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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Down by 3 in the 7th and the Brewers are trying to steal bases. Sheesh.
  2. rluzinski
    So, has Cirillo become Yost's first PHer off the bench, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher? Must be that .580 OPS Cirillo has compiled against them since 2003 that entices Yost so. Not a big fan... of that.
  3. rluzinski
    Against Maddux, you only get one shot. This isn't 1993.
  4. rluzinski
    and rluzinski said he prefers Koskie over Branyan, it opens a hole in the "OPS rules" argument. Provided that was his aim: 1. OPS is a very rough measure of individual offensive worth. All OPS's are not created equal, since the not making outs can be just as (if not more) valuable as hitting for power. 2. OPS does not consider defense, obviously. Koskie is the superior defender without question. 3. OPS does not consider health. The biggest knock on Branyan, IMO, was not his propensity to strikeout but rather his ainability to stay healthy. A player who is hurt is worth nothing to his team.
  5. rluzinski
    Another reason we can't make the statement is multicollinearity. I conceded as much when I wrote, "The fact that OBP and SLG aren't independent probably makes the exercise doomed at the start." I appreciate that because OBP and SLG are very dependant of each other (sharing the BA component) you can't use multilinear regression on them at all. The rest of my post was meant to be more of a "what if they were independent" exercise. Someone that weighs 200 lbs and puts 50% in play still works out to 32 HR's. But now, each percentage point increase is only worth 1.6 times a pound of weight. All I did was change the scale. This is why you can't use coefficients as relative weights. It's apples & oranges. Now this is where you lose me. It's worth 160 times BIP if it's in the form of "0.xx" and 1.6 times BIP if in the form "xx.0". If you relate it back to the units, both are a true statement. Now, if one makes the illogical jump to suggest one variable influences the equation more or is more "imporant" than the other irrespective of each variables scale, they are missing the boat. Scale does matter then. If player weight varies from 1,500 - 10,000 lbs, the BIP contribution to HR would be miniscule. You wouldn't recognize that without looking at scale.
  6. rluzinski
    I tried my hand at this in THIS thread and picciolo and end warned me of my mistakes then. After doing my best to learn some things abut statistics I've learned that I have a lot more to learn. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The fact that OBP and SLG aren't independent probably makes the excercise doomed at the start. For what it's worth, this was the equation: Runs = (1444 x OBP) + (898 x SLG) - 443 I now understand making a blanket statement like, "OBP is more important than SLG" and supporting it by comparing ratios is clearly wrong. Would it be incorrect to say it like this, however: In the current environment, an increase in OBP of one point has the same effect on a team's runs scored as an increase in SLG of 1.6 points. According to the equation, this is a fact: OBP SLG Runs 0.300 0.450 394.3 0.310 0.450 408.7 0.300 0.466 408.7 Provided that we relate the ratio back to a "per unit" of the variable, it seems to keep us out of trouble, no? Since I did that mini-study, I've read a million studies taking different approaches to compare the relative value of OBP and SLG. One study took the very straight forward approach of using linear weights to estimate what a team with a particular kind of OBP and SLG would score (think it was in the last "By The Numbers"). They would add or subtract various baseball events until they would get the OBP and SLG they wanted, then look at the estimated sun scored. It came up with a 1.3 OBP/SLG ratio, if I recall correctly.
  7. rluzinski
    I was a Branyan supporter when he was here but guess what? The Brewers got a better option and I moved on. I suggest you do the same.
  8. rluzinski
    Sweeps sure are nice. I bet all those Braves fans are pissed that the Braves could allow themselves to get swept. They must not have wanted it enough today. Brewers on pace for 88 wins.... On a side note, only in MLB can a pitcher give up 2 earned runs in 1 inning and have that considered an outing worth rewarding with a "save". I pitcher could have a 18.00 ERA and lead the league in saves! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  9. rluzinski
    You just know the whole Braves offense is thinking, "O no, not again!"
  10. rluzinski
    The AB started with men at first and second but they advanced on a ball in the dirt that Damian couldn't find. Then they just went ahead and walked Dunn. OK, that makes a lot more sense. I thought Yost had lost his mind.
  11. rluzinski
    Maybe I read this wrong but did the Brewers intentionally walk Dunn with men on 1st and 2nd? It's nice to see that Bill Schroeder is now managing the game.
  12. rluzinski
    Anytime the Brewers lose, they take a hit in the casual fan crowd. I don't see how this game has more significence to them than last night's game, when the Brewers went below .500 for the first time this year. If the Brewers are 5 games over in July, the casual an will notice.
  13. rluzinski
    So Ned won't even pinch hit for Moeller in the bottom of the 9th? Yost will always have a place in his heart for crappy white backup catchers. STUPID.
  14. rluzinski
    I am sick of Ben getting jobbed by horrible run support and crappy defense. I guess this proves once again that he's not a winner... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  15. rluzinski
    An excerpt from "The Book": LINK
  16. rluzinski
    I guess it was a horrible turnout. I think many of are dedicated to making sure that doesn't happen again, however.
  17. rluzinski
    Another hit with RISP....
  18. rluzinski
    Same old Brewers" ... what's wrong with that? It get's old after the millionth time. In fact, I think there's more thought behind the negative posts than there is behind the positive ones. Yeh, takes a lot of brain cells to write "Typical Brewers" over and over.
  19. rluzinski
    but we still can't get a single with runners on 2nd and 3rd.. Hall vs. Lidge.... batters have a career .206 against Lidge. It was a good AB. Let's try and be a little fair.
  20. rluzinski
    Well, this was a tough loss, but you certainly can't accuse them of giving up tonight. It was entertaining to watch at the very least.
  21. rluzinski
    Prince keep this game alive!
  22. rluzinski
    Up, to the Prince.
  23. rluzinski
    Um, SHEESH! This game is insane.
  24. rluzinski
    It was a good AB against a very tough pitcher.
  25. rluzinski
    CIRILLO, BLOOP ONE SOMEWHERE AGAINST LIDGE, PLEASE......
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