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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    If you have a runner on base, what would you rather have? A guy that can't make contact, or a guy that can advance a runner? I'm not saying that guy will move him over every time, but he will move him more making contact, right? As I mentioned above, with a runner at 1st and less than 2 out, a BIP out is worse than a K on average in that situation. Teams have scored more runs in that situation after a K than a BIP out. NO DP chance. Since those results are based on the aggregate, specific player matchups and situations certainly move the relative cost of a K and BIP out around. A guy with a high contact ratio who hit's a lot of fly balls would be better than a guy who just K's, for example. Still, the numbers clearly show that "just making contact" is not as nearly valuable as many think.
  2. rluzinski
    Players with a lower contact ratio generally have a higher SLG. Not to pimp my own blog, but I just ran a small study on the subject: LINK EDIT: Had "lower SLG" before. That's incorrect.
  3. rluzinski
    Gross, including his 2 for 2 with a walk today: [b] AB HR AVG OBP SLG OPS[/b] [b]G Gross[/b] 18 2 .220 .316 .400 .716 Getting there. Couple more hits and we can talk about what a great spring training he had! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  4. rluzinski
    I can't stand strikeouts, they give you virtually nothing. The only real situation I'd "not mind" a K is an at bat with like 10 or more pitches. I don't think there's any debate which is more entertaining. K's are as bad as they get. What's being debated here is which event hinders or help's a team's ability to score runs. Many times, what's fun to watch isn't the most efficient way to score runs. All statistical evidence points to a strikeout being only marginally worse than a BIP out in an average situation. A huge percentage of AB are with no men on or 2 outs; in both situations a K = BIP out. With a runner on 1st and less than 2 out, a A BIP out is WORSE than a K. You can't move the runner over with a K but you can't hit into a DP with it either. With a runner on 2nd or 3B, a K is significantly worse for obvious reasons. This isn't just supposition. There are cold hard facts that have been studied to death. I can appreciate that common sense and tradationalists tells you a K is the worst thing in the world but it's simply not supported by any facts I have ever seen. I'm certainly willing to entertain any logical argument against strike outs, provided they don't simply don't again include a list of things that "could" happen when you put the ball in play. This isn't a contact vs. strikout argument, it's a BIP out vs. K argument.
  5. rluzinski
    I would think any good relief pitcher on a good team would work. Team wins alot of games and their staff will rack up the holds.
  6. rluzinski
    There are certainly advantages to BIP outs in certain situations, but the same can also be said about K's in certain situations. The end result appears to be that a strikout is only marginally worse in an average situation. There are probably a half dozen independant ways to illustrate this statistically, but the most adament supporters of "putting the ball in play" haven't ever seemed particularily swayed by that type of proof. As a result, I'll spare us all the same old, same old. I will say that it appears players trade the ability to make contact for power, so there are auxilliary effects to a player trying not to strike out.
  7. rluzinski
    There has been a lot of discussion about which one of these is a worse out for an offensive team to make, a strikeout or a groundout. 99% of the time I think that a groundout is a better out to make here is why. A groundOUT by definition results in an out. The "strikouts don't matter" camp has always compared a strikeout to a BIP out. You are confusing that by comparing a strikeout to a BIP who's result is still unknown. It's obviously better to have a chance of reaching vs. none, but that is not what has ever been argued. It's this huge misunderstanding that has caused countless unecessary arguments at brewerfan.net.
  8. rluzinski
    Sometimes, however, some cocky newbie will let us know that "it's a fact that Bill Hall is a better SS than JJ Hardy and K's are WAY worse than all other outs". That is when opinions become troublesome here. That sums up my feelings exactly.
  9. rluzinski
    My understanding is that Kolb can only go to the minors if he would agree to it. And he wouldn't.
  10. rluzinski
    Cirillo is batting .429 in spring training. His OPS is .996.
