rluzinski

Did Sutton just call Beckett the Marlin's ace? I'm confused.

Beckett has gotten 2 outs if you don't count Hart.

When Hall gets into one, he sure hits them hard.

Ahhh, the Marlins score alot of runs because of their good base running. I guess it has nothing to do with their high batting average and OBP. Thanks Bill.

I just picture Branyan walking past Yost in the dugout just before the game: Yost: "Did you just sneeze?" Branyan: "Huh?" Y: " You just sneezed! Are you sick?" B: "Ummm, I didn't sneeze nor am I sick!" Y: "You're sick! Hall, get over here!! Your starting!" B: " Son of a ...."

How often does Jenkins NOT swing when he's ahead in the count? It doesn't matter where the pitch is. If he decides to swing he swings.

Carlos needed that.

Why was Branyan scratched?

rluzinski what are the probabilities of a Brewer's 9-3 homestand ? 9-3: 8% 10-2: 3% 11-1: 0.6% 12-0: 0.06% So about a 12% chance of going 9-3 or better.

yes, but isn't it intersting that a HBP scores 1% more than a single or walk? It certainly is. If I had to guess, it might be because a pitcher who was so wild as to hit the leadoff batter isn't pitching well. Walking a guy could be seen as wildness, but not nearly as much so. 1% isn't very much of a difference though.

Rlunz, how do you come up with your odds? I'll write up a short post with the exact equations in the "Statistical Analysis" Forum tonight. I use a combination of the Pythagorean Theorum and Log5 equation to come up with the probability of winning one game. I then adjust that to include an average home team advantage. From that it's pretty straight forward to come up with the chances of winning a specific number of games in a series. You must look at the probability of winning each game individually, right? Correct. To calculate the odds of winning a 3 game series, just add up the probabilty of winning 2 games and sweeping. In this case, there's a 51% chance of winning the series. As for why it's basically even odds for the Crew and Florida; The Brewers "home team" advantage is almost completely balanced by Florida being a slightly better team.

Rluz's Probabilities ---------------------- Brewers Sweep 13% Brewers Win 2 38% Brewers Win 1 37% Brewers Swept 12%

I've always heard that the leadoff walk scores 70% of the time, and according to the chart, a run scores 55.5% of the time in that scenario, so that's pretty close. Actually, per Table 1 of the above, the leadoff batter who walks scores 40% of the time. According to table 3, ZERO runs are score 56.6% of the time after a leadoff walk, which means that 1 or more runs is scored 43.4% of the time. Either number isn't very close to 70%. Table 3 agrees with Tangotider's run frequency table I pasted into the "SABR FAQ" thread that's pinned (page 2). It includes all the base/out states (0 outs, runners at 1, 0 outs, runners at 1 and 2, etc...). I find that thing absolutely invaluable. For instance, much has been made of the Brewers inability to: 1. Score a lead off double. 2. Score a runenr at third with 1 out. Looking at tango's run frequency table (again, table 3 above has about the same values) you can see that a leadoff double results in atleast 1 run 73% of the time (average of 1.1 runs are scored). A runner at third and 1 out results in atleast 1 run 66% of the time (average of .9 runs). While both are high, 1 in 4 leadoff doubles don't score and 1 in three runners at third w/1 out don't score. It's interesting to compare how often a a leadoff runner who singles/walks scores himself vs. how often that situation results in a 1 run. The lead off batter himself scores 40% of the time, while 1 or more runs is scored about 43% of the time overall. 3% of the time where an inning starts with a runner at 1st and 0 outs, atleast 1 run is scored, but not by the runner at first. I would assume 2.9% of the time the leadoff runner is forced out by the next batter, who eventually scores himself. Nice thread.

