fleehaw
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Everything posted by fleehaw
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Garza to the Dodgers (Off season trade)
fleehaw replied to nate82's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
It’s funny, but I was thinking of a very similar proposal. I think the Brewers should be willing to take on a bad or underperforming contract and/or add money to any deal where it makes sense. The proposal you laid out does just that although Ethier’s contract isn’t terrible for what he’s done so far this year. I do wonder if the Brewers could get more value from the Dodgers now than in the offseason (assuming Garza only misses a start or two). Crawford is currently on a rehab assignment and there’s really no place for him on their roster. Garza, while underperforming, gives them a veteran pitcher to slide into that 4 or 5 spot in their rotation. Additionally, he gives them an arm next year when guys like Greinke (opt-out), Anderson (FA), Ryu (shoulder), and McCarthy (elbow) all have question marks. FWIW, my in season idea was Garza and Broxton (added to even out salaries this year) for Crawford, Barnes, De Leon, and Bellinger. If, and that’s definitely debatable, Garza/Broxton perform similarly to Crawford, it boils down to the Brewers buying the 3 prospects for $16M. I also am assuming that Garza’s option does not vest. -
I don't understand all of the Perez love. Perez has a track record of being a mediocre at best reliever. He had one great year several ysars ago with the other years being blah with bad peripherals. IMO, he needs to pitch lights out in the spring or benefit from other guys getting injured to make the team. He's just not very good. Currently, he shouldn't be in the top 7 for the bullpen. He can change that, but past performance suggests otherwise. There is a reason he signed a milb deal.
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Coors light vs. Bud lite. Pot meet kettle. They are both the dregs of beer choices.
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[sarcasm]As a Brewer fan, mine would be the opposite of this.[/sarcasm]
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Brewers In Serious Talks To Acquire Papelbon
fleehaw replied to narwhalattack's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
As you point to age and declining velocity as a forecast of future struggles, one could point to declining velocity as a move from a 4 seam to a 2 seam as he went to a more hitter's friendly ballpark. His fastball selection suggests this when looking at 2012 and 2013. 2014 contradicts this, but without knowing how accurate fangraphs pitch selection is and the % of undetermined fastballs, one really can't conclude anything. I would certainly hope if the Brewers were going to acquire him that they would be watching a lot of video on him to make a much more educated conclusion. Also, Papelbon, with exception, has historically given up less HR/FB than the league average picture, so xFIP will undersell him. As you've stated, I'd also expect him to regress towards his career norms for home run rate; however, this is still less than league average so it is a good bet that he outperforms his xFIP. -
I believe MLBTR linked an article that referenced two researchers that concluded that offense is down due to a decrease in walks and an increase in strikeouts. And that, defensive shifts did not significantly impact the decrease in offense. I did not read the article, nor do I know the data they used for their conclusions. Just pointing out a conflicting point of view.
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I understand being bullish about Sardinas, but I don't understand penciling him into the 25 man roster this year right now. If he's the utility IF, he'll get what, about 60 starts (barring major injuries) if he's also platooning with Gennett. Is that worth burning his service time as a 21 yo? If Sardinas ends up being an everyday player, I'd rather have him as a 28 yo still playing for the Brewers. Also, his main competition had a nice 2014 in AAA after a dismal 2013. Gomez is a former top prospect with an injury history. He's now entering his prime and is out of options. As long as he looks good in ST, why not roll with him as the backup middle IF while platooning at 2B, and let Sardinas develop into hopefully an everyday player by playing everyday in the minors. If Gomez is atrocious, outright him and call up Sardinas. Now if Sardinas comes in and sets the world on fire, that's a different story. Of course, that story could lead to Segura starting in AAA...
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Segura was not good last year. I get that he's young and has talent, but I think its shortsighted that the Brewers didn't bring in anyone to give him a serious run for his money. He does have options left. This is one area where I have to hand it to the Cardinals. They are not afraid to play their young players and they're not afraid to option them if they're not producing. Wong is a most recent example. Also, there are 486 games between 2B, SS, and 3B. You have durability/age issues at 3B and platoon issues at 2B. Hell, if you just divide that by four, each guy would get 121 starts if you brought in someone like a Drew or Lowrie. Depth would be greatly improved, another LH bat, etc. etc. But, those ships have now sailed. Certainly a missed opportunity for a team 'going for it' in 2015.
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Per cbssports: "There's no immediate word on the Reds' possible return. Given the salary, though, it's likely this is mostly a salary dump and the players to be named won't be highly-touted prospects." I hope they're accurate with this statement. Pure speculation (and I don't know if he's injured or not), but Michael Reed hasn't played since Tues. the 26th. That would be a shame if he's one of the guys. I love his OBP and think he's a real under-the-radar type of guy.
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So an injured reliever and an A ball catcher with a good looking bat, but questionable defense, will net you 2 top SP prospects?
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The Rays made the playoffs last year. Moore and Myers should be healthy next year. To say they're not contenders next year is premature. I find the argument that the Brewers this offseason will somehow be able to get a better package of prospects for Price than the Rays would trading him in the offseason laughAble.
