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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    2 runs in 4 IP and Sheets is pitching batting practice? It just gets better and better... I for one think Sheet's is hurt. His fastball has lacked his normal velocity all year long. Has he even hit 94 this season? As I posted earlier in this thread, his first fastballs where 95,95,97,94. The problem is the command of his curveball. I doubt that's a result of an injury.
  2. rluzinski
    I don't think Sheets has his best stuff. He is trying way to many moves to first. I think he's just learned/refined his move to first and has been trying it out a lot this year. and I doubt Pujols is going anywhere. He was moving on a foul ball, so that's certainly not true.
  3. rluzinski
    Sheets' first few fastballs: 95,95,97,94,95 Now if he can just get his curveball working...
  4. rluzinski
    For all of you who feel Ben needs to get back to striking people out to be back at his norm, just remember that back before 2004 he really wasn't a big strikout guy if I remember correctly. We should to call what he did in 2003, when he was 24 years old, "normal Sheets"? He has over 500 IP from between 04-06 where he's averaged over a K an inning. I think that's a large enough sample to consider that as his expected performance.
  5. rluzinski
    Right now, no one can argue that he isn't our #3 best starting pitcher. If you do, then I have a right to call into question your baseball knowledge. No, no , no! Don't waste this stuff in an in-game thread. Just bundle up all those bucksmanisms into a big ol' pile and start a thread! Be sure to throw something in there about not being afraid to speak the truth and allude to being a martyr. Don't worry about defining whom you are a martyr to. That's largely irrelevant.
  6. rluzinski
    When did I ever say they would go 0fer in those games. I don't think they will. Well, then if we know the Cubs will win at least one, 1 run game this season, assuming their run differential doesn't get worse, we've predicted that the Cubs will improve their winning % to some degree. Great work everyone, that's a wrap!
  7. rluzinski
    bucksman, Ahh yes, you were simply trying to stimulate intelligent discussion yet again. In fact, I think you should start a whole thread about how Suppan and Cappy are winners and Sheets is a loser. Man, we haven't really explored that topic at bf.net and I'm sure you have a well thought argument all ready to be expanded on. I look forward to your post! Come on out Brewer faithful and see which poster will eat cake, and which will eat crow. To be honest, my moneys on Ben. You won't hear anything from me, since one start doesn't mean a damn thing, either way.
  8. rluzinski
    I remmber when he was talking about his first hit 2 years ago last year on Cold Pizza (during spring training) "Well there was a strong wind coming in from right. When I hit it, I thought it was gone but the wind really knocked it down." Here you go: Sheets on Cold PIzza He starts talking about the hit around 4:05...
  9. rluzinski
    I like to see this: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/espn_brewers.jpg It's beginning to remind me of when the national media started noticing the Packers again in the early 90's. Of course, the article itself has more to do with the Yankees than anything else (NEVER would have guessed), it's better than nothing!
  10. rluzinski
    We have the third lowest sos score primarily due to us beating all those teams- and that's why.. We've been beating up on the NL Central. I can't figure out how ESPN calculates their SOS exactly but even if you take out the Brewer games, their opponents have a combined 72-75 record and a weighted (for how many times the Brewers have played them) winning % of .466. I'm not saying that predicts anything but clearly, May is going to be against stiffer competition than April was.
  11. rluzinski
    That's pretty good odds for a zillion dollars. Russ, can I get in on this action too? Provided the winner gets paid in "hyperbole bucks", sure.
  12. rluzinski
    We never win when Sheets pitches. If we need to win 1 game to get us to the post-season, I sure as heck hope it falls in the spot where Soup or Cappy pitches!!! http://www.timewarp-toys.com/troll.jpg
  13. rluzinski
    The Brewers have had a really easy schedule so far, based on SOS: [b]TEAM SOS W L[/b] Colorado Rockies 0.543 10 16 Los Angeles Dodg 0.527 15 11 San Francisco Gi 0.522 13 11 Chicago White So 0.521 12 11 San Diego Padres 0.520 13 13 New York Yankees 0.519 9 14 Texas Rangers 0.516 10 15 Kansas City Roya 0.514 8 18 Los Angeles Ange 0.511 15 11 Washington Natio 0.510 9 17 Cleveland Indian 0.509 14 8 Chicago Cubs 0.502 10 14 Toronto Blue Jay 0.500 13 12 Florida Marlins 0.500 12 13 Baltimore Oriole 0.498 12 14 Atlanta Braves 0.497 16 9 Tampa Bay Devil 0.496 11 14 Arizona Diamondb 0.494 16 11 St. Louis Cardin 0.493 10 14 Seattle Mariners 0.492 10 10 Oakland Athletic 0.489 12 13 New York Mets 0.487 15 9 Cincinnati Reds 0.486 12 13 Boston Red Sox 0.486 16 8 Detroit Tigers 0.486 14 11 Pittsburgh Pirat 0.485 12 12 Philadelphia Phi 0.484 11 14 Milwaukee Brewer 0.476 16 9 Houston Astros 0.471 10 14 Minnesota Twins 0.471 14 11By the time the Brewers finish up the Nats series, I believe the Brewers' SOS will be the lowest in the league.
