rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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Maybe RR forgot or something? I look forward the CRA-ZAY explanation he gives in the post game interview. Probably something like this: "Well, in a close game, you really gatta have your ace out there. But when Prince pushed the lead to 2, we thought Hawkins gave us the best chance to win."
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If anyone is curious about how a starting pitcher generally tires the more times he goes through the lineup, check this out: http://www.baseball-refer...=p&year=2010&lg=NL#times
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I'm starting to wonder if Brewer fans have too crazy an expectation for Greinke. He had a preseason ZiPS projection of 3.23. He just gave up 3 runs in 7 innings (3.86 ERA). 1o strikes and 1 walk. That is a solid outing. Opps, RR let's Greinke lead off to get one more inning out of him. Not smart at all. If Greinke is a true 3.4 ERA pitcher, he's high 3's after three times through the lineup, easy. There are at least a couple of Brewer reliever who are better than that. With the day off tomorrow, even if Greinke wasn't batting this inning, he probably should have been yanked.
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You mean, don't take the bat off your shoulder and hope for a walk?
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Teams know that even bad hitter will hurt you enough if you fill the bases for them beforehand.
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His results have been a complete bust. All his peripheral stats (even this year) point to him being an excellent pitcher. 3 run homers instead of solo shots and 4 hits in a row instead of scattering them over 4 innings, etc. I think his luck will even out and he'll be a stud. I really hope you're right, but this has been his 5th start....all of which have had the same thing happen. Either 3 run shots or 5 hits in an inning or something. That sure seems like a huge amount of bad luck for one guy. 5 starts is nothing. He's showing no signs of injury so I'm not worried at all.
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Does Melvin secretly love good hitting starting pitchers?
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I'm already over the Gomez batting 2nd fiasco. If Morgan gets 95% of the starts against righties, I will be over Kotsay as well.
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So is Carl Crawford. What's the point? Plush is out, Gomez is struggling. He is doing just fine for a fill in if you ask me. He is not good. That's the point. He shouldn't be playing as much as he is. Gomez and Kotsay are about the same offensively with Gomez being far far superior defensively. If you want to it Gomez thats fine, I get it. But Boggs should be playing in those cases. Having an aging vet who doesn't play good D at one of the premier defensive positions is a bad idea. Its not that RRR doesnt have options. Gomez and Boggs are both better options. Without looking, I am guessing that Kotsay's bat again a righty projects to be better than Gomez.. I also am guessing that Gomez's defense more than makes up for that. Boggs should be starting, IMO.
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So is Carl Crawford. What's the point? Crawford has done well within the last half decade? He is doing just fine for a fill in if you ask me. If he was a backup catcher or SS, perhaps.
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Kotsay's OBP now is below .340. His SLG is below .300. That is all.
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ROS ZIPS Projections: BAOBPSLGOPSWeeks.259.356.440.796Hart.273.329.483.812Braun.296.360.535.895Fielder.274.394.528.922 Have the Brewers ever had a better 1 through 4 in the lineup?
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So, what do you call two sweeps in a row? Has to be something witty to call it. Crazy to think a win today and 2-3 this weekend from SF would put the Brewers at 5 games over, going into that Cincinnati series. You and I both know that hot and cold streaks are largely random. The guy has put up a .244/.340/.300/.640 this year and .253/.315/.368/.683 since 2007. You can't let a bat like that sit. Seriously though, if RR thinks Boggs has less value than Kotsay, why is he even on the team? How is Boggs even in professional baseball?
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Roenicke wants me to think he's an idiot (Kotsay in CF)
rluzinski replied to endaround's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
About 8 years ago, I was arguing that the differences between a below average and good defender was pretty small. About 7 years ago, I realized how wrong I was. -
To your final point, do the SABR stats take into account correlation among players? i.e. the Brewers have a lot of high-SLG players, so it would seem logical that the addition of a high-OBP player would have greater positive effect for them than the same player may have if added to a team made up of low-SLG/high-OBP players. You can run a simulation in Excel to test those kind of theories. Putting a high OBP, low SLG player front of a higher SLG player is indeed better but the effects are very small. Of course, Kotsay isn't a high OBP player at this point in his career. His current line is .244/.340 .300/.640 and I would STILL take the under on that .340 OBP (I would take the over on the SLG, though).
