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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I was just thinking about this yesterday after the 10-1 loss. I think run differential is a good stat to use, but it is flawed in many ways. Absolutely. it's just one piece of evidence and shouldn't be taken as gospel. Still there's a reason why a team's record is so closely tied to their run differential. Over the course of 162 games, things usually even out. I'm not a big fan of run differential especially this early in the season. A loss is a loss no matter if you lose 10-1 or 1-0. This isn't soccer where goals scored is a tie breaker at the end of the season. It matters with respect to trying to determine the true talent of a baseball team. 99% of what we talk about here is with respect to speculating on future performance. Who do you expect to do better going forward: Team A: 15-9; run diff. of -10 Team B: 15-9; run diff of +40 If you say that it doesn't matter because they have the same record, you don't understand the question.
  2. rluzinski
    It's too early to expect a team's record or their run differential to match their true talent with any kind of accuracy. That said, if you are going to get off to a hot start, who wouldn't want the run differential to justify the gaudy record? Boston is 16-8 and has a +41 run differential. That doesn't write their ticket to the post season but it's a promising stat. At this point in the season, you are probably better off looking at preseason predictions over the current season's stats to determine "true talent". But as I said in another thread, if the Brewers have the talent of an 85 win team and have simply caught a couple lucky breaks early, it's not like they have a dept to payoff that will inevitably adjust your record back down. They get to keep the wins. That means, assuming you still think the 85 win projection is valid, the Brewers would now be expected to win 87 games. They aren't expected to win 101 games (their current pace).
  3. rluzinski
    Games sure have felt different this year. Going into a new series, I'm used to thinking, "Well, if the Brewers can get lucky and sweep this team, they'll only be 5 under!" Not as hard to find things to be optimistic about right now. Hope that keeps up.
  4. rluzinski
    Not saying I believe in such things but how do you think the death of a teamate will effect this series? I think that it can only hurt, not help.
  5. rluzinski
    Cordero and Turnbow are sure putting up some gaudy K and BB numbers.
  6. rluzinski
    Some of the same people who critique Vargas' 0 runs given up and label it as a 'bad' outing will be the same people who will defend our 'ace' Sheets when he gives up 6 runs Remember Sheets' complete game shutout on opening day? While many thought he was absolutely dominant, I and others pointed out that there was probably a little luck involved as well. Sheets put a lot of balls in play and had few strikeouts. It might be easy to ignore that and just be happy about the zero earned runs but some like to look at thinks more deeply. Is it impossible for you to appreciate that some try to stay objective in their observations no matter who the player is? I know you wouldn't bother trying but it's possible, really!
  7. rluzinski
    How can it be a bad start if he didn't give up any runs? You want to judge a pitchers performance based on only the result? That's your right. Just understand that some look a little deeper than just earned runs.
  8. rluzinski
    Why can't Vargas throw to 2B!!!?
  9. rluzinski
    I don't care if Vargas hasn't given up a run. He looks terrible right now.
  10. rluzinski
    Vargas Ks three with three pitches with the bases loaded. I'm sure Hardy was happy to see that after botching the possible inning ending double play.
  11. rluzinski
    and that historically the Brewers are exactly what the doctor ordered. Historically, the Astros have had more talent than the Brewers for quite some time. Perhaps someone should let them know that things change.
  12. rluzinski
    Someone should create an adjusted RBI. Something like (RBI / (runners per PA)). does that even work? It wouldn't be horrible to just look at the % of runners in scoring position that were plated. I'm not a big fan though, since you can have a batter that plates a bunch of guys but also kills rallies with a bunch of outs. Generally speaking, I want a batter to maximize team runs, not RBIs. Now, down by one or in a tie game...
  13. rluzinski
    Who does Lee get to drive in that's so much better than Jenkins and Mench that the comparison is so unfair? Apparently, people who are getting into scoring position for him: [b] TPA runners[/b] Lee 94 30 Mench 60 17 Jenkins 58 14 Menckins might have 24 more PAs but that's translated into only one extra runner in scoring position. That's why RBI numbers don't tell you much unless you know the how many RBI opportunites each batter had. Just looking at PAs isn't enough.
  14. rluzinski
    They've really found their groove the last few episodes. It seems like years ago that NBC was trying to sell this as Friends II.
  15. rluzinski
    Lee bats in the heart of the order. Jenkins and Mench bat much lower. Comparing RBI numbers simply isn't fair. I mean, Lee has already had 4 plate appearances with the bases loaded, compared to 0 for Menckins. And while Lee may have a ton of RBIs, with his sub .300 OBP, he's also made a lot of outs. A hitters job is to maximize runs for his team, not just hit runners in himself.
  16. rluzinski
    I've been loving these episodes lately.
  17. rluzinski
    Does Piniella always act like he's high as a kite during his post game interviews? Very odd.
  18. rluzinski
    If there is a strikeout pitcher out there, and Fielder and Hall strikeout out with men on, then it can be assumed that Estrada is more likely to put the ball in play than Jenkins. He also has a higher chance of ending the inning completely and a lower chance of plating multiple runs.
  19. rluzinski
    think for whatever reason he thinks Estrada batting 5th will come up in situations where putting the ball in play is as important as overall power. Whether there is any truth to it I don't know. I know what Yost is getting at but it just doesn't add up. Even if Estrada manages to have a .300 batting average this year, Jenkins/Mench might put up a .275 BA in his place. That's 12 more hits over 500 AB, of which, only a small fraction will occur when a hit is significantly more valuable than a walk. All at the cost of more outs and less power. It just isn't even close, IMO. Like I said, however, the "mistake" doesn't add up to much anyway, so I'm not going to lose sleep over it.
  20. rluzinski
    If we don't get rained out, I'll bet we get crushed today. I have the same feeling. Estrada back in the lineup today And back in the 5 hole because, well, Yost said so. I don't think it really matters much but it didn't make sense when Yost decided on it before the season started and it definitely doesn't make sense now. The only corner outfielder Estrada can be expected to outperform is probably Gwynn.
  21. rluzinski
    A lot of the flash games don't appear to work now. Flash was updated apparently?
  22. rluzinski
    I'd rather Sheets just pitch on normal rest. I'd also like an 8 inning start from Sheets that results in a blow out. It would be nice to rest almost the entire bullpen for 2 days. They need it. I'd also like to sweep the Cubs!
  23. rluzinski
    Why have Mench and Jenkins turned into Super Stars?
  24. rluzinski
    Is there clutch? Or is it the reverse? I think Jason Bay has it right:
  25. rluzinski
    Cubs fan creation, inspired by his team's performance last night: http://photos-969.ak.facebook.com/photos-ak-sf2p/v73/167/41/14824290/n14824290_34718969_132.jpg
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