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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I'm just not a big fan of letting a mediocre starter bat for himself in the 7th or later. Ohka gives up as many runs/game or more than basically our whole bullpen.
  2. rluzinski
    ... and Dunn crushes one. That was a "no doubter."
  3. rluzinski
    Jenkins won't stop hitting. I need to send the guy a "I'm Sorry" card or something!
  4. rluzinski
    I like just locking threads as well. Most of the time the offending post is left there for all to read, so brewerfan.net can't be acused of censorship and everyone knows what's acceptable.
  5. rluzinski
    Lyle has crushed Claussen in the past but it's only over 13 AB. Not much of a sample size to draw conclusions from. As a whole I've never really understood the logic behind "Player A has batted .600 against team B." Are we supposed to believe that Lyle will crush the Reds no matter the pitcher?
  6. rluzinski
    At first I questioned why Yost would pinch hit Helms for Branyan against a righty but it actually made sense and worked out. You want a guy who'll make contact to score the guy. Fair enough.
  7. rluzinski
    Good to see magruder still stinks. I look forward to not having that guy on the team next year.
  8. rluzinski
    It really is fun to watch Weeks fly down the first base line and beat out infield grounders. He sure is a "toolsy" guy.
  9. rluzinski
    What a nice, laid back game.
  10. rluzinski
    but Overbay has not had the greatest year so why not see just what Fielder can do? Is that so wrong? Who said I didn't think Fielder should play next year? I was simply commenting on comments comparing Overbay's performance this year to Prince's possible performance next year. I think Prince is ready to come up and it would be a good time to trade Overbay. it's a no-brainer really.
  11. rluzinski
    Tell me that is not our best lineup we could put out there? OK I will. It's not http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Hall at 3B does not excite me. I also think it's unreasonable to assume that Fielder will be better than Overbay next year. Just like we all tried to warn people that Weeks wasn't going to dominate as a rookie, neither will Fielder.
  12. rluzinski
    I'm not even going to bother calculating the series odds. Any number I could come with isn't going to take into acount Helling AND Obbie getting a start anyway, so they would be useless.
  13. rluzinski
    Baseball Prospectus has added a link to their "postseason odds" page, showing a day-to-day odds for the whole season: LINK The Brewers had almost a 29% chance to make the post season at one point. Ugh.
  14. rluzinski
    Awwww nuts... I forgot, to be honest. I figured it out and put it on my calculator.... now I have to remember where those equations came from!
  15. rluzinski
    I can't believe I watched the WHOLE thing...
  16. rluzinski
    Down 5-0 in the bottom of the 5th and you have your starting pitcher lead off?
  17. rluzinski
    I'm ready for this season to end. I mean, I've already seen this game before. Rookie comes in and shuts down the Brewer bats. Blah, blah, blah.
  18. rluzinski
    Thank gosh that wasn't a HR.... would have killed the rally.
  19. rluzinski
    RLuz's Prediction ------------------------- Sweep 0%
  20. rluzinski
    This Pitsburg team is really good http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  21. rluzinski
    66.7% is brake even. anything over is worth it, anything under is not. CORRECT? On average, correct. Obviously, there are situations where a SB is more valuable and where a caught stealing is more costly, so it's not a steadfast rule. Some players might boost their SB by stealing 3B with 2 out (not much value at all). Some players might only get caught stealing when trying for 2B with 2 outs (not as bad). I'm sure you could quantify actual value and costliness (is that a word) of a particular player's steals and find who adds teh most value to a team in the league. I just might have to look into that http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Batting Runs is just another linear weights formula (there are several but they are all very similiar), which is found by performing multiple linear regression on actual team data. While not perfect (again, all the numbers are for average situations) I like it because it's simple and straight foward. Here's a nice article on the subject: Batting Runs and Linear Weights
  22. rluzinski
    S-RC = Simple or Basic Runs Created. It's Bill Jamess first crack at a run predicter. It's form was: Runs = [(Hits + BB) x Total Bases] / PA......(1) Since: OBP ~ (Hits + BB)/PA....(2) SLG = Total Bases / AB....(3) Subsituting (2) and (3) into (1) gives you: Runs = OBP x SLG x AB
  23. rluzinski
    Break Even: 2 SB = 1 CS http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/linsb.gif
  24. rluzinski
    I'm sure you all were waiting for this, so: Series Probabilities -------------------- Brewers Sweep 11% Brewers Win 2 36% Brewers Win 1 39% Brewers Swept 14% Final Record Prob. ------------------ 81-81 56.6% 82-20 43.0% 87-75 2.7% 89-73 0.4% Final Record Prob. (MIL Sweeps ATL) ------------------ 81-81 76.6% 82-20 64.4% 87-75 7.5% 89-73 1.4% Go get em, Sheets!
  25. rluzinski
    Here's the graph: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/batting_era.gif I guess that doesn't really tell you much. There doesn't seem to be much of a coorelation between pitching and batting ERA. Of course, it's really not that suprising that a pitcher with a 3.0 ERA can have significantly different results over each 6-7 inning appearance. It is interesting to look at the 5 data points past 6.0 ERA. Those 5 appearances included Hudson from Cinci (TWICE) and Hideo Nomo (bleh).
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