  11. rluzinski
    That's correct. If it's not on the flagship, it's not on XM, also if it's a split squad it's not on XM. That's all fine and dandy, but I recall listening to no less than a dozen spring training games on XM last year, and if they had been on WTMJ I would have just listened to them there. Is my recollection that off or do they simply have less spring training games on this year? I enjoyed listening to the Crew on my XM last season as I drove to Vegas from Cali in my rented 2006 Dodge Charger. Sadly, I don't find myself in that situation very often http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  12. rluzinski
    Doesn't look like it's on XM. I'm really close to canceling this crap.
  13. rluzinski
    Are people purposely trying to be misleading by calling a muscle strain of the lat a "shoulder injury?" If a pitcher pulls thei bicep is it an elbow injury? Of course not. It's not an injury to the joint, it's an injury to the muscle. BIG difference.
  14. rluzinski
    Someone asked a question about Ned Yost IV and Darren Sutton mentioned that the question came from BF.Net. O sure, "Mr Power 50" can sign his questions "brewerfan.net" but stat-nerd rluzinski can't! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif
  15. rluzinski
    Milwaukee is playing Japan? Pretty cool. If USA wins today, I believe they would play Japan on Sunday.
  16. rluzinski
    And if I remember correctly, when Sheets was on the DL we had a winning record. Is Ben Sheets the best starter by far? Yes. His loss would be huge. That said, I don't think this is that bad. Worst case to me seems like he would miss the first couple of starts.
  17. rluzinski
    You know, it would be a shame to have the optimistic season since 1993 be ruined by this crap. I think it's nothing but still...
  18. rluzinski
    There is no class system here No, just "Directers of Amateur Baseball Operationists" http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif
  19. rluzinski
    Someone HAS to let me know exactly what Schroeder said about the "Eye of The Tiger."
  20. rluzinski
    My frustration stems from people making too much of a few meaningless spring training games, not for any knowlege you may or may not possess.
  21. rluzinski
    5th starter. Bush's job to lose now. O brother. Eveland was almost certainly not going to make the big leagues out of Spring training and one bad inning wasn't going to change that. Come on people.
  22. rluzinski
    There's been alot of talk about this, lately. Primary Numbers I Primary Numbers 2 I think that lineup constructer script is bologna. It's based on Morong's regression analysis work, which tried to find the value of OBP and SLG for lineups currently employed. I don't think he can help you gain insight on completely different lineups and it certainly can't tell you the "runs scored" implication of that lineup. Tangotiger, MGL and Dolphin just came out with a book and one of those chapters involves batting order optimization. I tried to use their general rules to construct the "correct" lineup for the Brewers: BA OBP SLG OPS 1 Fielder 0.268 0.349 0.489 0.838 2 Weeks 0.267 0.361 0.462 0.823 3 Jenkins 0.272 0.347 0.479 0.826 4 Lee 0.282 0.347 0.506 0.853 5 Koskie 0.251 0.351 0.431 0.782 6 Hardy 0.264 0.342 0.418 0.760 7 Clark 0.281 0.349 0.402 0.751 8 Pitcher 0.150 0.150 0.100 0.250 9 Miller 0.250 0.320 0.390 0.710 It could certainly be argued that Koskie and Jenkins should switch spots in that order, since the #3 hitter comes up most often with 2 outs and no one on. Koskie's high walk total would be best utilized there in that situation (a walk has the same value of a single with no one on). Personally, I'd rather have the stronger hitter at #3. This is all interesting discussion, but an optimized lineup is worth maybe 1 win over the course of a season. Considering that a team never really knows how well their batters are going to do anyway (this is all based on projections), it's almost not worth the trouble.
  23. rluzinski
    The 5 runs scored would be the most impressive part, IMO. OBP = (H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF) ROE isn't an AB? I always thought it hurt the batting average.
  24. rluzinski
    Winn goes yard off Cappy 1-0 I TOLD you Cappy would regress this year! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif Thanks for doing a pbp, brewer19 (atleast for as long as you can).
  25. rluzinski
    I know this has no meaning in this subforum, but a pitcher will act a little differently if he nibbles and misses four times than missing big with one pitch. It's certainly a logical theory but there's certainly no proff of that. Professional athletes' abilites are not nearly as dependant on emotion as fans think.
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