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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    22-10 record and even the lurkers can no longer resist! This is just getting insane.
  2. rluzinski
    What are you using these numbers for? If you want to predict the final numbers you need to regress them.
  3. rluzinski
    Well, average is 770ish for a LF/RF. If you are able to play solid defense, you'll have a nice career with a 730 OPS. A number 5 outfielder, sure.
  4. rluzinski
    Fangraphs has it too. Be careful though, some include HRs and some don't.
  5. rluzinski
    If you just want to extrapolate, GP is as good as anything. Extrapolating unexpected stats is a big no-no, however. Hardy is almost certainly not going to hit 42 HRs (his current pace). What you should probably do is regress his current rate down towards something more reasonable, like 20 HRs for the season. Not sure how far to regress, though.
  6. rluzinski
    First of all he [sheets] is very inconsistent and at least 1/3 of the time is very average to even poor. You must have missed the thread where Ennder showed how wrong that notion is.
  7. rluzinski
    i'm not clever enough to come up with a good one Neither am I but it hasn't stopped me from trying. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  8. rluzinski
    I'm pretty neutral with the whole poem format but when you have 162+ IGTs a year, one different one is fine by me.
  9. rluzinski
    Don't fret about Russ He can't hurt you anymore Failed bunts FTW!
  10. rluzinski
    Braynan has done well And he will continue to Damn all you haters! AB BA OBP SLG OPS Braynan 2007 24 .292 .469 .542 1.011 [b] 1724 .233 .330 .484 .814[/b]Not bad for one mil But he should be at third base He rakes for that spot
  11. rluzinski
    BP just uses play-by-play data (as opposed to zone data), right?
  12. rluzinski
    What is with Yost's obsession with the "fake bunt-pull the bat back and slash" play? I like the idea of trying to take advantage of the corner infielders charging for the bunt but why does the runner at first have t take off as well? A pitcher is going to swing and miss often enough to make that a terrible decision. Unfortunately, since Yost had success with that play before, it's going to take at least a couple of time of it blowing in his face before he reconsiders.
  13. rluzinski
    Yost is once again embarrassing himself with all his gimmick offense silliness.
  14. rluzinski
    Count on the Brewers and the Yankees to swap winning percentages by the end of they year. The Yankees have scored 141 runs to their 126 runs allowed, putting them at a Pythagorean win/loss of 13-11. The Brewers, until their sweep of the Cardinals this week, had allowed more runs than they had scored (remember the '05 Nationals?) Brad wants to take a small sample of 27 games worth of run differential and make it even smaller (by trimming off 3 games), just so he can come to the conclusion he wants to? That's bad math on top of bad math. And if you want conclude that the Yankees' 13-11 pyth record is representative of their true true overall talent, they'll end the season 88-74, with a .543 winning%. Brad better hope it's not that simple, since the Yankees wouldn't even make the post season, much less get anywhere near the Brewer's current winning %. I think people look at their favorite team's pythag. record and think that means they'll end up at that pace by the end of the season. You don't get a do-over on games; if you are behind your expected record, you've lost them for good.
  15. rluzinski
    I looked at the Brewers raw stats (AB, hits, IP, etc...) and calculated the expected runs from them: RS: 144 (133 actual) RA: 122 (116 actual) That's a pretty nice run differential. Using expected runs to get expect wins, we get a record of 15.7 - 11.3. The extra 2.3 wins the Brewers have "stolen" could be the result of the team's use of dominating relievers in close games or it could just be dumb luck. I won't pretend to know which. If that expected record represented the teams' true talent, The Brewers would be expected to finish with 96 games (.581 win% for the rest of the way). I don't know if the Brewers are really THAT good yet but it's becoming harder and harder to for anyone to pretend this isn't an above average team. For ONCE, no matter how I slice the numbers, things look good! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  16. rluzinski
    What if the Cubs don't play any one run games from here on out? That is possible to although very improbable. Just pointing out flaws in your theory since we don't know how many one run games they will be in. I'm talking about what's likely to happen, not what's theoretically possible but has virtually no chance of actually occurring. Over 25% of all the MLB games are decided by 1 run.
  17. rluzinski
    Because brewerfan.net needs another martyr? It has nothing to do with being negative. People are negative all over the place. It's that you basically write whatever pops into your head, never bothering to worry about whether what you say is even true. But yeh, fight the fight.
  18. rluzinski
    Sheets on his injury: "Whether I am a wussy or not is yet to be decided but we decided to be careful."
  19. rluzinski
    Aahhhhhhlllllllright, just waiting on Woogie to start this cycle all over again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I have a picture of a broom all picked out...
  20. rluzinski
    Jenkins has a 1.027 OPS right now. WOW.
  21. rluzinski
    Why the heck is Yost wasting any of his decent relievers?
  22. rluzinski
    SHEETS IS GOING TO GET 2 HITS IN AN INNING!
  23. rluzinski
    Well, maybe another inning? 97 pitches with Sheets leading off? I doubt it. I'll take 2 runs in 6 IP. Batting practice indeed. EDIT: Shows you what I know. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  24. rluzinski
    Well, this will be Sheet's last inning. Then Wise, Turnbow and Coredero.
  25. rluzinski
    rluzinski - who is the girl in your avatar? My lover, Wendy.
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