rluzinski

AIN'T OVER YET!!!!

There's Lee with another useless HR when the game is already over!! Just kidding http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Katulu, I refer you to Brian's post above. O brother... If people want to irrationally vent, I suggest the "Official Venting Thread". You can tear into any player (not brewerfan.net member, of course) you want and no one is going to ask you to justify your statement. "I'm rluzinski and I'm not only the founder of the Official Venting thread (Part II), I'm lalso a member!"

Thought some of you minor league guys would find this interesting: Future Shock - When Translating College Statistics Is a Bad Idea I think the article is pretty bad, but the discussion at baseball Think factory is pretty interesting, IMO: BTF Article Discussion Here's MGL's (he works for the Cards) explanation of some necessary conversions: Doesn't seem like Braun has missed a beat in the power department thus far...

Get rhythm, when you feel the blues...

6 runs on 3 hits. Unreal. It's like things even out over 162 games....

THIS GAME SUCKS! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Today's a new game and the game is currently tied. It's a long season.

once again, typical Can anything negative happen without someone saying, "typical"? Maybe it's time to forget about the craptitude of the past and enjoy these games...

Believe me..this gets rough...in the 5 years of brewerfan, we've had the k's vs. other outs argument about 50 times...that means that 10 times a year the exact same conversation is repeated.. That's why I think it helps to archive some of thethe more repetative threads. The "4-3" thread in the statistical forum can be referenced now when the "strikeouts don't matter" topic comes up (can we rename that thread, BTW?). Like you said, that doesn't mean it can't be discussed further; just that the same thing doesn't have to be typed by the same people over and over. why do you think rluz has 8000 posts? It's because once a week someone says: "Carlos Lee is a gamer and Geoff jenkins sucks" or "Ben Sheets is no good" I'd have 10,000+ easy if Ginter and Branyan hadn't been traded. Thank gosh they were!

Thus, a team would need to convert 500 (50k/run X 10 runs/win) non-k outs into k's to lose 1 additional game Give or take some, yes. Let's look at the Crew from last year: SO: 1162 SF: 38 SH: 66 GIDP: 137 The above estimation says that the Brewers would have won about 2 more games if they hadn't struck out once. The flip side is if every out the Brewers made last year was via a K (about 3,000 extra Ks). Let's try and use a common sense approach to estimate the run/win impact of that: * They would have forgone 38 sac flies. Some percentage of those runners would still have eventually scored. We'll say they lose the majority of those runs (-30). * They would have zero sac hits, instead of the 66 sac hits. There would have also been other siutions where a runner wouldn't have advanced as well. This is hard one to estimate... maybe 45 runs?). * They would have had 137 less outs from having no GIDP. Linear weights gives an out a value of about -.25 runs. -.25 run/out x 137 outs = about 34 runs saved. -30 runs - 45 runs + 34 runs = -41 runs = ~ 4 wins That's in the ballpark of the original estimation of .04 runs/K (.02 runs/K x 3,000 Ks = 60 runs = 6 wins)) On a team level, K's barely hurts a team. It's why most run estimators don't even bother using K numbers at all.

I just go to a player's ESPN Player's Card and click on "Gamelog". They list each of the pitcher's appearances and what the result was. Here's Davis's.

I like the idea of the game MVP. My vote is Ohka...

Why was this game not on TV?????? WOW.

I know that if the situations were reversed...the Cards would come right back and regain the lead. The Cards were a great team last year and still lost 40% of their games. You guys give them a little to much reverence

Was Pujol's walk and intended, more or less?

I bet all the Cards fans are complaining about how their team always makes mistakes. They make the same mistakes as everyone else. It just usually doesn't matter cus they are up by 4 runs.

Not a big fan of having a 48 year old in the #2 spot, but hey. I predict Clark will open the game off with a walk and Yost will call for the sacrifice http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

we certainly don't want anyone talking about our ace's big comeback on the wrong board. There already IS a thread discussing it. Did you not follow the link or what?

Why? Why? Why is it so hard for you to just follow the rules of the forum? If your thread is a good one, it will get the exposure you want no matter where you put it. The only kind of exposure you are getting right now is a negative one.

They can be found on a whole bunch of different websites. Sure, for individuals. I've never seen aggregate breakdowns, however. This stuff would have to be broken down a lot more to be useful. Knowing the batter's BABIP or "BIP power", for instance. Also, I believe this was done with a few years worth of stats from MLB. So I don't believe that it is a small sample. It was inferred that the above numbers were taken from the first couple of Brewer games.

Izzy comes in and slams the door, rather than Mulder coming out and giving up a hit, and the Looper experience. Exactly. The Brewers never would have seen Looper and his 85 MPH fastball. It's unfair to almost ever blame one person for a loss anyway.

A post from MGL in this thread about strikes: This is based on actual in game data, not simulations or permutations. It's what has actually happened.

It would be nice to stick it to the Cards in the their brand new park and hold onto first place for a little longer.

DHonks, You've made the following comments about Jenkins in this thread: It's one series, but it's rough when Jenkins has no chance before the at bat has begun. Today is the first day where I've finally made comments about how terrible he looks at the plate. Jenkins looks lost up there right now Yet Jenkins is in one of those streaks right now where a groundball out is progress. What have you noticed about his approach that's different than usual? You suggest it's obvious but I don't see it. What should I be looking for? This comment: I just hope Jenkins starts hitting the ball, and hitting it hard, ASAP ...suggests that he isn't currently hitting the ball hard. That's contrasted by your comments about Clark's struggles: He's putting the ball in play, but they're all liners right at guys. Perhaps it's some tough luck. So Jenkins can't make good contact but Clark might just be getting unlucky? The numbers don't seem to agree with this notion. 30% of Jenkins' balls in play this year have been considered line drives (3 of 10). For Clark, only 12% have been line drives (2 of 17). In fact, Over half of Clark's total BIPs have been grounders. If anyone has been unlucky, it's Jenkins. Jenkins' contact rate will always be lower than Clark's but when he does put the ball in play, it's usually better contact. Jenkins is and always will be a free swinger. As such, he concentrates his value over a limited number of plate appearances. I think that fact makes it difficult for people to stay objective when making obervations about him. That's why it's important to check the numbers and make sure they are in agreement.