rluzinski

I don't care about what MLEs, ZiPS, or PECOTA project a player's final line to be. I cancelled my subscription to BP a long time ago when I realized that baseball statisticians basically measure the result and yet it treat like it's the cause, and I went more scouting orientated with BA. See BABIP, FIP, xFIP, PAP, etc... it's all the same backwards analysis treating the effect like it's the cause... his BABIP is too high, he's going to regress to mean! Well no kidding, what MLB player produces at a constant rate over the course of an entire 162 game season? Essentially what's being said is he's been really hot and he's going to cool down. Shocking insight... or pitchers who are giving more runs than normal... his BABIP is too high so he's unlucky! No, he's pitched like garbage and has been getting hit hard, there's a difference between poor performance(which is usually poor pitch location) and being unlucky. Cause and effect has been turned completely on it's head... thank goodness pitchfx came around on the pitching side, but we still lose the context of the pitch which makes it's statistically difficult to quantify location. However it's much more sound analysis than FIP or xFIP. I share your skepticism of MLE's, as they have not not done a very good job at predicting future performance (it's been tested). PAP appears to not have any real value as well (it's been tested). The rest of that reads as one long, uniformed rant. You seem to be suggesting that no metrics have never been tested for their level of ability to predict future performance. Like people just make up stuff and no one ever tried to quantify their value? And your continued suggestion that BABIP correlated 100% to a pitcher's performance is illogical as well. If you really know about pitch f/x you would see it backs that up. A perfect pitch still can get hard and a bad one can result in a pop up. Is that really a hard sell? And then when you include the effects good or bad defense can have... You just seem so emotionally invested in your current views of baseball that there's really no sense in debating it on a public forum. If you have any interest in having your views challenged, I can point you to dozens of studies.

What's the over/under for total squeeze attempts for the season? 10? 12?

Kotsay was hot, damnit. He had not one, but TWO hits the previous game! How could you possibly not start him in CF and bat him 2nd for a second consecutive game? It's just too hilarious for me to get upset anymore.

He has called 3 squeeze plays (I think?) over the hundreds of times it was possible, and they have all worked. Are you really going to criticize this? I am criticizing the strategy, not the results. And the fact that is was successful 3 out of 3 times is not very strong evidence that it was the correct call (not very strong evidence of anything when you are talking about three anything). The break even point is going to be very high anyway. With the bases loaded and 1 out, common sense tells you the other team scores a run well over half the time. If RR estimated that each of his attempts would be successful around 75% of the time, they were probably decent calls. I just don't think the success rate was that high. I think Running Ron likes to play that way so he he does. I think most agree that it is more entertaining, sure. Is that what we were talking about?

The issue with Betancourt has been the same before he even played an inning for the Brewers. He overall production projects to be SO bad that he's a marginal major league bench player, yet he was penciled in to start for the Brewers. Ironically, Betancourt has actually performed even worse than his projections suggested. In contrast, Gomez is below average but above replacement levell (almost completely because of his defense). We aren't demanding above average at every position. I don't think even average at every position is a realistic expectation. But when there are minor leaguers and major league bench players that project to be better than your starting major league SS, there are problems.

It just seems like RR is trying to push his brand of baseball, even if the situation screams to play straight up power baseball. Just last night, Morgan sacrificing in front of a Braun blast, Lucroy sacrificing with the pitcher up next (was that a RR call?), yet another safety squeeze. Just let them play already. The sacrifices in front of Braun and Fielder are really getting to me. You have the two most prolific power hitters in baseball and you play small ball in front of them? And the Brewers seem to be on pace to shatter the world record for outs at home this year.

Point taken, but I think Counsell has maintained a rather high rate of BB due to the fact that his overall swing rate is lower than average, while his swing and miss rate is quite low. I would think that guys who swing less would walk more, so they do play a part in the equation- however, I still would place most of the blame on the pitchers inability to throw strikes. Obviously, both the hitter and pitcher play some role in drawing walks, but because there are so many different factors it's impossible to quantify a 'ratio of responsibility'. At any rate, these sorts of arguments are why I love baseball. Walk rate is not simply inversely proportional to swing rate. It just isn't. Obviously, both the hitter and pitcher play some role in drawing walks, but because there are so many different factors it's impossible to quantify a 'ratio of responsibility It's impossible to perfectly quantify it but there are numerous statistical tools to estimate it. Not surprisingly, the batter and pitcher both play a huge role in determining walk rates. Most people stopped believing what you believe about 20 years ago.

