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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I don't think that's it in this case. A significant segment of sports fans reject the notion of luck playing any significant role in player performance and game results. I think there are two reasons for this. First, they don't fully appreciate the concept of binomial uncertainty (statistical "luck") and what role it plays in sports. They understand that if we flip a coin 10 times, we don't always expect to get 5 heads. They don't necessarily understand how that applies to a baseball game, however. Second, they don't want to believe that the result of a sporting event is not always dictated by just the skill of the players involved. It's not as much to fun to have to admit that luck may have played a role in your favorite team winning or losing. So they mold their reality to fit their preferences.
  2. rluzinski
    No, I'm doing no such thing, what I'm proposing is that we don't take a websites projections as factual data and cut a player because a website says that he will not perform well over the remainder of the season.Factual data? Are you suggesting that projections can't perfectly predict the future? Of course they can't. They are called projections, not prognostications. Our best guess of future performance. They predict future performance a hell of a lot better than just looking at 150 AB from the current season, which is what you are suggesting we do. The rest-of-season ZiPS projections takes that performance into account PLUS previous season performances. That alone should be enough to convince you to EXPECT them to be a better predictor of future performance. I'm not sure what's up with you recently.
  3. rluzinski
    24 IP of relief work? On a personal level, I'm glad he has a nice ERA but there's nothing about his numbers that suggest anything exciting is going on.
  4. rluzinski
    K% is a big flaw in wOBA - sorry, but Adam Dunn did not have more offensive value than Joe Mauer last year when he struck out 3.5 times as often (not to mention Mauer had an avg over .060 higher).Dunn's and Mauer's 2010 performances are a perfect example of how poor baseball fans can be at judging the relative value of some types of players. You say that wOBA has a large flaw with regard to K's and batting average but provide not a shed of evidence to support that opinion. I suspect you aren't even familiar with the methodology used to formulate wOBA. You don't agree with its output for some players, so it's obviously flawed. That takes a lot of hubris. If you want to have an honest discussion on the topic, let me know. Otherwise, I'm not going to spend 30 minutes writing up something that you will dismiss without reading. Baseball dogma is alive and well.
  5. rluzinski
    My original post was in response to someone saying Betancourt and Punto were the same player offensively (or something to that effect) simply because their wOBA were close. wOBA is a fine stat, but just like any other stat, it has flaws - I would never use it as a stand alone metric when comparing 2 players overall worth. I mean David Ortiz and his K rate of 28% had the same wOBA as Ryan Braun and Prince last year and guys like Aubrey Huff and Luke Scott had higher wOBA's............ like I said, it's a fine stat and all, it does have value - but to try and say two players have equal offensive value because they have similar wOBA's is a wee bit foolish in my most humble opinion. wOBA properly identifies that a strikeout is basically equal to a ball-in-play out in an average situation. You aren't.
  6. rluzinski
    100 AB. "So we value players based on projections from a website now rather than look at the numbers that they have actually put up?Awesome" You are proposing we ignore the thousands of AB Kotsay has had prior to 2011 and instead use his 100 AB from this year to "value" his worth. That leads to all kinds of fun results. Kotsay has a higher OBP than Pujols right now. Do you value his ability to get on base more? The start of a new year should not be used as an excuse to wipe the slate clean in terms of valuing player skill. Projections take into account prior seasons. Message board analysis often does not.
  7. rluzinski
    We don't need to use a single state though, that is the point - NO stat is perfect. Under no circumstances should you look at a single stat when trying to compare 2 players and make a full assessment............. not trying to be a jerk, but it's just silly. Perhaps I misunderstood, you accused a poster of cherry picking. Is that because he only pointed out that their batting was roughly equal or because you don't think wOBA properly measures batting worth? When I'm talking batting ability, projected wOBA or any other linear weights based metric is all I really want. Whether the player get's his value from a high BA, lot's of power, walking or any combination, it all comes down to runs produced. Unless someone wants to run custom linear weights for the Brewers' offense, I think that is about as "full assessment" as I expect here.
  8. rluzinski
    The guy hit .251/.347/.520 in a full season in 2009. His current ZiPS rest of season projection is .253/.336/.516. Unless Branyan's back is severely restricting him right now, there's no way he isn't a significant upgrade over several current Brewer bench players. If he in fact could be had for league minimum, I can't see any reason why Melvin shouldn't see if he can get him. I'm interested to hear your reasons.
  9. rluzinski
    He is the pitcher who is doing the best atm, he is not the unquestioned ace of the staff. Capuano is.
