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JJHardy7

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Everything posted by JJHardy7

  1. JJHardy7
    No, I think he would get a full season 162 game suspension. The one after that would be banned for life. That's what i thought. I think it is obvious nobody can say for sure what Braun will/is doing, but I would be pretty surprised if he is using now or starts using again. There simply is nothing for him to gain at this point by doing it.
  2. JJHardy7
    If Braun fails another test, he is banned from baseball? Is that true?
  3. JJHardy7
    Some players want to take the risk to get top dollar, while some would rather give up some potential in order to eliminate the risk. Either way is fine. If it's me, I'm accepting the extension for the guarantee. It's the same reason I buy insurance... risk transferal from myself to someone else. I understand this and agree on the risk aspect. Most players don't do this though. I just think signing the 2nd extension essentially 5 years before he had to was a very dumb business move for Braun if he was clean (not to mention deferring money). Pujols got a huge deal in 2012 and he was about the age Braun is when he signed it. I know I was a sucker that thought it was so awesome that a player actually enjoyed being a Brewer and liked the city of Milwaukee. Where are the examples of guys signing a 2nd extension ~ 5 years before they had to? In any sport?
  4. JJHardy7
    Reason for taking the extension when he did could be as simple as being able to put 105 mil in the bank without having to risk injury. He was locking in 20 mil per year for his 32-37 seasons, if everything goes well he wasn't going to get more than 25-30 mil for those years but maybe getting another year or two at the end of the contract. If you have two injury riddled seasons (like he just did, was hurt prior to suspension anyway) before FA he might not have gotten that much. He was able to lock in that he would never have to worry about money ever again. That's leaving potentially $25M - $50M by signing the deal he did and he deferred a piece of it as well. Don't get me wrong...I understand the guaranteed money and not risking injury. There just aren't that many guys that would sign 2 extensions like he did.
  5. JJHardy7
    To me it's too early to say this right now about Braun, there's like 5 years left on it, as I said before if he pops out two or three 280/340 30ish HR seasons along with a couple statistically similar years to last year I don't think it should be considered a disaster contract when you factor in the immense value they got at the beginning of the deal. I agree the Brewers saved $$$ on the first extension...I'm primarily worried about the 2nd extension that kicks in next year. All speculation on my part, but I believe Braun was cheating for a long time. I can maybe understand signing the first extension from his view point, but why the world would he sign the 2nd extension? How many times have guys come to the Brewers and we hold out hope that they will sign an extension just like that (only for them to leave for a lot more money)? Fielder, CC, Greinke (I know he was traded, but we would have extended him on team friendly deal), etc. IMO if Braun played out the first extension and was putting up those great numbers, he could have gone back to California and signed potentially the richest contract in the history of baseball. Why would he give that up? I don't care all that much that he did PEDs...I just wonder what Braun's camp was thinking when he signed the 2nd extension.
  6. JJHardy7
    I think it's painfully obvious that the Brewers need to tear down and retool. I really respect your opinion so it makes reading this so painful. I agree with it, but it still hurts to look back a few years ago and think of how much promise this organization had. Back to the drawing board...
  7. JJHardy7
    Bottom line, it isn't the worst contract for the Brewers and it won't hold this team back going forward. I know people's feelings are hurt by Braun, mine were a little bit too, but lets just hope he hits somewhat and other players around him step up as well. I have no issues with people disagreeing, but I'm not sure how it is 'bottom line' not the worst. Where does it rank for you? Is it in the Top 10? Again, I'm asking this honestly and not trying to come across as a jerk. If Braun was a free agent right now, what kind of contract do you think he would get?
  8. JJHardy7
    Also when considering it as 'worst ever' you have to factor in how underpaid he was prior to the PED issue, that helps balance the overpay at the end. I guess I just don't look at it this way. Right or wrong baseball has a system where players that play as well as Braun did get severely underpaid their first few years. Every good player is underpaid their first few years. I'm not in the camp where you pay for past performance. I understand that you have to add on a year or two for a player to sign an extension and often times deals look bad the last few years. I am more concerned that Braun hasn't even started his second extension.
  9. JJHardy7
    This thread is awesome. I don't think anyone missed me (heck I wouldn't), but I'll try to post more. Sorry in advance!
