rluzinski

I was responding to a comment that Yo giving up no runs was why he was allowed to pitch. In contrast, I did not use Yo making an out as evidence that letting him bat was a bad move. I made my comment before he finished his AB. For that reason, your comment does not seem to be relevant.I think his comment is perfectly relevant. You need to weigh the odds of Counsell getting a hit over Gallardo vs the odds Gallardo vs whoever else in the Brewers bullpen giving up a run or not. And also taking into account that it was only the top of the 6th inning, and that the Brewers had a one run lead, with only one out, and Rickie Weeks on deck. There are a number of factors. I think sticking with Gallardo was the right decision and it proved to work.No his comment was not relevant. I was pointing out that Gallardo not giving up a run in an inning was no special accomplishment. You have to look at the difference between what Gallardo is expected to do vs. a reliever. The same is true for a batter, so why would it be relevant that most AB end in an out? And of course you have to factor all that in. The studies I've read do just that. I'm not just going by gut here. You seem to understand all the factors that go into the question but you aren't appreciating that a SP's projected performance is heavily dependent on how many times he's gone through the order. It's all covered in a book called "The Book: Playing the Percentages of Baseball." If you are interested, you can basically read it on Amazon's website. OK, no more on this subject for me.

You realize that the most likely outcomein an inning for even a bad pitcher is zero runs, don't you? That's kind of the point. Wow, Hart destroyed that pitch and gets a triple. It's nice to not have a terrible batter in the two hole, huh? And you realize the outcome in an at-bat for even a great hitter is an out, don't you?I was responding to a comment that Yo giving up no runs was why he was allowed to pitch. In contrast, I did not use Yo making an out as evidence that letting him bat was a bad move. I made my comment before he finished his AB. For that reason, your comment does not seem to be relevant.

You realize that the most likely outcomein an inning for even a bad pitcher is zero runs, don't you? That's kind of the point. Wow, Hart destroyed that pitch and gets a triple. It's nice to not have a terrible batter in the two hole, huh?

Goodness. This does not even pass the common sense test. It isn't even close. If it was, Gallardo would be pinch hitting all the time.Let's look it it this way...which guy from the bullpen would you trust over Yo for another inning? Starting pitcher performance degrades significantly over the course of a game. That's not my opinion, it been proven statistically. If Yo is a true 3.8 ERA pitcher on average, he's in the 4's after 100 pitches. I will gladly take that 10% extra chance of a non-out for 1 inning of Yo at 100 pitches.

Yo is nice hitting PITCHER. And Boggs is a terrible hitting fielder. They balance out. Goodness. This does not even pass the common sense test. It isn't even close. If it was, Gallardo would be pinch hitting all the time.

Both managers are looking silly this inning.

Arguably the best hitter available. Yo is nice hitting PITCHER.

That's why intentionally walking the bases loaded is pretty much always a losing strategy.

Why the hell is Yo up here? So he can MAYBE pitch one more inning? Stupid.

I'm sure you are correct to some degree. It appears that runners on third aren't trying to advance on every groundball, like they were earlier in the season... or I'm completely wrong on that. Two recent safety squeezes recently, I believe.

It wasn't probable that the Brewers would make the playoffs before the season started. What was it, basically a 3 in 1 shot?

The guy has 65 AB at home. A very bad hitter could put up those kind of numbers over such a short period of time. Is he going to finish the season with a .250 OBP? Very doubtful. .280 is probably a reasonable over/under.

You can only see so much in Spring Training. Everybody on the team has different instincts, speed, acceleration, and angles around the bases, so there isn't really a set "break even" point that works for everybody at all times. I didn't suggest that there was a set breakeven point that works for each batter and for each situation. I don't think anyone would think that. And I'm not really worried about RR's ability to judge individual base running skills. I am more concerned about the possibility of him not having a firm grasp on how to estimate the break even points. For those not familar the concept of the base advancement break even point, its the odds at which, for the specific situation, the run value of an attempted advancement is equal to the run value of not attempting. Let's look at the sac fly with 2 out scenario. In 2010, teams scored .37 runs with a runner at 3rd and 2 out. They scored .1 runs with no one on and 2 out. So in a perfectly average situation, we are looking at these expected run values: Just after flyout: .37 runs Successful sac fly: 1+.1 = 1.1 runs Out at home: 0 runs In that case, the BE point is 1.1/.37 = ~3:1 or 25%. That means the runner only has to be safe 25% of the time to make the send as valuable as a no send. Then you have to consider the skill of the base runner to determine if he can beat that breakeven point. Of course, that's assuming everything is average. In reality, that pre-advance run expectancy is highly dependent on the pitcher in the game and the upcoming batters. You have the heart of the order up against a scrub pitcher and your break point even is going to be higher. Ace against your pitcher? You could out at home 85% of the time and it still might be the right move. These are the kinds of things a 3B couch needs to consider BEFORE he decides whether to send a runner. "However, it's very difficult to know where that line is until you cross it. Carlos Gomez has crossed the line. Many times. There have been a few too many guys thrown out by 10 feet at home plate." The "out by 10 feet" situations aside, a manager has to be careful about looking at the outcome of his strategies too much, too early. There is just too much uncertainty about the outcome and not enough observation points. If RR thought his strategies were correct before the season started, he shouldn't change his mind on a handful of plays. Of course, many managers are very outcome driven, since there performance is measured by it.

"Greinke has yet to prove his worth" This is a very interesting thread but no player has had the chance to prove anything yet.

Yes, it seemed like the Brewer runners at 3B were trying for home on ANYTHING hit on the ground. We can argue about the theoretical break even point for attempting to take home in that situation but I find it hard to believe that it is 100%. I'm glad if RR has already adjusted how aggressive he wants his team to be on the basepaths but shouldn't he know the break even points before the season starts? He shouldn't be using the results of a few games to figure this stuff out. Then again, I believe the Brewer attempted another safety squeeze the other day, so perhaps Runnin' Ron is still chugging along.

I'm sure I'm in the minority but that's about as entertaining as a shutout can be. Brewer pitchers kept it close and the batters constantly got men on base but just couldn't deliver. Sometimes you just can't get that big hit. Better than being 1 hit, IMO.

Holy crap, Boggs pinch hitting for Gomez. Did Melvin finally have a chat with RR?

Sure enough, Dodgers put a CF in left and runs down a liner in the gap.

UGHHHHH

I was just making a fun little observation, I wasn't arguing anything about statistics and probabilities. Fair enough. I think you can add catcher interference then as a possible way?

Kuroda missing low on everything right now. Not nearly as sharp as he was.

Like I said, I don't expect the ump to get every call right but FIVE pitches in a row called strikes that pitch f/x shows as balls? No way. Funny - two things just happened that would've scored Braun from third after his "big" steal: an infield single and a balk It doesn't matter how many different ways a runners can score from 3rd than 2nd, it matters how often they happen. The numbers say, not very often. That said, Braun wasn't being held at 2B and the 3B didn't even try to cover the bad, so I can't complain about he attempt. It was basically a sure thing. Hart with a nice AB and hit it well but right at someone. Baseball can be really annoying at times.

Betancourt would be the first to go by far then.

Pitch f/x thought all of those called strikes were balls to Lucroy. EDIT: and the first two called strikes to Gomez. 5 in a row.

And Kuroda once again get the outside sinker.