rluzinski

You continue to argue that you can't predict player performance with a high degree of certainly. I continue to nod my head in agreement. Still, we have some statistical tools at our disposal that have proven to give some insight on the subject. You don't agree? That's your prerogative. I will continue to tout updated ZiPS projections as an objective estimate of future performance and you will continue to exclaim, "These players aren't robots"! Everything will be as it should be. In many areas, such as business or science, statistics are very powerful and have been shown to be very useful. They are why casinos make money and people release political polls and predict particle behaviors, etc. Now look at sports betting, using the same tools the results are totally different. No one, from anyone's uncle's gut the MIT PhD likely employed at the MGM can predict sports at the same level as other things. There is a reason the sports book is hidden in the back of the casino and you have to walk past 10,000 slot machines to get there. I have used baseball statistics to make money, so I know a lot more than you realize about what they can and can't do. Dozens upon dozens of studies have been done to quantify the uncertainty in these estimates. Why do you keep acting like that uncertainty is being ignored? This always just becomes a straw man argument where you are arguing against someone who says that projections can predict the future. Well congratulations, you won.

You continue to argue that you can't predict player performance with a high degree of certainly. I continue to nod my head in agreement. Still, we have some statistical tools at our disposal that have proven to give some insight on the subject. You don't agree? That's your prerogative. I will continue to tout updated ZiPS projections as an objective estimate of future performance and you will continue to exclaim, "These players aren't robots"! Everything will be as it should be.

Weeks, since May 30th: 79 PA, .266/.392/.344/.736 You can argue that the old Weeks is still MIA (really high walk rate, little power) but that is actually really good production from a second basemen. Also, 68 games is a pretty small sample for anyone and a very small sample for reliever. I am not happy with Afxord's performance in his 27 innings this year but I trust his updated ZiPS projection (3.23 ERA) a lot more than just assuming he will continue to struggle. I dont care about sample size, we dont need anymore time to see things "even" for these guys. Axford is not sucking because of bad luck due to a high BABIP or HR/FB. He is sucking because he is cannot throw quality strikes with any of his pitches. He needs to fix this Same with Weeks, he is not going through a rough patch of line drive outs. He is striking out a ton and not driving the ball at all. What did Week's ZIPs say on May 1? I would guess it would not have him entering today hitting .184. Statistics predict the group, not the individual. Maybe all league-wide ZIPS end up being pretty good but I dont put much stock into it for any individual player. Half the players outperform their ZIPs and half underperform. Your argument is incompletely illogical. Yes, it is incredibly difficult to project the individual player. We both agree on that. But in the same breath, you are offering up your own projection for these players. You are projecting future performance by assuming that players will continue to perform exactly how they have been in the current season. You are implying that will result in a more accurate projection than one that also considers production outside the current season. If you think you can predict future performance better than statistics methods can, start a blog and prove it. Hell, sell your insights to gamblers and people who play fantasy baseball. Otherwise, you are just another baseball fan convinced that they know something they don't.

Weeks, since May 30th: 79 PA, .266/.392/.344/.736 You can argue that the old Weeks is still MIA (really high walk rate, little power) but that is actually really good production from a second basemen. Also, 68 games is a pretty small sample for anyone and a very small sample for reliever. I am not happy with Afxord's performance in his 27 innings this year but I trust his updated ZiPS projection (3.23 ERA) a lot more than just assuming he will continue to struggle.

This is a valid reason for thinking RR does not know what he's doing. Even if we assume Gomez has to start against a righty (and unless Aoki and Green are not available, he doesn't), it is indefensible to have him lead off. Sub. 300 career obp and he doesnt even have the platoon advantage. YIKES.

How is that clear? What many hear are saying (and i agree with) is that there is nothing clear regarding the relationship between batter performance and batting coach performance. We simply aren't in a position to judge.

You are measuring bad based on game outcomes, so of course.

Hah! Ransom is our power option off the bench. Right.

Wouldn't really matter much what order they pitch in.

That didn't take long. The free baseball this year has been painfully to watch. Just hoping for any free baseball tonight.

Parra is just insanely wild right now.

Come on Parra, hold it to one free run.

I think RR is not a good manager but he would have to be omnipotent to not be criticized. Braunnnnnnnnnnn. No.

Yes!!!!

Braun is a free swinger that can foul off terrible pitches. So much fun to watch. No double play!

