Jump to content
Want to get your head around free agents the WORLD CHAMPION Brewers can spend on this winter? Click here and check out our top 75 free agents ranking! ×
Brewer Fanatic

rluzinski

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    9,362

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    but hadn't seen many comments from the "we aren't mathematically out of it even if we are only on pace to win 81 games" crowd. I've tried to steer this thread into the "winning record" direction, as opposed to using it to say people were "wrong" about the Brewer's wildcard chances.
  2. rluzinski
    Ahh yes. Where series probabilities and final record probabilities become one! [b] Fin Rec Prob[/b] Sweep 83 - 79 15.7% Win 2 82 - 80 40.2% Win 1 81 - 81 34.3% Swept 80 - 82 9.8% http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlohisto.gif So, 56% chance of a winning record and a 90% chance of a non-losing record. Hopefully Davis gets a much deserved win in the first game.
  3. rluzinski
    Not really much to it but: LINK
  4. rluzinski
    Yost is getting obsessed with suicide squeezes. How many people at the game?
  5. rluzinski
    Good to see the Brewers offense is in shut down mode again.
  6. rluzinski
    so we've got that going for us, which is nice. What is that from?
  7. rluzinski
    Good ole Eric Milton. great example of what run support can do for you. Despite having a crappy 4.75 ERA last year, he had a nice 14-6 record. Of course he had the third highest run support last year, at 6.54 runs/game. Can we please pound him so we don't need to sweep the Pirates for a winning record?
  8. rluzinski
    A split sureeeee would be disappointing.....
  9. rluzinski
    The more things change the more they remain the same. Nice knowing you, Obbie.
  10. rluzinski
    3.97 ERA for Caps now.... darn.
  11. rluzinski
    thats what we said 2 nights ago We were down by 5 runs to nights ago?
  12. rluzinski
    Friggin take Cap out. Good example of the manager caring more about a player more than the team.
  13. rluzinski
    Well, this one is most likely over. Too bad it looked like Dunn struck out twice before that RBI double.
  14. rluzinski
    Looked like Pena's head was wedged right into the base of the wall. OUCH.
  15. rluzinski
    I wish the Crew would K more... get rid of all these darn double plays http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  16. rluzinski
    What's amazing is that Harang pitches for a hitting team, has an ERA a touch less than Cap, but has eight less wins. Harang's "run support" (ESPN/s definition) hasn't been nearly as good as Capuanos: Harang: 4.32 (37th of 50 qualified pitchers) Capuano:6.61 (6th of 50) Harang has also had 19 quality starts, to Caps' 16. It's all around run support. On another note, if the Crew wins tonight: 81or more wins: 96% 82 or more: 77% 83 or more: 41% 84 wins: 10%
  17. rluzinski
    Since a pitcher's record is largely a function of their team's abilities, why even use it to help determine individual abilitiy at all? For example, Clemens has the best ERA but because his run support is 47th out of the 50 qualified pitcher in the NL his record is "only" 12-8. To evaluate him based on his win/loss record is absolute bull if you don't consider his run support and defense behind him. I'm sure teams and agents present meaningless stats all the time; that doesn't mean the arbitor can't simply disregard them. My hope would simply be that he knows which statistics are meaningful and significant. Of course, Sheet's street value was certainly less as a result of his mediocre win/loss record, so I guess it's helped the Brewers more than hurt them, but it's still not right.
  18. rluzinski
    It's a shame that an arbitor (sorry, I'm a Halo 2 fan) would use a stat that's only maybe 40% in the control of the pitcher (offense and defense being primarily out of his control). It's like trying to measure a pitcher's ability by a team's overall record. Yes, he certainly had some say to the record but if you can easily strip all that away, why wouldn't you? If I were an arbitor, I'd look at, in no particular order: Innings pitched K/IP BB/IP HR/IP ERA EDIT: Also: park the pitcher plays in and BABIP, compared to the rest of his team.
  19. rluzinski
    I REALLY hope win/loss records aren't used at ALL to determine arby numbers. Of course if they are, it's only helped the Brewers in the last couple of years. As for Cappy, he'll probably revert back to about 12-14 wins next year, so maybe they can argue he took a step BACK in 2006 to the arbitor.
  20. rluzinski
    I believe Sheets also had 8 tough losses and Davis had 7. Sheets had 9, Davis 6. Neither had a "cheap win". LINK
  21. rluzinski
    Cappy's pickoff move is a thing of beauty but I'd rather have the significantly more quality starts from Davis. Also, looking at FIP (Fielding independant pitching), which only looks at HRs, BB and K's: Sheets: 3.30 Davis: 4.02 Ohka: 4.09 (Mil) Capuano: 4.58 Santos: 5.05 Only Santos has a worse FIP.
  22. rluzinski
    I didn't mean to say Cap hasn't had a good year. He certainly has and will probably only get better. I still think he's only the 3rd best pitcher on the team, however.
  23. rluzinski
    In anticipation of having to hear how great Capuano has been this year during the telecast tonight (based mostly on his record), I thought I'd look at the team's starting pitchers' numbers: [b] REC ERA RS RS RK* TLoss CWin QS%[/b] Capuano 18 - 10 3.80 5.61 6 3 2 48% Ohka 11 - 8 3.95 5.62 5 3 0 57% Sheets 10 - 9 3.33 3.73 47 4 0 73% Davis 11 - 11 3.85 4.59 33 4 0 68% Santos 4 - 13 4.64 4.12 43 5 1 50% RS = Run Support = Number of runs scored for the pitcher while he was the pitcher of record, averaged over 9 innings RK = Run Support ranking, out of a total of 52 pitchers; 50 qualifying pitchers + Sheets & Santos TLoss = Tough losses = Losses in games where the pitcher had a "quality start" (3 or less runs in 6+ innings) CWins = Cheap Wins = Wins in games where the pitcher does not have a "quality start" QS% = Percent of starts where the pitcher had a "quality start" As you can see, out of the 5 starting pitchers with the most innings, Cap is actually last in QS%! He and Ohka have simply been blessed with great run support, which is a big reason for their good records. Santos with a 50% QS% and FIVE Tough Losses? He certainly fell apart towards the end of the year but he certainly wasn't helped by his team. With the run support Sheets had, he was LUCKY to be 10-9.
  24. rluzinski
    I'd also like to point out that this win guarantees that the Brewers finish no worse than 4th in the NL Central. Of course, we all want 3rd place, however.
  25. rluzinski
    Baaah! You all must have WINNING Karma! You lmust laugh at pathetic comeback attempts from inferior teams!
×
×
  • Create New...