No, a thousand times no. It almost never pays to IBB either Fielder or Braun.I really don't like using baseball cliches as evidence for a particular strategy (e.g. don't get beat by the best hitter!) Barry Bonds was the greatest hitter ever, had little protection when he was hitting his best, managers walked him far too often and they STILL pitched to him often enough to let him get over 200 HRS in a 4 year span.

Am I the only one who thinks the Brewers will mostly likely not sign Fielder, Greinke OR Marcum?

It may end up being a slight discount for some of the years if he keeps performing. Of course, if Braun's production drops off dramatically in 2013, this will deal will look like a huge overpay. You have to judge a deal based on average expected performance over the life of the contract, not what's possible. Obviously, projections are somewhat subjective but we should expect age to start catching up with Braun during his contract.

Braun's first deal certainly had a home town discount. I don't think the second one did, though.

The Brewers could afford Fielder now. They would just have the contract more backloaded towards 2014-2017. I issue is that they probably don't WANT to sign Prince for what he wants.

So you're saying that how a hitter is feeling at the plate has absolutely NOTHING to do with his next at bat? On pure math, sure that's absolutely true, but this isn't math. These are people. And how they're feeling, confidence levels, etc, DO have an effect. Are you suggesting that the manager should ask the batter if he feels like he's going to perform better than average? Do you really think the answer will provide useful information to the manager? I just think that saying that you absolutely NEVER walk the bases loaded is not a factual statement. I specifically didn't mention that situation because my Mamma told me to never say never. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I will say that the facts suggest it's generally a bad idea.

That was fun!

Well, he's very bad at defense and base running and VERY good at hitting.

WOWWWWW.

I'm sorry but I completely disagree with this.1 - technically that's true, one at bat doesn't really mean much for the others, HOWEVER, it can mean that a guy is seeing the ball well or seeing it poorly (take Prince now and Casey now as examples). He just as easily could have struck out or hit a HR but he had been hitting it well all night and has a very high average on the season as well, not to mention a PH was on deck. It CAN mean lot's of things, but on average, it means nothing. That's what the facts say.

Well, at least it's getting interesting.

1. It shouldn't surprise you that people have looked at average performances after a good start to a game. A guy with 3 hits is not expected to hit any better than his normal expectations. Hell, you can take a guy who's been hot for a week and it really tells you nothing. Pretty much a myth. 2. Intentionally walking the bases loaded is generally very bad because of the whole walk scores a run thing.

Hey, let's bring in Braddock when the game is essentially over. My goodness.

I would find it hard to believe that all the plays he hasn't made has only occurred in Brewer wins.

I don't think anybody is arguing that his defense doesn't stink. I think the poster that you quoted meant that Betancourt has embarrassed at SS to the point of 3 errors every other game and about 30-40 errors total like so many people (posters and professional writers) made it sound like he was going to do. (of course, this is hyperbole as nobody actually said that.) Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I had read his comment. As did I. He was saying that the mythical group of people who claimed Betancourt makes a fool of himself on a daily basis at SS was wrong.

I think the players learn to temper their highs and lows out of necessity. When a season is 162 games long, you kind of have to. In contrast, many fans WANT to ride the emotional roller coaster of a 162 game season. That's the fun of it all. As I get older, I find myself enjoying baseball more when I try to remain a little more level headed (no more waking up in the morning and immediately thinking about last night's tough loss). Vegas gives the Brewers about a 2 in 3 chance of winning tonight, so I will remain cautiously optimistic about game 1.

Any above average team are legit playoff contenders. I believe the Brewer qualify. The Cardinals are probably not a true 95 win team, so it should be an interesting race. The bullpen is anchored by a top of the line closer. I don't think I've ever heard Axford described like that before. I suspect he won't even be the closer by the end of the year. Betancourt hasn't embarrassed at SS as many predicted he would. Among the worst UZR/150 rates in the league for a SS. He also has 8 errors. He's been bad as expected defensively.

Of course, but unless we have actual evidence, it's just blind speculation. Of instance, the Brewers are currently 402 o this road trip. I think it's because they've been playing a lot more confident lately. I mean, you can see it in their eyes!