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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I thought they use an exponent of 1.82 now instead of 2. As the bp article I linked to explains, James later changed the 2 exponent to 1.82. That article outlines a couple other equations that can be used and I know of a few others myself. I just use the basic one since the difference for a team over the course of a year isn't very different anyway.
  2. rluzinski
    Also, since what's "good" or "great" OBP and SLG is heavily dependant on the poistion the player plays, you have to take that into consideration. I use this link to keep track of current averages on position. League Positional Batting Averages
  3. rluzinski
    If he tried to cut down on his K's he wouldn't walk as much and may not find as good of pitches to hit. His OBP and SLG would likely suffer. While K's are worse than other outs, on average the difference is very small.
  4. rluzinski
    Although, they do have Hart. Do they still ahve another Hart in the minors? They can call him up and have TWO Harts! They'll be unstopable! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/happy.gif
  5. rluzinski
    If the Crew takes the Astros, they are back in the wild card race. This statement is 100% true. Pure fantasy. If the Crew "takes" Houston in the form of winning 3 of 4, they will still have FIVE teams ahead of them and still be probably 5 games back. They'll raise their chances from .78% to about .82% 100% correct? Did I miss the sarcasm?
  6. rluzinski
    heck, if we were tied with 5 times for the lead, the realists here would still say 'no chance' What the realists do is OBJECTIVELY assess the realistic chances of post season play, no matter what the circumstances are. anyway, I am sure the best we could hope for in 5 days is to be 4 1/2 behind THREE teams (houston/wash/phil); so let us hope for that Because Washington is playing Phili now and the Mets this weekend, is it even physically possible to be 4.5 back and in sole posession of 3rd place in the W.C. standings?
  7. rluzinski
    ... so I think the year is pretty much done ... however, if we can win tomorrow and win 3 of 4 from Houston, I will think again It's really not going to end anytime soon, huh? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Houston 64 55 --- Washington 63 55 0.5 Phil 63 56 1.0 Florida 61 57 2.5 New York 60 58 3.5 Chicago 58 62 6.5 Milwaukee 58 62 6.5 Many seem to still perceive that we somehow control our own destiny in the wildcard race. That couldn't be further from the truth. Beating up on Houston will only allow Washington or Phili to take the lead (they play each other in 3 games over the next 2 days; someone has to win). I'd rather just focus on realistic goals myself, like .500
  8. rluzinski
    If the Crew takes the Astros, they are back in the wild card race. ????????????????????????????????????? Is it reall too much to ask that a statement like the above's should have to backed up by SOMETHING?
  9. rluzinski
    Yeh, it would be nice to win a series.
  10. rluzinski
    Win Expectancy Finder Fun to play with.... um.. that guy uses this to make those Brewer charts. Help me out here!
  11. rluzinski
    Winning run at the plate..... http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  12. rluzinski
    Ack, he hit that hard but right at Jenkins. I'll take it!
  13. rluzinski
    And I was just thinking that it had been awhile since Weeks made a bad play.
  14. rluzinski
    Turnbow doesn't have many 1-2-3 innings.
  15. rluzinski
    Why does Magruder HAVE to bat every game?
  16. rluzinski
    But it sure looked like he had at least another good inning in him, at least to me. And that's exactly my point. I'd trade an inning of VIC for a pinch batter with a runner on. I just don't see the difference between Vic and the bullpen as being worth an AB there.
  17. rluzinski
    Our lefty specialist specialises in walks. He has great stuff but what worth IS a pitcher who can't locate pitches?
  18. rluzinski
    I'm sure Kreskin or Jeane Dixon would have pulled Vic, but there was no reason to PH for him at that point. He looked to be pretty much in control to me. How much better is Vic than out bullpen, ESPECIALLY in Coors? And it doesn't take a phychic to predict that Vic wasn't going to throw a complete game.
  19. rluzinski
    Sor, once again a Brewer pitcher is called on to hit for himself late in a game with runners on and fails. He then proceeds to get lit up the next inning and get's pulled. Am I the only one who thinks you pull your starter not named Ben in that istuation?
  20. rluzinski
    So, they interview Maddux about pitching to Helton and he says, "he still will make an out 3 out of 5 times here, so you just pitch to him. Walks will just kill you in Coors." Bill says, "That's exactly what I'm saying, if you walk him, so be it. Don't let Helton beat you." Bill is a MORON.
  21. rluzinski
    Umpire: "Boom, your gone" Yost was mad that the home plate ump didn't ask for help on Hall's half swing, I think. Hall was making his childish little faces, as usual.
  22. rluzinski
    There goes Ned showing heart again. That seals the win!
  23. rluzinski
    Yankee hating is getting really old.... Glad to see someone is sicking up for the poor Yankee underdogs. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/grin.gif
  24. rluzinski
    Would Yost STOP trying to justify his existance by calling HIT AND RUNS. Hit and Runs are stupid. They make a batter swing and the runner get's a bad break many times. O look; it just cost the Brewers a run.
  25. rluzinski
    One of the most simple useful statstical equations you can use in baseball is the "Pythagorean Theorem." Developed by Bill James, it is a way to coorelate runs scored and runs given up to a team's winning %. In it's simplest form: RS^2 Winning % = ------------- (RS^2 + RA^2) RS = Runs Scored RA = Runs Against The Pythagorean Theorem can be used to justify the "10 Run Rule" which says that adding 10 runs over the course of a season adds 1 win: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/pythagorean.jpg While obviously not an exact number (The difference between RS and RA affect the value of 10 runs), it's an excellant estimation. Related Links: Revisiting the Pythagorean Theorem Google Search More to Come!
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