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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Considering the fact that the home team has, on average, an 8% better winning % at home than on the road, there's no question that it helps. WHY is the bigger question. Much has to do with the "last AB" scenario described above but there's obviously something more human involved.
  2. rluzinski
    Last 5 games: 1, 14, 1, 0, 1. YUCK.
  3. rluzinski
    I would like this season to end, please.
  4. rluzinski
    Can we just drop JDLR if there is no situation where he will pitch? Why even have him on the team?
  5. rluzinski
    His Obbie REALLY better than JDLR? The game is friggin over. Give the kids some innings already.
  6. rluzinski
    He scored on an infield single to Weeks. Let me guess, Weeks just couldn't handle it but the home team official scorer gives his guys the RBI.
  7. rluzinski
    I'm glad this game isn't on tv. You suck, Obbie.
  8. rluzinski
    DUH. Turnbow is a CLOSER. You NEVER bring him in unless it's a save situation. Only a loser would do that. O yeh, and Garner.
  9. rluzinski
    Apparently a runner at 2B should try to advance on a hard grounder to the pitcher. Clark is the worst baserunner ever http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  10. rluzinski
    Can Cirillo do ANYTHING but try to sacrifice bunt? Just go fer a hit, please!
  11. rluzinski
    Naaa, FSN probably pays a premium to have exclusive rights to the broadcasts. Also, FSN can always outbid any local station. The Brewers gettingbetter will just make it HARDER for local stations. Remember when Channel 36 had Badger football games? I bet alot of you badger fans didn't even watch em back then. They STUNK.
  12. rluzinski
    Are they afraid the Brewers may get better ratings or what is the deal? 1 of 162 games vs. 1 of 12? & 1 of 16 Did I mentions football is alot more popular to begin with?
  13. rluzinski
    I use the pythagorean and log5 to come up with hypolthetical win % the Brewers "should" have against each team. It's all described in that log5 thread I linked too above.
  14. rluzinski
    But isn't this a bimomial in that only two events can occur per game, a win or a lose. If the team has a 60% chance to win, they have a 40% chance to loss: .6 + .4 = 1 Wouldn't a mutlinomial apply for something like soccer, where there are 3 possible events, win, loss or tie? For instance, a team could have a 60% chance to win, 30% chance to tie and 15% to lose: .6 + .3 + .1 = 1 You should check out my log5 / series probabilities thread, where I have math similar to some of yours, only with a binomial. LINK With the prob. not all being the same (like they are in a series) you would have to do it all long hand. It's just easier to simulate unless there IS a mathematical way to do it. I just haven't found one.
  15. rluzinski
    What are you talking about JJ doesn't belong in the same category as Weeks and Fielder? Weeks and Fielder have potential to be Hall of Famers. It's not a huge knock on Hardy to say he doesn't neccessarily have that potential. Are you on crack? My wife has asked me that a couple times. Look at the peripherals buddy. http://www.doyouremember.co.uk/images/memorabilia/Toys/my-buddy-doll.jpg Is JJ going to post Weeks numbers? Probably not. Will he hit for Prince Power? Probably not. Um, exactly? Baseball is a game of FAR more than stats and numbers. JJ is living proof of that. Did you just request that we LOOK at Hardy's stats? Will he be equally or mor eimportant to the success of our franchise moving forward? Absolutely! Did I miss the post where someone said, "Hardy will not add success to this franchise, causing the Crew to take a step back"? I've been one of Hardy's biggest advocates. I just don't think our new SS is going to hit like our new 1B, or future CFer (had to sneak that in http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ).
  16. rluzinski
    No that's great information. Thanks for the clarification. I knew you could approximate a binomial dist. with a normal one: now I know how. I'm still not clear exactly how to use a multinomial, but I suspect it's what I have here. What I am doing is VERY simple. Let's say the Brewers are playing 3, 1 game series in a row and have a probability of beating each team, .5, .6, .55, respectively. I'm just running a crummy simulation, generating a random number for each game and summing up the wins. Repeat 10,000 times and get a decent approximation of the true probabilities of winning 0 games, 1, game, etc... I actually did it for the last 19 games, but as the team plays a game I simply change the probability to 1 or 0, depending on the outcome of the game. I searched high and low for a more elegant way to solve this, but it appears most SABR guys "cheat" by simulating lot's of stuff. Alot of SABR guys (like me) don't have a statistics background, so it's usually just easier to throw a couple random number functions into excel. If you have any advice or questions, I'd love to hear it.
  17. rluzinski
    As good as JJ has been lately, and as solid as I think he's going to be for the next several years, I don't even think he belongs in the same grouping as Weeks and Fielder at this point. Agreed. hardy is supposed to be a solid SS with good defense. Weeks and Fielder are supposed to be offensive powerhouses. Hart is supposed to be an OK OF (he'll gain value if he can hack CF full time).
  18. rluzinski
    Now I have to be in the minority to voice my opinion? Ok boss. No, only when you are making one your "scoop" predictions you should be. It's kinda like me saying, "I predict the Brewers will have 78 wins or more this year." I would really like a nice freeze frame of Hart's stance where it's obvious that he's changed the orientation of his back elbow.
  19. rluzinski
    Above .500 should still be the goal: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo16.gif http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo16histo.gif
  20. rluzinski
    He has a lot to overcome before I will consider him a key component of the Milwaukee future. He is not in the league of Weeks, Fielder or Hardy. And you think you are in the minority for thinking that? I think most realize that he has maybe a 50% chance of being a mlb starter.
  21. rluzinski
    Get used to it. Yeh, yeh. The elbow thing. Got it.
  22. rluzinski
    What a miserable game for Hart.
  23. rluzinski
    Clutch Update: Brewers are 8 for 16 w/RISP Someone verify that? Hard to keep up.
  24. rluzinski
    I have to agree about the pitch counts. JDLR is just rotting out there. Who cares if he gives up 4-5 runs in 3 innings?
  25. rluzinski
    Brewers are 7-13 w/RISP. CLUTCH!!!!!
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