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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    So what are the Brewers w/RISP this game?
  2. rluzinski
    Naaa, it's going to be a 20-0 No hitter. Highest score ever in a no hitter (I would guess http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ).
  3. rluzinski
    Awww, Lee had to ruin the fun http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  4. rluzinski
    Bases loaded for LEE. This inning is insane. Jack a Grand Slam to make it an even 11 runs for the inning http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  5. rluzinski
    I stay up until 1 AM last night to watch the Brewers score 1 run in 13 innings. The game isn't even on TV and the Brewers have 9 runs in 2+ innings. Bastards.
  6. rluzinski
    another must win situation for the Brewer's and the drive to.500 *--------------------* * MUST WIN COUNT * *--------------------* * 59 OF 146 GAMES * * * * 40%!! * *--------------------*
  7. rluzinski
    ANYONE Realize where this Team could be if they could have learned to Hit in the Clutch at all this year. The Brewers are about 20 hits w/RISP behind their overall team .257 BA pace . The Brewers have lost about 28% of their games by 1 or 2 runs. Assuming those 20 lost hits were evening distributed throughtout the whole season: 20 hits x .28 = 6 hits That's 6 hits w/RISP that should have occured in games the Brewers lost by 1 or 2 runs; 6 potential games that could have turned in the Brewer's favor with an extra hit. I would estimate the amount of games that would have turned into Brewer wins at about 3 games. That's a theoretical 75-71 record. Still in third in the NL Central and tied for 4th in the wildcard race (maybe a 3% chance to win it). O wait, was that a rhetorical question? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif
  8. rluzinski
    I bet no one would have the balls to try and defend Clark's base stealing abilites anymore http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/sick.gif
  9. rluzinski
    Kane Davis looking UNHITTABLE. Please end this. 12:46 pm *yawn***
  10. rluzinski
    Wierd. I thought everyone but the Brewers successfully sacrifices 100% of the time. I'm confused.
  11. rluzinski
    Apparently Hart trying to steal has caused Webb to lose his mind. game tying... BALK!?
  12. rluzinski
    Yost has stuck with what's been hot all season. Hall has had batted .243 with a sub .675 OPS for over half the season, but because he's had 3 games and 12 AB where he's done well, he should be played? Using a handfull of ABs to decide who starts doesn't make sense to me anyway. Owell. This lineup has been working. So they score 3 runs but win, so it's working?
  13. rluzinski
    Well, I just took a 2.5 hour nap, so I'm set tonight! Go Brewers!
  14. rluzinski
    Without further delay..... *--------------------* * MUST WIN COUNT * *--------------------* * 58 OF 145 GAMES * * * * 40%!! * *--------------------* Congratulations, Brewerfan.net!
  15. rluzinski
    I was hoping this could be more of an archive than anything else. If it's really for any statistical related analysis, then my "Final Record Prob." thread should have been moved a long ago. Really, most people don't even bother looking here.
  16. rluzinski
    They have about a 3x better chance at making the post season than the Brewers do http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  17. rluzinski
    lets get on the right side of the bell curve! Actually, a bell curve is found from data that is normaly distributed. This is actually a binomial distribution (or actually multinomial I think http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ). Maybe someone who actually knows can clear this up.
  18. rluzinski
    Has yesterday's chart (the one in the post with the quoted edit) been changed? In other words, does it still have the error? It's been fixed. Even one win dramatically changes the odds.
  19. rluzinski
    Appreciate the effort, but you went to a whole lot of trouble to prove what we already know. The Brewers more than likely will be at or near .500. You can just always just extrapolate a team's winning % to estimate a team's final record. This whole thread was to calculate the odds of finishing BETTER than expected while incorporating the strength of schedule and home/road aspect of it. With so much talk of what final record the Brewers need to have a shot at the wildcard, I thought this could be of some help. Depends on pitching match-ups, if 3 or 4 guys can get hot at the same time, etc. Most of what is characterised as "getting how" is just normal random variance anyway, so that's pretty much what's being shown above.
  20. rluzinski
    http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo18histo.gif
  21. rluzinski
    That's why I put "Wins in last 19 Games" at the very top of the table. All I did in my spreadsheet was change the probability of winning yeserday's game to 1 (since they already won it). This way, I don't have to change anything else. Sorry for the confusion. Just look at the final record coumn.
  22. rluzinski
    The point was that if we were even an average bunting team, we would have won 3 to 5 of the games that we have lost. I can't imagine that's even close to true but I have nothing to back that up with so.....
  23. rluzinski
    Updated for 9/14 Game: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/montecarlo18.gif I found a sizable error in my first attempt, causing higher probabilities . Everything is working good now.
  24. rluzinski
    .500 in September? It's been a long time! I know that our lack of ability to bunt has been discussed ad nauseum, but here is a perfect example as to how statistics can be thrown out the window with us, and intangebles are the ultimate difference between us and teams like Atlanta. Are you saying the ability to bunt is an intangiblethat teams like Atlanta almost never fail at sacrificing? League average for a successful sacrifice is something like 82% That doesn't include a guy attempting a sacrifice on the first 2 strikes and then swinging after that, so the actual success rate is even less. I have no idea what the distribution of the sacrifice success rate is among teams is but I suspect it's not nearly as large as people think.
  25. rluzinski
    It would have been nice if this thread hadn't been moved in the middle of an active discussion. I suspect some involved don't even know it's been moved here.
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