rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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No...it really doesn't. It's clearly faulty science when it comes to applying it to actual games and to state as a matter of fact that you can determine that Braun would be worth this many more wins via WAR is bad science and bad math IMO. I try to stay away from matter of fact statements, though I do state things in opinion as though they're fact. But I'm saying it's a fact that you can't take WAR and directly relate it to a teams wins and losses. I think you need to read my post my post again. I never suggested it was being applied to any actual game. The whole point of my post is that we will never know how the Brewers would have performed without Braun. They might be leading the division without him for all we know! WAR simply applies Braun's 2012 context neutral aggregate production to average games in the current run environment. It is "good enough for me", since we can't really answer the original poster's question.
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"Truth is though...there just isn't much he can do. I think we have had 7 suicides this year out of 8 attempts." As I've pointed out before, generally speaking, you almost have to have a 100% success rate with suicide squeeze attempt in order to make it a winning strategy. That's what every other manager but RR seems to appreciate. Yes, if it's late and you need one run and the batter up is bad, it makes a lot more sense. But again, other managers appreciate that the situation has to be right. RR thinks that anytime you have a runner at 3rd with less than 2 outs, it's a potential squeeze situation.
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The sac bunt leads to an IBB to Ryan Braun
rluzinski replied to Bombers's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Some rough numbers to give us some perspective: Average Runs Scored: 1st and 2nd, 0 out: 1.57 runs Loaded, 1 out: 1.65 runs Braun getting an AB in scenario 1 is going to close that gap, so it's probably close to a wash, either way. I think the whole thing is just an example of over-managing countered with over-managing. First, I don't understand why RR is constantly playing for 1 run. Unless the Brewers are down big, that is his default strategy. And walking the bases loaded is almost never a good strategy, since a walk bringing a run in overwhelms the advantage of a force at every base and the opportunity of a double play. -
It's driving me crazy as well. Seems like he is managing scared these days. He could have the bases loaded and no out and would be happy to score 1 run.
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What's up with RR and pitch counts all of a sudden? He feeling the heat already?
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Lots of pitches but only 1 run at least.
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The last time the Brewers had a 3 game winning streak was on April 11th. Let's limp to another 3 game winning streak today. It's hard not to shake your head at that lineup, though: 1 great hitter 1 good hitter 1 good hitter with a bad start 1 good hitter with a terrible start 1 Japanese guy that we still aren't sure about 3 bad hitters 1 pitcher Let's go get em!
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In a 1 run win, you could claim anyone who got a run or RBI won the game for their team, so you can't give a full win to any one player. Seems to be what many fans want to do and may be one reason why so many scoff at the relatively low seasonal "wins above AAAA player" numbers even a great batter puts up in a year. Also, fans seem to also sometimes ignore when a batter does something that hurts the odds of a team winning. You have to sum it all up. WPA gives a percentage credit or debit for each PA but you can receive +WPA in a loss and -WPA in a win. Not sure if the original poster wants to include that performance or not. Also, WPA does not adjust for opportunity. If Braun has had a lot of opportunity to shift the team's odds of winning a game, so might have his replacement. Here are the WPA values for the Brewers so far this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&players=0 Not unexpectedly, Braun has more net WPA that anyone else on the team. His LI is about 1, which means he's average in terms of having gotten opportunities to rack up WPA. Really though, it's impossible to reconstruct each game, with Braun being replaced by Aoki or whatever. His WAR does tell us that if he had been replaced by a AAAA backup and played in completely average games, he would have won 3 more games for his team than his scrub replacement. That's good enough for me.
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That is just so incorrect on a fundamental level. Sure, if a guy is hitting close to his preseason expectations, he's going to expect to continue to hit there. But to just assume guys like Lucroy and Weeks will continue performing like they have for the first 200 PA is illogical. It is certainly a possibility but far from expected. Same goes for the teams with the best and worst records.... best and worst anything really. Regression. I've said this many times before but I am amazed that so many longtime baseball fans think 200 PA is a big sample.
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How big of an effect would selling have on attendance?
rluzinski replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Two big differences. First, this year's team currently has significantly less overall talent. Second, Greinke and Marcum are both now on the last year of their contracts. It doesn't look like either are going to resign in-season, so trading them now will really only effect this year's team. Sure, most teams are only a "nice win streak" away from leading their division but I don't think that is the litmus test for determining when to go into sell mode. if it was, no one would ever sell. You have to come up with a reasonable estimate for how LIKELY it is that the Brewers can make the post season this year. That (and the resulting drop in revenue from decreased in-season revenue) is the cost of selling. For the sake of minimizing how much you piss off the season ticket holders, I would wait until the end of June to start selling. If the Brewers find themselves in about the same situation as they do now, I would start shopping Greinke, Marcum, Wolf and KRod. -
He's still striking out all the time. Plus, he still isn't swinging at the first pitch fastball right down the middle. Rickie has never swung at the first pitch very often. Perhaps he's getting more to hit earlier in the count this season but I don't see why that would be the case. I would expect the opposite, actually.
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Weeks' pitch was especially bad but batters swing at terrible pitches all the time. How many times have we seen a batter strike out on a ball that bounces 5 feet in front of the plate? Sometimes batters decide to swing even before the pitch is thrown. That's going to make them look foolish on occasion.
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155 has limited value with regard to estimating future performance. Your analysis does not address that fact at all.
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Brewers claim Cody Ransom, option Maysonet
rluzinski replied to splitterpfj's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
FWIW: ZiPS Projection: Ransom: .229/.294/.415 Izturis: .237/.277/.290 Izturis is probably going to be the WAYYY better defender, though. -
What do you think we have in Aoki?
rluzinski replied to SenatorShriv's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The problem is that he'll probably have a "just enough" type bat as well there. I'm not saying he shouldn't get some playing time there but it's more a function of not having any decent options at 1st or the corner OF spots. -
I actually haven't had much problem with the squeeze calls; they seem to have had a very high success rate so far. The reason why you don't see most teams call NEARLY as many squeeze plays is because they understand that the risk isn't generally worth the reward: Average Run Scored: Runner at third, 0 out: 1.5 runs Runner at third, 1 out: 1 run Runner at first and third, 0 out: 1.9 runs Runner at first and third, 1 out: 1.2 run loaded, 0 out: 2.4 Loaded, 1 out: 1.7 I'm sure having a couple of week batters coming up make it a much more favorable move but unless the success rate is 100%, it's a risky proposition. Now, if it's late and you really only need 1 run, that changes things. Again, that situation really doesn't come up very often.
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I can't believe I just spent almost 5 hours watching this. Makes me feel kind of stupid.
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Izturis 0-6. Of course, when you get 5 hits in 14 innings, there are plenty of terrible offensive performances to go around. Hart, crush one please.
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Sounded like a classic exaggeration until I saw the replay. Not sure I've ever seen a "batter" bail on a strike like that ever.
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The Giants haven't scored in 12 innings and still haven't lost.
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The number of lefty hitters the Brewers have just kills them. It's kind of absurd.
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Nice catch Aoki! Smashes into the wall catching a foul ball. Can we please start a winning streak now?
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Parra gets to face 3 lefties to start this inning and hits the third one. Depressing,
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Just crazy to watch a 12+ inning game with no commercials.
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Wow, awful bunt and Ramirez gets a bad jump and runs... a little slow.