  14. rluzinski
    I think we should get this thread up to 8 or 9 pages before the game starts. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Any word on if Weeks will play tonight? Just cover up that cracked fingernail or something? What about Hart and his wrist?
  15. rluzinski
    If the Cubs finish the season 0fer in 1 run games, I'll give you a ZILLION dollars. If you are willing to admit the near impossibility of that, you will begin to appreciate what's being talked about here. Perhaps, because of the Cubs bullpen makeup or other factors, they aren't going to win as many close games as an average team, but there's no chance that they can stay winless in 1 run games for the whole season.
  16. rluzinski
    Len Kasper explains it well: LINK You think Bill Schroeder knows the Brewers' pythagorean record? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  17. rluzinski
    The first high def. FSN game. FINALLY. Graffy has a .220 BA and SLG in 50 AB. That's very difficult to accomplish. Here's something else that's pretty crazy: [b]2007 NL Production at 3B: TEAM AB BA OBP SLG OPS[/b] Florida 104 0.356 0.414 0.663 1.077 Atlanta 100 0.310 0.415 0.640 1.055 Chicago Cubs 96 0.354 0.406 0.594 0.999 Colorado 105 0.267 0.342 0.438 0.780 Arizona 100 0.250 0.356 0.410 0.766 Houston 94 0.287 0.370 0.394 0.764 Pittsburgh 94 0.298 0.320 0.436 0.756 San Francisco 99 0.242 0.265 0.434 0.699 NY Mets 91 0.242 0.367 0.308 0.675 St. Louis 92 0.239 0.314 0.359 0.672 Philadelphia 102 0.275 0.321 0.333 0.655 Washington 110 0.236 0.288 0.327 0.615 Cincinnati 91 0.242 0.310 0.286 0.596 Milwaukee 85 0.224 0.313 0.282 0.595 LA Dodgers 83 0.181 0.294 0.241 0.535 San Diego 100 0.160 0.257 0.270 0.527The Brewers' .595 OPS is only 3rd worst? The Padres starting 3B (Kouzmanoff), has a .354 OPS in 71 AB, so I guess we should be happy with the platoon so far? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif EDIT: .260 / .334 / .401 / .735 NL average at 3B so far. The AL isn't much better.
  18. rluzinski
    OK, so I'm completely spoiled now and want in-game threads created 5 minutes after the end of the previous game.
  19. rluzinski
    Wow...when's the last time Jenkins was intentionally walked?? 8 times last year, twice now this year and 63 times in his career.
  20. rluzinski
    but the bottom line is that it's not how many games you could/would/should have won, it's how many you actually do win. And who is saying otherwise? I've made two general points in this thread: 1. Given a large enough sample, run differential can tell you a lot about how a team might be expected to perform going forward. Since rs and ra correlated with wins pretty good (despite your previous claim), why shouldn't we assume some level of predictive ability? 2. 24 games is not a large enough sample for run differential to really matter. That's it. If a team wins 120 games and the World Series, why would anyone care about run differential? p.s. -- Glad to see you back on these discussions rluz I took like a 5 hour break. That's all the will power I have apparently. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  21. rluzinski
    Just like losing one game (in a series we took 2-1) 10-1 to Houston skews our differential. Which is why run differentials after 24 games isn't particularly meaningful. 100+ games, on the other hand. All run differential tells you is how many more or less runs you or your opponents have scored. To me it's not particularly useful, bc it doesn't really predict anything. You might want to google "Pythagorean Record". You can predict a team's record over a season with only rs and ra pretty accurately.
  22. rluzinski
    I must not be a sports fan then. Because you also speak in probabilities? You lost me.
  23. rluzinski
    I use web queries to calculate expected runs scored for all NL teams. I'll eventually use them to automatically calculate my series probabilities later int he year. I have a problem with them not running correctly from time to time. You have that problem ever?
  24. rluzinski
    I assume that stands for Fielding Runs Above Average? Is that a BP stat?
  25. rluzinski
    So if Team A and Team B end up the season with the same record, does that make the team with the better run differential the better team? It might suggest it but it doesn't prove it, no. I'm not speaking in absolutes, only probabilities. Only sports fans do that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I think it was 2 years ago where the Packers had scored more points than their opponents at a point very late in the season and didn't they have a 4-12 record? There's a lot of reasons why football isn't analogous to baseball in this respect. For one thing, there's a significant correlation between points scored and points given up in football. Not so much in baseball (I'm not claiming their isn't any, however). Also, with only 16 games in a season, a lot of weird things can happen. A team can steal 3-4 games and end up with 11 wins. The bears did that a few years ago when they had all those crazy last second wins and then got blown out of the playoffs. Finally, the Packers finished 4-12 in 2005 and had a point differential of -46. If they had a positive point diff early, it probably didn't represent their true talent.
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