. Anyone who things they know what the Brewers should do is wrong.

You know how you give the middle finger? You beat them in the playoffs. That's the goal. And by definition, Prince is worth what he's worth. Prince is an elite player, no doubt. But the Brewers aren't exactly hurting for positions they can improve. They don't need a 5 wins above average player to make the playoffs. Two above average starting pitchers would have equaled Prince last year. Everyone loves to have supertars but I just want a playoff team. That could be with or without Prince, depending on how it all works. Nobody here knows the correct answer. We don't know what Prince wants or what he could fetch in a trade.

I pointed that out in my original post. If the Brewers are going for it in the next two years, even if they can get equal value long term, they should just keep Prince. Most trades are fairly equal at the time they are made. One team is often just trying to concentrate their value for the upcoming season, while another team might be deferring it or spreading it out.

If they got him 15, he get's the Cy Young. The point is that whether or not Wainwright got the Cy Young was decided on something that had nothing to do with him. That's ironic.

You seem to be contradicting yourself. On one hand, you say teams won't be willing to give up a couple of decent, pre arby guys. On the other, you say the Brewers should resign Prince because the prearby guys might not be worth it. I agree that projecting Prince's performance is a heck of a lot easier than a 24 year old that has shown promise in 600 MLB AB but it also means the prearby guys could also better than projected. It just depends on when you need the wins. And as I tried to point out, Prince has a lot of surplus value but it isn't some crazy amount. He's getting paid $10 mil this year. If he has another monster year, he could very well but $20 mil in his final year of arbitration. Either way, I'm thinking it's around $15 mil in surplus value. To get that from 2 guys who are maybe 4 years from free agency isn't hard at all. They barely have to be average. The fans will get pissed, sure, but they will if can't resign him anyway. And I still find it unlikely that the Brewers can offer fair market value for Prince. So why not lock up a guy that's a sure thing. If the Brewers have to pay Prince $20 mil for the next 7 years, there is no sure thing that he'll be worth it in 2016. Huge amount of risk in long term deals. Compare that to the risk of a player developing like he's projected to and it's a horse a piece. That's why both teams traded, they felt the risks and rewards were roughly equal.

How could you not get fair value trading Prince? He's a great hitter who plays average-at-best defense at the easiest position. He'll get paid something like $25 mil over the next 2 years, when he's worth something like $40. That's maybe a $15 mil surplus. A couple average pre-arby guys are worth that. Now, if you are making a serious push in 2010 or 11, no way you want to do that. If Price will give a home town discount great. Otherwise you are just paying the free agent rate for wins. Big deal.

Lincecum had the lowest ERA and FIP among the big 3. The guy averaged over 10Ks per 9! All 3 had great years but I think they got the right guy. Had Wainwright gotten more run support during his last start, they would not have. Ender, what park facors are you looking at? And how did you determine that he faced weak offenses on average? BP have that? LA, COL, SD and ARI collectively averaged 4.5 runs/game, so nothing jumps out at me in that respect. I'd have to look on a start by start basis to get a good number for Linc, though.

While I'm sure Mark A. is making money, the kind of analysis being used here to prove he's raking in the cash is way too simplistic. Much of the necessary information to estimate such a thing simply isn't available. Forbe's probably does the best analysis and even they must have to do a lot of guestimations. In the end, the Brewers' ownership group is trying to maximize short and long term profits. If they can do that by spending $85 mil a year and pocketing the rest, they will. Do people expect anything else?

Of course it matters what his value is to other teams. If you have something that is worth $100 to you and $300 to someone else, you'd be a fool not to aggressively pursue a trade. Even if you can only get $200 in return, you are ahead. So your mistake is assuming that no trade is made. If a team has excess talent at a position, they need to at least try to trade away that surplus and receive fair market compensation. A GM's job is take all the value of his players in the majors and minors and turn it into the most wins at the major league level. Sometimes that demands a trade. In reality though, you don't generally lose much moving a player down the defensive spectrum. A good defensive SS will often be a great 2B, which can somehwhat balance things out (Tango claims you lose nothing on average). But like I said, it ultimately depends on the skillset of the specific player. Ask the scouts.

If Gamel can play league average defense at 3B or LF, he needs to play at 3B for some team in order for the Brewers to maximize his value. Typically those kind of shifts don't net much though, since the player will usually be better at the easier position. It depends on the player's skillset, I guess. Either way, it's important for a team to try and place their players where their skillset can be best utilized.