Every stat gets abused by people who don't know how to use them. Some still misuse BA all the time ("He's batting .300, he's a great hitter!"). Do you have a problem with BA as a result as well? Your concerns with how people misuse WAR should be kept separate from your criticisms of how WAR is constructed. Personally, I think the foundation of WAR is solid. If we can agree on that, then we can argue about the pros and cons of the particulars. I'm glad there are two popular websites with different implementations of WAR (Fangraphs and BR.com). It's an ongoing science experiment.

Blind speculation of course but I just don't get the impression that Braun would have told them anything very specific.

Here is a whole thread about Lawrie, his inflated DRS numbers this year (the defensive metric BF.net uses) and defensive shifts: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/has_brett_lawrie_already_saved_14_runs_so_far_this_year/ MGL, who created UZR said this, "For the record, when there is a shift and it “affected” the play (whatever that means), according to the data provider, UZR ignores that play." That is news to me. I guess DRS does not do this.

What it should do is cause you to question the validity of defensive metrics based on small samples. WAR is trying to estimate the value of a player's performance over a certain period of time. It is NOT trying to estimate the true level of talent of a player. For batter stats, sample size doesn't matter. A single is a single, no matter if it was a line drive one hopper to the CFer or a 8 hopper groundball between 3rd and short. The batter is given the run value of an average single in an average base/out situation. For defense, it's different. We don't know if a defender saved a hit or botched a sure out, so we make an educated guess based on the trajectory and speed of the hit ball. That may work reasonably well over thousands of fielding opportunities but there is just too much noise after even half a season. Long story short, in-season WAR numbers are very suspect when they are heavily influenced by the defensive run component. I'm even suspicious of single year WAR values when they include double-digit defensive run values. It seems to me like the defensive component should be regressed. With more and more teams employing extreme shifts, I believe that is a huge issue these days. I've heard the creator of UZR downplay that concern by stating that defensive positioning is a player skill, just like any other defensive skill. I agree with that in principle but often, the team is dictating a player's position, not the player himself.

What it should do is cause you to question the validity of defensive metrics based on small samples. WAR is trying to estimate the value of a player's performance over a certain period of time. It is NOT trying to estimate the true level of talent of a player. For batter stats, sample size doesn't matter. A single is a single, no matter if it was a line drive one hopper to the CFer or a 8 hopper groundball between 3rd and short. The batter is given the run value of an average single in an average base/out situation. For defense, it's different. We don't know if a defender saved a hit or botched a sure out, so we make an educated guess based on the trajectory and speed of the hit ball. That may work reasonably well over thousands of fielding opportunities but there is just too much noise after even half a season. Long story short, in-season WAR numbers are very suspect when they are heavily influenced by the defensive run component. I'm even suspicious of single year WAR values when they include double-digit defensive run values. It seems to me like the defensive component should be regressed.

Silly to let them choose. It will always be c, a and b.

The first 3 guys you listed played a major part in getting the Brewers to the second round of the playoffs last year. The only guy on that list who probably never projected to be worth his 2012 salary was KRod but relievers generally aren't worth very much in general (they just don't accumulate enough innings to be worth a ton). You seem to be advocating a scrubs and studs approach, which can work but is most certainly not the only option. $8-$10 mil/year gets you an average player who is is worth about 2 wins over a scrub.

Fair enough but the point remains, the Brewers never owned 2012 Hardy. Maybe they would have had the opportunity to resign him and maybe that contract would have been ultimately favorable to the Brewers but we'll never know.

What Hardy is doing now has nothing to do with whether the Brewers traded him or not. He's been a free agent. The Brewers were free to try and resign him. When trying to analyze a trade, you compare the dollar value of the players' contracts at the time they were traded. Then you have the choice of either looking at the estimated expected future production at the time of the trade or the actual production (hindsight).

Wow, as a bit of a Sheets fanboy, I google him from time to time to see if he's been in the news. After over a year of nothing, I figured he decided to hang it up. He's only pitched 120 innings since 2008 is 33 years old, so it will be an uphill climb to say the least. I wonder if he would consider coming back as a reliever, even if only to start? He's always been a 2 pitch guy to begin with. Then again, he did show some signs of needing an inning to get his velocity up, so maybe relieving would be an issue. Let's assume he's lost 3-4 MPH and tops out at 90 MPH. I think think that will still be plenty fast when you couple it with his deceptive 12-6 curve. Of course it's quite possible that his days of even touching 90 are behind him, so we shall see.