  10. JJHardy7
    I think they moved on to better drugs and masking agents. I think they are using more. Better pitching. It isn't like pitchers weren't using. Next time there is an expansion we will see the pitching talent thinned and runs go up. Fair enough. IMO I think the testing seems to be working since power numbers are down so much. I agree that guys are still pushing the envelope and are cheating. I don't agree though that it is better pitching though. I don't think better pitching changes the game as drastically as it has. I think MLB powers that be would probably want a little bit more scoring than they are currently getting.
  11. JJHardy7
    I just assume there are many many players still using. Most are just smart enough not to get caught. I think it is foolish to think the game is "cleaned up." There is just to much money to be made by cheating. Do you think they are using at the same rate? Home runs and power numbers are down pretty dramatically.
  12. JJHardy7
    Also, IMO just because most liked the deal at the time doesn't mean it was a good deal AFTER ITS ALL PLAYED OUT. Don't change my posts and then attempt to quote me. I get it...you disagree and that's fine. Again, what is Braun worth now? Answer that question. I think it is interesting that almost every Brewer contract is awful, terrible, waste of money, etc, etc...but for Braun...different story. Really? And I am not picking on this season only...it is early. Braun wasn't good last season. Fangraphs had his value last year as less than $6M. Braun's contract calls for $20M next year...some is deferred...it is still due to him. So if you look at it that way Braun is paid through 2031.
  13. JJHardy7
    catching WOAH SOLVDD viewtopic.php?f=82&t=6641
  14. JJHardy7
    What is Brewers payroll this year? Is Braun currently at 12%? His salary jumps $7M to $20M next year. If his salary is currently 12%, that means the current payroll is ~ $108.3M. Is that about right? That would mean if payroll increases 5% next year Braun would account for 17.6% next year. I am not sure if my assumptions are accurate. ESPN has it at $99M. http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/salaries/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers If that is right, Braun is 13% this year and would be 19.2% next year (assuming 5% increase to payroll).
  15. JJHardy7
    I'm not even going to bother going back to the day Braun's contract was signed and see if those objectors today were doing the same then. I think we all know the answer to that. I agree with that. I did wonder (not sure if I posted it...doubt it) why Braun would want to sign that 2nd extension years before he had to. Are there other players that have done this? I know it is somewhat common for young players to sign extensions to buy out a year or two of free agency, but I think what Braun did was very, very rare. I think most of us thought he really likes the organization, Milwaukee, etc. I'm not so sure that was really the case any more. Also, IMO just because most liked the deal at the time doesn't mean it was a good deal after it is all played out. I have a feeling Braun continually getting a pass and the benefit of the doubt will change at some point. I can't blame people for having some hope, but I just don't have it. Thanks for posting that article as well. That was a great read.
  16. JJHardy7
    I actually think you are overly emotional about the whole situation. It's Mark A's money, not mine. I'm emotionally detached from the revenue and expenses of the Milwaukee Brewers. As long as they are entertaining, I could care less about the characters on my favorite ballclubs. I'd personally give him a $100M bonus alone for his 2R HR in Game 162 of the 2008 season. Braun was grossly underpaid in accordance with his production from 2006-2012. So I don't really have a problem that he is overpaid in accordance with his production over the past couple of years. As it stands today, it's probably nearing a wash. Could it be a bad contract come 2020? Absolutely. But the worst contract ever? That's just emotional hyperbole. Jeffery Hammonds never gave the Brewers anything. As of RIGHT NOW, he's nearing a wash on value vs dollars paid. Ping me again in 2020. How much would you pay Braun right now for his current and future production? Would you give him that 5 year $105M deal (for future production...not for what he did in 2006-2012)? Braun's WAR last year was less than 1.0 (some as low as 0.3). It's not all that far off from Jeffery Hammonds actually. I don't know a ton about WAR, but to me if we signed Braun as a free agent the board would be going crazy about how poor he is playing and how much $$$ he is due.