26 year old who projects as a 3.0ERA/200IP pitcher for years to come. He's under contract for 3 years/$34 mil. He's easily worth over twice that. That's not exactly similar to trading for a guy who was under contract for half a season. I can't imagine what a trade package would like like for him. It's not Parra/Hart/McGehee/Salome.

The secrets out. He won't come cheap. I'm not sure it was ever a secret. I think some fans are just underestimating the intelligence of an average MLB GM. They don't just look at a pitcher's ERA from the previous year to determine value. Nolasco had a great 2008 by any measure and great peripherals in 2009. He's also dirt cheap. He has a TON of value in a trade.

The Brewers probably don't have money to aquire 2 good starting pitchers. They can get 2 slightly below average ones or 1 good one. As I already showed, if they can aquire a 4.0 ERA starting pitcher and have no significant inuries, they could have a league average rotation. Assuming league average pitching/ defense (about 725 runs given up) and the same offensive output as last yeat (785 runs), we can throw that into the basic form of the pythagorean equation: 162 x [785^2 / (785^2 + 725^2] = 87 wins You can have a very good offense and average defense/pitching and still not project to 90 wins.

Zito also tweaked his mechanics this season, so it wasn't just some fluky improvement. Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Every spring training, we hear reports about almost every previously struggling player making adjustments. According to fangraphs, Zito added 1.6 MPH to his fastball (now averaging 86.5 MPH!). He also threw 9% more sliders according to the data (I'm still very skeptical of the accuracy of their pitch type ID's). Zito's FIP and ERA the last 3 years: 2007: 4.89 / 4.53 2008: 4.72 / 5.15 2009: 4.31 / 4.03 What's a reasonable projection for 2010, 4.40 ERA? That's about league average (2 WAR, according to tango) and has a open market value of around $10/year. But this is essentially a 4 year commitment for a 31 year old pitcher who already throws only 86 MPH! It's not hard to envision Zito throwing 84 MPH at the start of 2013. As such, I'd feel inclinded to tag Zito with a pretty steep production decline. If we use tango's methodology, he assumes 1/2 win/year decline for any player on the decline side of their career. Zito's future value might be something like this: 2010: 2 WAR x $5 mil/WAR = $10 mil 2011: 1.5 WAR x $5.5 mil/WAR = $8.25 mil (teams have historically payed 10% more every year for a win... no idea if that will keep up) 2012: 1 WAR x $6 mil/WAR = $6 mil 2013: .5 WAR x $6.7 mil/WAR = $3.3 mil 4/$38 mil. The Giants would have to eat enough to get to around that number, plus whatever the value of any throw in players that they might receive. I can't imagine they would be willing to do that and I'm not sure I would want that anyway. A .5 WAR starting pitcher has around a 5.0 ERA. The Brewers already hnave enough of those kind of pitchers. Incidently, had Melvin used a .5 WAR/year decline in his calculations when considering signing Suppan, he wouldn't be in the mess he is right now with him.

"I realize you are doing a quick estimate but I think you are underestimating what impact the defense will play. According to the fielding bible rankings Gomez is rated he second best center fielder in baseball. Cameron for comparison is ranked 7th. Hardy was not rated in the top ten at short so I think Escobar will be an improvement there as well." Escobar and Gomez are no doubt great defenders but I'm not sure it's a huge upgrade over what we had. Hardy has ranked as a solid defender both in terms of UZR and Tango's fan scouting report for years. Cam as well. Escobar still has to prove he's not just equal to Hardy but better. I have no doubt that Gomez is a defensive upgrade over Cam, but that's going from very good to great. Defense at 3B, 2B and 1B are still probably going to be below average on balance. Weeks and Fielder have made strides but I think they are both still below average. 3B is a huge question mark (hopefully Mcgehee's bad D was injury related and/or Gamel can figure things out there). Corner OFers might be average overall? I reserve the right to be wrong on this but a back of the envolope estimate suggests that defense won't be a liability or a strength. Average to a bit above average, perhaps?

It's reasonable to suggest that no NL Central team will be projected to win 90 games in 2010. I think the odds are that one still will, however. Let's look at this scenario: Team: Expected Wins Cards: 87 Cubs: 87 Brewers: 85 Reds: 82 Astros: 78 Pirates: 67 The division winners averages 92 games. Only 9% of the time is the division won by a team with 86 or less wins. The Brewers win the division 21% of the time. If the Cards and Cubs really aren't going to be true 90 win team in 2010, maybe it is worth it for Melvin to try and make an 85 win team and hope for the best. What if the best Melvin can do is make a true 83 win team and the Cubs project to win 90? Team: Expected Wins Cubs: 90 Cards: 87 Brewers: 83 Reds: 82 Astros: 78 Pirates: 67 Brewers win the division 11% of the time. I don't know what Melvin should do but I hope he's doing this kind of analysis to help him decide. If his projections tell him that he'll have a 15% chance to make the playoffs even if he does sign a solid starting pitcher to a 3/$45 mil deal, maybe he should just leave his wallet in his pants.