  10. rluzinski
    Lot's of interesting splits in May. There's a reason why we don't talk about this stuff as much in September; things tend to even out by the end of the year.
  11. rluzinski
    I would say that it is miles better than OPS. wOBA is very roughly proportional to 1.7OBP x SLG, so you can see how bad OPS undervalues OBP.
  12. rluzinski
    When you pick a single statistic and try to say players are equal because that statistic shows they are equal - it's cherry picking. wOBA takes into account all major batting events.
  13. rluzinski
    UZR based off of 18 games? (which makes a -1 both bad and meaningless) "Superb" at the plate with a .305 SLG? I can only guess you are being less than objective about Kotsay because I think you know better. I agree that he has had a solid OBP so far but I think we both know it's going nowhere but down. What would you put the over/under at for his season OBP? Branyan's offensive projections crushes Kotsay's (which isn't saying much). I see he Branyan hasn't played anything but 1B over the last couple of years. I wonder if we can still play a passable corner OF spot.
  14. rluzinski
    I think the whole argument that the batting order matters little over the course of a season in terms of runs is extremely flawed. I love stats and see tremendous value in the incorporation of advanced statistics. However, unless you actually play out entire seasons - with human beings - batting in different spots, you will never truly know the impact of the construction of a lineup. Do you realize that many of batting order studies have looked at human beings who batted in different spots during the course of playing an actual season? There have been batting order studies based off of simulations and ones based off of historical data. There is little statistical evidence to show the significant effects that many presume as fact. Lack of statistical evidence doesn't prove non-existence but what evidence can you provide to support existence?
  15. rluzinski
    That is by far the most likely explanation.
  16. rluzinski
    While Prince's powerful strike rainbowed its way to the deepest part of the second deck, I silently thrust both fists into the air as my wife slept on the couch behind me. THAT was fun.
  17. rluzinski
    I'm sure the explanation given in the post game interview will be entertaining.
  18. rluzinski
    This offense has been SO bad lately. They are nothing special but they shouldn't be this bad.
  19. rluzinski
    If Hart bats second, sure! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif 3-1 road trip with 11 Brewer runs scored in those 4 games?
  20. rluzinski
    I really wish that stat had never been created. WAR is useless. It uses defensive metrics that are pretty universally accepted as not accurate in the sample size it uses. I certainly wouldn't be looking at the defensive (UZR) portion of any player's 2011 WAR at this point. The option is there to just look at the offensive and positional adjustment portion of WAR. But to be fair, he was referring to Kotsay's numbers since 2004. He wasn't always a starter during that time but he played in 638 games since 2005 and his UZR/Defensive WAR has been negative every year: http://www.fangraphs.com/...d=1042&position=OF#value I appreciate your skepticism of UZR. I'd be fine if its output was simply Great/good/average/mediocre/bad instead of this silly decimal stuff. I'd be fine if people mostly ignored a single season UZR. But Kotsay just hasn't been good for a long time.
  21. rluzinski
    For what they are worth, rest of season ZiPS projections for Betancourt and Counsell: Betancourt: .262/.291/.398, .301 wOBA Counsell: .257/.327/.341, .304 wOBA That suggests they are basically equal offensively. With Counsell being the superior defender, he should be starting against righties as often as his body allows. And I agree, if he can't handle 2 starts a week, he's not good enough to justify holding onto, IMO.
  22. rluzinski
    Runner at third, no outs and a ground ball, the runner at third better be pretty sure he can score to make it worth it. Assuming the groundball would otherwise result in an out at first, teams still score at least one run about 2/3rds of the time if the runner stays put. To be fair, had Braun been safe, that would have been a run AND a no out made at first, so it get's complicated. At this point, all we can really do is keep track of how well things turned out. It's a much more difficult to answer whether the strategy was sound before-the-fact.
  23. rluzinski
    This really sounds like a non-issue to me. Wolf wants to throw HIS pitch; it's nothing personal towards Lucroy. Bores the hell out of us fans but...
  24. rluzinski
    Well, another out at the plate last night on a ground ball. Braun was going on contact, as is RR's MO. This aggressiveness on the base paths continues to not work.
  25. rluzinski
    I really can't stand this guy. RR is completely right that the Brewer's early struggles on the road does not predict future struggles. Haudricourt suggesting that 25% of the season proves otherwise shows a terrible understanding of baseball in general. The Brewers are currently 8-16 on the road. What should they be? 11-13? But yeh, his comments about the pros and cons of Hart batting 2nd are concerning to say the least. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
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