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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Are people in the thread going out and saying that Kapler should now be the main starter and Cameron a once a week fill in reserve? The author of this thread said, "I would ride Kapler in Colorado and see what happens." Obviously, if you want to propose a scenario that gives Kapler less than a full time role, I will object less strongly but I would still prefer that he remain a strict backup. There is no statistical evidence that I'm aware of that makes Kapler the presumed better player going forward. If someone wants to support their "Kapler needs more playing time" opinion with personal observation, I won't call them wrong. I just won't be personally swayed.
  2. rluzinski
    You could tie me to a chair and pluck my eyebrows out, still wouldn't root for the Cubs. If the Brewer' playoff chances came down to one game that you needed the Cubs to win , you'd be fist-pumping if Aramis Ramirez hit a walk off blast. You'd revel in his bush league HR pose. Admit it! Say it louder! http://philzine.files.wordpress.com/2008/02/there-will-be-blood-baptism-by-faith.jpg
  3. rluzinski
    Why do people keep trying to compare the odds of: Any team from any year in any division under any circumstances coming back from a large deficit to win their division To: The Brewers doing it this year in the NL Central That's like saying: Winning the power Ball can't be THAT hard. Afterall, I know some guy who won a $10,000 on a scratch off, back in 99'. Hell, if you just want to go all the way and say that every team in the Central still has even odds of winning the division, the Brewers have a 17% chance! As for my "rooting for the wild card" scenario, I have to admit... it's partly tongue in cheek. The Brewers have pretty close to the same odds of making the wildcard as they do to winning the division. I'm not sure how much it matters who wins those Cubs vs. wildcard games, unless it's the Dodgers sweeping the Cubs or some other result involving a Cubs collapse.
  4. rluzinski
    My calcs put this road trip at almost perfectly even, so my guess is 3-3. Why has Colorado been so bad? They were projected to win around 82 games but are currently on pace for only 59! Their run differential is terrible as well, so they've earned that horrible record. The Holliday injury won't hurt the Brewers, that's for sure. I would be more than satisified with 4-2.
  5. rluzinski
    I realize this was tongue in cheek, but I think that is evidence that the division is that damn good. It doesn't help when the Cubs have the best record in baseball, though. With their loss, they are now on pace for "only" 103 wins! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Speaking of the wildcard (huh?), here's who BP things are the frontrunners for the wildcard and each team's projected win total. I've noted major injuries, since BP doesn't adjust for them (as they could/should): Mets: 91.4 Brewers: 88.5 (lost Gallardo for year) Phillies: 88.2 Dbacks: 86.8 Braves: 84.7 (lost Smoltz for year) Dodgers: 84.0 Cardinals: 81.0 2 of the above teams will most likely win the West or East. I've trimmed off any teams that are projected to finish under .500. That's not to say that they have no chance at the wildcard but you have to draw the line somewhere. Also, I think you need to knock off a couple wins from the Brewers and Braves' projections (what Smoltz and Gallardo's injuries are going to cost their teams, very roughly). Assuming the Mets and Dbacks win their division and adjusting the projections, we end up with: Phillies: 88 Brewers: 87 Dodgers: 84 Braves: 83 Cards: 81 So, when Chicago plays the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves or Cards, root, root, roooot for the Cubbbbiessss. They've got 7 games against the Dodgers and Braves coming up, so you won't have to wait long!
  6. rluzinski
    Is it possible to believe in statistics and the psychology of a hitter at the same time or is that pretty black and white? As long as you aren't using a sample of data with a huge uncertainty to prove the effects of that psychology, sure!
  7. rluzinski
    At least there wasn't a "Cards game postponed, Brewers gain .5 games on second place" thread.
  8. rluzinski
    Cubs lose, 6 games back! Hey, the Padres have almost no chance at the wildcard http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  9. rluzinski
    Gabe should probably play a bit more until he cools off How can you mock others for not being statistically inclined and then make a comment like that?
  10. rluzinski
    Does this have to happen every year? 90 AB is a hopelessly small sample size. To turn a career backup into a starter because of it is a recipe for disaster. Thankfully, it's not going to happen. Cameron will remain a starter and not because of his salary. He'll remain a starter because of what that salary says about his future expected performance.
  11. rluzinski
    I'm liking the, "I don't care what the odds are, the Brewers will find a way", vibe. Not exactly enjoying the, "if the odds say that the Brewers are the underdogs they are wrong!" sub-tone, however. One out of two ain't bad, I guess. Wait a second, when it get's down to 4 games, you're going to start rooting for a Brewers Division title, but 'till that time you're pulling for the cubs to beat anyone that is ahead of the Crew in the Wild Card standings. I will root for whatever outcome I think gives the Brewers the best chance of making the playoffs. Right now, I think it's the outcome that gives them the clearest path to the wildcard. As others have pointed out, though, there are 100 games left. Circumstances can change.
  12. rluzinski
    TSack27, great post. Good analogy. If one year of coaching turns a career .750 OPS hitter into a .900+ one, the entire team should take a year off. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  13. rluzinski
    Until the Brewers can close the gap to around 4 games (and there's at least a reasonable chance of that happening), if the Cubs are playing the Cardinals or any other team ahead of the Brewers in the wild card race, I'll be rooting for Soriano and Zambrano to shut em' down!!! Does that get me excommunicated? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Will I get a big red "C" painted on my chest and be forced to wear a foam Cubs finger?