Dan Fox breaks down different types of BIPs (balls in play) and how often they are hits HERE. Here is the most important table: BIP Pct Outs Pct Ground 60234 42% 45433 75% Line 25654 18% 6712 26% Fly 47693 33% 37186 78% Pop 11010 8% 10784 98% Single Double Triple Homerun Ground 45% 14% 42% 0% Line 46% 50% 28% 14% Fly 8% 35% 30% 86% Pop 1% 0% 0% 0% Obviously, the higher the LD% you have the higher BA you should have, as well as more extra base hits. I don't have time to get into this like I could but Lyle Overbay led the league last year in LD% with 28%. Clark has a 27.1% LD%, so either the gentlemen in Milwaukee who designates the balls is extremely generous to the Crew or Clark has earned his good stats. It doesn't seem like a fluke, since 24% of his hits were linedrives last year too. Read the article above and HERE and do a search at hardballtimes.com if you want to learn more. Hardballtimes actually used an equation to eastimate what a person's BA,OBP and SLG should be. Bill Hall was one of the leaders in "luck."

That graph is just based on the pythagorean theorem. It's saying the Brewers should be 63.5-61.5; 2.5 more games than we have. While lack of fundamentals obviously contributed to that, two points: 1. The Brewers mistakes are magnified because we watch every game and because of their pathetic records of the last decade. I ighly doubt we are the worst team fundamentally. Unless you've watched every game in MLB, you wouldn't know anyway. 2. While 2.5 more wins would be nice, it still only put them 2 games over .500. We can kid ourselves all we want, but this isn't a playoff caliber team. Not yet atleast.

People are still talking about the WC? Victor has sure looked BAD lately.

So, as long as you take out the part of the season where they won alot of games, they are .500? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/grin.gif All stats point to Houston being exactly what they look like; a team that will finish with 86-89 wins and may win the wildcard.

If you're using the traditional standings "games back" figure, it's 1 game back of 81-81 and 2 from 82-80... since each win only gains you a half game in the standings. It's like.. The traditional "games back" number requires that your team wins AND your opponent loses to make up 1 "game back". Since my "opponent" cannot lose, I simply doubled that number. It seemed more descriptive to list the amount of wins the Brewers needed before playing .500 ball the rest of the way would have them reach their goal. Four more wins and they can coast to a winning record.

dont act like you are the only one who knows what a statistical longshot this is. We KNOW that there is a 1 in 100 shot I was simply responding to homer asking me to "live a little." We also know that we are a 5 or 6 game win streak away from raising the odds to about 1 in 20. Assuming a 50/50 chance of winning the next 5 games (I'm being generous), we have a 3% chance away from having a 5% chance of winning the wildcard? Is that supposed to change my perspective? If you cant allow yourself the joy of pondering those types of scenarios then I truely dont understand your passion for being a brewer fan... Just enoy the freaking ride with the knowledge that something special COULD happen. If you dont, why bother? I guess I could live every day HOPING that I win the lottery, or Angelina Jolie calls me up, but I don't operate like that. I'd rather set an aggressive but attainable goal of 84 wins. Baseball isn't a sprint; it's a marathon. I take greater solace as a Brewer fan knowing that we have a young team brimming with talent. It makes me giddy to think that we'll have guys like Sheets, Cappy, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, and Hardy for YEARS. I trully believe that with them and others, the Brewers are going to string together a few years where we won't HAVE to feaverishly hold on to a 1% chance of the wild card. PS...do you HONESTLY care if they reach 81 or 82 wins? As a said, my goal is 84 wins and a winning season. I think it's significant that the Brewers have their first winning season since Bush Sr.? That's a positive that will easily spill over into the next season. Let's remember that all I did in this thread was show MY race standings (to a winning season). I didn't challenge anyone; I didn't try to squash anyone's hopes of a wildcard. I will continue to update that standings but no more of this stuff. Where's the "beating a dead horse" picture when you need one?

Russ, They're only 5 out of the Wild Card. Live a little! Dream the big dream!! With 4 teams inside 1 game of the wildcard race, I'd rather have realistic goals.

... and the Brewers inch one game closer in the race: W L GB Winning Rec. 82 80 --- Brewers 60 62 4.0

Has Yost ever made a managing decision that worked?

Magruder is a joke.

Why would Miller do that? Like getting to 3rd with 2 outs is even neccessary. BOOO. The Brewers just got more runs against Clemens than ANY other team this year. And Sheets gave up 10 Earned Runs his last outing. Wierd year.

I love watching Branyan's patience. He'll always take the walk if you give it to him.