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See, this is exactly the issue. Your argument is fatally flawed. You are comparing a strikeout vs. a ball-in-play with an unknown outcome. wOBA already KNOWS the outcome of every AB. It's already capturing whatever advantage the contact hitter enjoys over the power hitter who strikes out a lot. If we are trying to project the value of prospects, K rate is very important. If we are trying to compare the value of two batting lines, K rate is largely irrelevant.
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Roenicke wants me to think he's an idiot (Kotsay in CF)
rluzinski replied to endaround's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
From DPR's post game press conference last night. I wish I could just write it off as a manager just talking but his actions to this point say otherwise.A manager trying to chase a batter's hot and cold streaks.... awesome. have to wonder about his ability to read talent at all It's one thing to have an opinion. It's another when reality has to beat the crap out of you for a month and half before you even consider the possibility that you might have been wrong. It seems that everything RR's gut has told him has been wrong. -
Brewer 2011 Base Running, Quantified
rluzinski replied to rluzinski's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
To be clear, UBR does not include stolen bases. That sucks since all SB and CS are not created equal. -
Sorry, working through the in game thread but yes, you would be wrong. Even with his rough start, he projects to be a top end #2. I feel bad for Dillard. His stuff looks pretty good.
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Just saw this. He had an OK game I guess.
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It took longer than expected but it's nice to finally see the two worst hitters batting 7th and 8th.
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And all of them destroyed!
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Could anyone else agree that when you only have 340 games worth of data over a four year period that any projections you make off of that data will have a huge standard deviation? Of course I can agree with that. Statistically, the limited amount of data forces you to regress more to the mean. We are less sure that the data represents his true talent level because of limited sample, so we assume he's closer to average. The little bit he HAS played in the last few years has been bad and then we have to adjust for him being 35 years old, so that's why his projection is as bad as it is. He has roughly the same odds of being better or worse than that projection. Kotsay has not been our problem this year. I'm obviously far more concerned about the deficiencies of the starters; There is only so much damage a guy can do as a spot starter/pinch hitter. The amount of complaining that you hear about Kotsay isn't because people think he's single-handedly destroying the Brewers this eyar. Some just can't believe that the Brewers would play $800k plus incentives for such a poorly projected player and the way he's being used (batting second, playing CF on occasion) just adds fuel to the fire. He has filled his role fairly well I would have to disagree with that. Offensively, it's tempting to look at just his .354 OBP and suggest that he's been a plus but his .314 SLG negates the OBP and then some. Just remember that 10 points of SLG is equal to roughly 17 points of OBP. A player with the line of .256/.300/.344. would roughly have the same value of what Kotsay has done.
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Fangraph's wOBA takes into accounts SB and CS. It does not take into account base advancement on hits but you'll have to believe me when I say that it is relatively minor, compared to everything else. For a time, Pierre was identifiably the best base runner in the league and it resulted in only a few net runs. Gomez will also hit into less double plays on infield groundballs. I don't know this to be true for a fact but I suspect it is also a minor component of his value. That is probably because if you are hitting a lot of infield groundballs, you are probably not a very valuable hitter to begin with (there are exceptions of course). There are a lot of nuances to the value of baseball players. I know there exists much more sophisticated projection systems that takes into account hit types (groundball/flyball tendencies), speed and other things. I suspect that they are incrementally better but we are talking about a small difference. The basic batting events, when weighted correctly, capture the vast majority of the value of a batter's offensive performance. For a messageboard comparison of bench players, wOBA does just fine, IMO.
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I think that is an excellent question. I would assume that the average bench player is right around replacement level. Last year, subs put up a combined .222/.294/.342/.636 line, so they obviously don't hit well. Of course, the required offensive production needed to be replacement level is dependent on what position you play and how well you play it. A utility infielder or backup catcher that plays average defense can get away with hitting very poorly, while a corner outfielder/1B has to be able to hit significantly better. A strict pinchhitter has the highest threshold. .260/.320/.365 for backup corner OFer that plays average defense is probably close to average but I'll see if I can find out for sure.