I didn't say that the Brewer COULDN'T make the playoffs; just that they don't look like one to me. In other words, I don't consider them to be a 90 win team. Of course, many teams make the playoffs that didn't look like one before the season starts. But when you are making long term personel decisions, all you can do is make a best guess. The offense looks almost the same for next year. Throwing CHONE's projections together, I am (VERY ROUGHLY) getting something like a .264/.333/.426/.759 team line for 2010. Compared to 2009, that's 8 points less OBP and the same SLG. NL average last year was .259/.331/.409/.739, so the Brewer offense still look to be above average. The pitching staff has to get better by default but it's going to be tough for it to be even average. Let's assume Melvin signs a 4.0 ERA starting pitcher with his FA money. This might be our starting rotation, with Bill James' ERA projections (he always seems too optimistic), and more realistic expections (at least, according to me): Gallardo: 3.53 / 3.75 ERA FA Pitcher: 4.00 / 4.00 ERA Bush: 4.29 / 4.5 ERA Parra: 4.59 / 4.59 ERA (I have no idea what to expect) Suppan 4.8 / 5.25 ERA Using a simple average, James says 4.24 ERA, I say more like 4.4 ERA. With no significant injuries (big "if", obviously) and a good FA pickup (another big if), our starting pitching staff can be league average. Assume average bullpen.... average D... 85-86 wins? A really quick estimate suggests that 90 wins is going to take some overachieving and/or luck, IMO. Maybe the Cardinals and Cubs bothfall flat on their face and each win 84 games. I wouldn't count on it, though. What does that mean Melvin should do next year and beyond? I have no idea, really. Investing $15 mil on a starting pitcher this year will add maybe 3 wins but it still doesn't result in a playoff caliber team. Melvin could save that money and try to sign Prince long term to some mega deal but what's the point? He'll still probably be paying FA price for wins. The fans will like the signing, of course (unless Prince has another 2008 season, then he'll again be fat and need to be traded). I just don't think a $90 mil payroll team can't consistently make the playoffs by paying fair market price for wins. Signing Prince to a 6/$120 mil deal probably decreases their chances of making the playoffs in the long term. Unless Prince is giving a significant home town discount, you are better off trading him or taking the comp picks.

I don't understand why so many people are obsessed about extending Prince. The Brewers do not look like a playoff team over the next two years, with Prince getting paid well below fair market value. With a $90 mil payroll. You have to build a playoff team with as few post arby players as possible. Paying Prince $18ish mil a year is probably not part of the solution. And don't the Brewers only have something like $15 mil to play with anyway, this year?

Yes if we pretend that Looper giving up so many home runs was being "unlucky" instead of him losing velocity and control then he's only far below average instead of the worst starting pitcher in the major leagues not named Suppan. He hasn't lost velocity, according to data on fangraphs. His walk rate jumped up last year, though. I wouldn't call his HR rate strictly unlucky but I don't think it represents his true abilities either. As usual, it's probably somewhere in between. And there's plenty of starting pitchers who were worse than Looper last year. They just aren't usually given the chance to pitch a bunch of innings. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Assuming that Melvin has $15 mil, that's about 3 wins in free agency. So, one very good starting pitcher or two almost-average starting pitchers. That's it.

Looper had a terrible year but I find it hard to believe that he's one of the worst pitchers in the league. Seems like people are once again assuming last year's numbers = a perfect projection for future performance. What do people expect from Looper next year? He's a tough guy to project. 4.75 ERA? That's worth about $5 mil, so I guess I didn't care if the Brewers took the option or not. Of course, it would have only been a 1 year commitment, which would have been nice.

I think this is why we have a trade preposal forum.

Either I'm staring at bad info or another curious trade was proposed. I see Vazquez under contract for only 1 more year, at $11.5 mil. No doubt that he's worth at least $5 mil more than that but give up 6 years of Gamel plus Hart?

Hamels is something like a 3.5 ERA 200 IP pitcher. I have that worth something like $19 mil/year. He's getting paid peanuts the next 2 years: 10: $6.65 mil 11: $9.5 mil Hamels has around $22 mil of surplus value! That's crazy. Why would the Phillies want to trade that away? they want to win now. I think Melvin would get hung up on if he offered the McGehee/Parra package.