  14. rluzinski
    Brewers finally have a positive run differential! Stat nerds rejoice! To think that wasn't a great signing when you have Counsell that can barely hit RHP making 3 Million a year is a little crazy. Counsell has nothing to do with this. You are calling it a great signing because of what he's done so far. Using that perspective, I would be a fool to disagre.e
  15. rluzinski
    With a 6-1 lead, a day off and Sheets going on Friday against a bad team, things are sure looking good in the short term. Sorry Russ, I'm not sure where you are coming from on that one. You are just looking at his 90 AB from this year. I'm looking at his entire career. It's not surprising that we could come to completely opposite conclusions. As always, I hope Kapler continues to buck the odds.
  16. rluzinski
    Parra in some big trouble here. So many pitches, so many balls. It was cheap. It was basically just a contract to try out. Brought a team guy that didn't expect to play everyday, just compete. Had he not performed, he would have been the first to go. Any league min. backup can't hurt you TOO much but you still have to be selective to whom you give those ABs to. You can't pretend there isn't any cost to "just seeing what he can do." There's no question the move has paid off so far. I just hope no one expects it to continue.
  17. rluzinski
    It's not just being 7 games back in June. It's being 7 games back in June against a team that was expected to be better than the Brewers before the season started and hasn't done anything to disprove that notion yet.... PLUS being 3.5 games back against two teams that the Brewers are probably better than but have gotten off to better stats, nonetheless. Let's look at a wildly optimistic situation. We'll assume that the Cubs and Brewers are equal in collective talent (even though I see no way to justify that) and pretend that the Cards and Astros already have a 0% chance of winning. I'll even throw in that the Cubs road-heavy finish will cost them 2 extra wins (about 3 times larger than I think it should be). In that scenario, all the Brewers have to do is play 6 games better than the Cubs over the final 103 games and they will win the Central outright (and I'll adjust for the 10 head-to-head games). So, I've been about as generous as I possibly could be. Simulate the season 50,000 times to account for sample uncertainty (random variance, luck, whatever you want to call it) and what do I get? 23%. Since I've been so generous to the Brewers, the true odds have to be well below that. Is that worth rooting for? Up to you. I just think that fans should have some realistic expectations.
  18. rluzinski
    How the heck is Kapler doubled off there? On a deep fly that isn't caught, how would he not have scored from 2B? I don't get it. I can't believe there were people that were upset over signing kapler this offseason. What a pickup by melvin! What looked good about the signing at the time (no speedo jokes, please)?
  19. rluzinski
    O crap, Kapler is going to be playing every day now.
  20. rluzinski
    It's just a pet peave of mine, but I wish people would say, why "HAS Suppan been dominant at Miller Park?", instead of saying IS. IS implies that we already know that Suppan should be expected to be better at Miller Park, going forward. At this point, all we know is that he has been better over a certain number of innings. You have to be careful with selecting oddities after the fact and then asking whether it's a stiatistally significant difference. While it's true that Miller Park seems to inflate HR rates by between 6 and 8%, I don't think that explains much of the difference (I haven't looked at the numbers too closely, though). My guess is that the majority of the difference is just sample error. I know, I'm a stick in the mud.
  21. rluzinski
    There is a chance that the Brewers finish on a 104-0 run (the 163rd game comes from a 1 game playoff with the Cubs, after they finish 94-7). Some seem to think (and I could be wrong about this) that being able to pluck out examples of unlikely events occuring suggests that they weren't actually as unlikely as people thought. With 100+ years, dozens of teams and many different races, the unlikely is bound to occur from time to time. That fact does not make it any more likely that the Brewers can catch the Cubs, however. I just wanted to know what kind of chance gets people excited. For some, the answer is "any" and there's nothing wrong with that. I envy you.
  22. rluzinski
    Batter in the 9th spot (which includes pinch hitters and LaRussa): Brewers: .472 NL: .507 That's from ESPN. Any site offers pitching splits by position faced?
  23. rluzinski
    Wouldn't the same arguments be true for walks? Other runners don't advance, and they are not as valuable as a single. This is why I feel some people overvalue players like Gabe Gross. His OBP is okay because of his BB numbers, but his average still stinks. To echo sbrylski, no one is suggesting that OBP captures all the value of a player. Fortunately, SLG captures the other side of the coin, as it's measuring the total bases a player gets via a hit (not walk). That's why, for all it's crudeness, OPS (OBP + SLG) does a reasonable job of estimating a player's offensive production. For a better explanation for why OPS works, read this excellant article: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ops-for-the-masses/ The author, Dan Fox, now works for the Pirates.
  24. rluzinski
    Braun has 42 RBI. What's the next excuse...Prince can't get 'em because Braun has already batted them in? FWIW, Braun has had 14 more runners in scoring position during is PAs than Fielder has this year. Personally, I think looking at RBIs and trying to infer some kind of production/clutch skill from it is silly. Just look at their overall production (BA/OBP/SLG), as far as I am concerned.
  25. rluzinski
    I thought you didn't care what they did. Sorry. I looked.... by accident.
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