  17. JJHardy7
    Perfect! Let's analyze it in 2020. I get the fun poke with this post. Well played. Let me put this a different way...would you take on Josh Hamilton (full contract) or stick with Braun? Let's assume in a Hamilton for Braun deal no team pays a dollar for the player they are giving up. So the the Brewers would save roughly $30M or so (I think that is a nice round number that is close, but I'm sure someone here would know more about that than I know). I'm not trying to play the emotional side that is easy...he totally and completely embarrassed himself and this franchise. I am saying he's not anywhere near worth the contract he currently has and it will only get worse.
  18. JJHardy7
    That is a very huge stretch to come to that conclusion. A lot of players have signed deals just like that even before Braun. Braun has had nagging injuries his whole career, of course he was eager to get extended. I'm not saying you are wrong and you would know more than I would...but how many players have signed 2 extensions with similar service time that Braun did with similar or more money? Also, Braun played in at least 150 games pre-suspension (besides rookie year when he was called up after season started). And this isn't just an April thing...he wasn't very good last year. I guess he is still somehow getting a pass from some Brewers fans for whatever reason.
  19. JJHardy7
    Braun's deal isn't hurting the Brewers. Sure it sucks and we knew it would when he signed it. The Brewers are never going to be able to buy enough players to win so money isn't holding us back from competing. I'm not sure I understand it. When it was signed, I don't think anyone thought it would suck. Most loved it. We didn't know he was cheating...and IMO that is why he was so willing to sign it. Regardless, so $20M per year of dead weight potentially won't hold this franchise back at all? He struggled last year and so far this year, but in regard to dead weight I'm thinking 2019 and 2020...I am guessing he will still be the highest paid player at that time or at least in the top 3. I'm not sure I understand how this doesn't significantly hurt the franchise.
  20. JJHardy7
    Absolutely could not care less about the PEDs and him "lying" and wish people would stop endlessly droning on about it, but yes those type of mega-contracts (even a relatively reasonable mega-contract like Braun's) usually do not work out unless the player ends up being HoF caliber. Why do you having lying in quotes? He very much did lie and I understand it can get old at times, but when small market team signs you to an unprecedented contract for the franchise and you act the way Braun did you aren't going to be very well liked. I do think though that if Braun performs at the high levels he did in the past all the PEDs talk would go away from Brewers fans as it has with other players in the league.
  21. JJHardy7
    To me it sounds more like a fan that has hurt feelings because he lied to them. No doubt there is a little of that, but his production is nowhere near justifying that contract. Maybe he plays closer to prior years than last year, but I personally think he will never make another all-star game. I feel like these nagging injuries he almost always has post PEDs suspension are going to eventually create a lot of stints on the DL. If he gives us the production he did pre-PEDs suspension, more power to him. I just think he's going to fall way short of living up to those extensions (he's still in the last year of the first extension).
  22. JJHardy7
    Let me start of by saying Ryan Braun was by far my favorite player in my lifetime (not quite old enough to have Yount or Molitor in the discussion). I followed his stats religiously through the minors and I thought he was the special kind of player that could make the Brewers a relevant baseball team. I thought I was right for a few years and then the news of performance enhancing drugs and that saga played out. Braun is now my least favorite player of my lifetime. I don't want to speculate too much, but to me this wasn't a one-time thing or isolated incident. The Brewers owe Braun $122M (counting his buyout which there is no doubt we'll do). I know Suppan, Riske, Gagne, Hall, etc are mentioned as terrible contracts, but when is Braun going to be in this discussion? There is likely little chance he is going to get better as he gets older. His contract is likely untradeable (I hope the Brewers offered him up for Josh Hamilton). What are bf.net's thoughts on Braun? Am I alone thinking he has crippled the franchise to a certain extent?
  23. JJHardy7
    I was talking to a buddy of mine today and we started talking about Brewers (current at the time) and former Brewers that have been booed. Who do you remember being booed?
  24. JJHardy7
    1. Add some type of salary floor/ceiling. 2. Do not end All-Star Home Field Advantage, but remove the need for one team to have a representative. The managers for the respective teams will be from the team that has the best record going into the All-Star break. 3. Make the 25-man roster a 28-man roster. Too many moves throughout the season made for injuries and this way you may be able to avoid the DL for some injuries. 4. Enforce pitch/batting box clock. 5. Change free agency rules to allow for players to be under control of original team for an extra year or two. If player is not on original team, they revert back to current rules.
  25. JJHardy7
    Did Gomez deserve the GG last year?
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