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Trading price would net us 2 Nelsons in the off-season if we trade him to a big market club, because I can guarantee you with all the money in baseball, team who controls a player like Price can blow him away with a FA offer prior to FA. Players aren't going to reach FA like they used to. So many reasons to get price it's laughible. Umm, why wouldn't the Rays just hold on to Price and compete the rest of the season. Then trade him for what you think will be a better return in the offseason?
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Andrelton Simmons - 7 Year $58 Million Extension
fleehaw replied to Warning Track Power's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
How much do people think Segura will get in arbitration when he gets there? 4-7-10? 5-8-12? 7-10-14? For the next 5 years under Brewers control, he'll get around $30M and probably closer to $25M. Why are some people so quick to buy out 2 FA years or more at or very near to perceived market value? Don't forget the Brewers can also slap a qualifying offer on him for his age 29 season. If I were Melvin, I'd propose a team option for his 1st year of FA with the caveat that they will not make him a qualifying offer the next year if the option in picked up. Meaning he will be a FA with no strings attached entering his age 30 season and still potentially in line for another big payday. If the option were picked up, I'd be looking more like a 6yr/$40M. 6 years is a long time. Conceivably, the Brewers can draft/sign and develop a SS in that time outside of those already in the system (Arcia). -
Playing Ramirez at 1B is just an idea and a pretty solid one if they can get a young, talented 3B somehow. Kind of like how moving Braun to RF was just an idea. It was discussed and came to fruition because it made sense for the current roster. Seattle also has Bloomquist as a utility, so Franklin or Miller likely won't be in the majors to start the season. Davis would be improving a weak area for them (OF, right hand hitting). Also, adding Thornburg or ideally one of Jungmann, Helweg, or Burgos gives the M's back of the rotation depth sitting in AAA. It strengthens their team with young talent at a time when they look to be trying to make a run. And I wouldn't discount Gindl's performance to end last year. His stats were quite good in a sample size just a bit smaller than Davis. It boils down to it being much easier to fill a corner OF hole than it is to fill 3B long term. It's definitely an out-of-the box move, but it's one that is fairly lateral this year and very beneficial in the long term (if you believe Franklin can be an above average 3B).
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I'll see your Ackley (and I like it for the right price) and I'll raise you Franklin. I'd imagine that Franklin would be at worst, an average defensive 3B. Ramirez could move to first while backing up/mentoring Franklin. LF would boil down to some combination of Gindl/Schafer/Halton. Franklin appears to be the odd man out after the Cano signing. In addition, the M's have Bloomquist as their utility. What they are missing is a (another) right-handed power hitting OF. Enter Khris Davis. A power core of Cano, Seager, Hart, and Davis, not to mention Morrison and Smoak is pretty balanced and should be pretty decent. I doubt Davis would be enough to nab Franklin. Thornburg/Davis should be plenty although I'd rather one of Jungmann, Helweg, or Burgos take Thornburg's place.
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Last year, we stayed at the Radisson by Mayfair mall (Hwy 100 & Mayfair?). We payed around $75 for the night. The room was clean and looked recently renovated. I would stay there again.
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Well if you exercise the option you are willing to pay him an extra $10 million that you don't have to, if you give him the qualifying offer you are willing to pay him $15 million that you don't have to, which is fairly significant. Maybe let him know if he also declines the option they will not do the qualifying offer. Right, the difference to Ramirez is only $1M to mutually accept his option versus accepting a potential qualifying offer. For the Brewers, the difference is a minimum of $5M (mutually accept and QO).
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So, what you are really saying is Weeks is more clutch than Gennett. Aside from Gennett's success in 40 ABs vs. LHP last year, are years in the minors in which he was far less successful vs. LHP (both starters & relievers). Weeks over his career has been far more successful vs. LHP (both starters & relievers) than Gennett. That is what people are saying. If Weeks and Gennett are on the roster come opening day (and that's a point for debate), then it would be more productive to have Weeks start at 2B vs. LHP.
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Halton had around a .975 OPS vs. LHP in 2012 in his first go-round in AAA. Last year he didn't do nearly as well; however, he was also playing different positions for the first time. Perhaps that has something to do with it, perhaps not. World beater, no. Useful, inexpensive part of a platoon, yes.
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Adam LaRoche? I seem to remember the Nationals souring on him last year. Zimmerman moves to 1B and Rendon to 3B. I don't know what it would take or if I'd even be interested, but it fits the bill for an out-of-nowhere guy.
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If you're going to burn a draft pick by signing a guy with a QO, that guy should be Stephen Drew. After Ramirez, the Brewers are pretty barren at 3B. Drew on a 2-3 year deal could bridge the gap at the position until the Brewers see what they have in guys like Delmonico or Neuhaus. Ramirez would slide over to 1B this year with the hope that one/two of Morris, Halton, Rogers are ready to take over in 2015.
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OPS vs. LHP the past three years ~.900, ~.790, ~.730. He's trending the wrong way and at 37, I wouldn't bet on him turning it around. Plus, how much would it take to sign him, I imagine a couple of million at least. I would much rather just let Halton play 1B vs. LHP for the minimum.
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I'll say that I was pleasantly surprised with Gennett's defense. I thought he should good range albeit with an arm that strictly limits him to 2B.
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Given the current options, I like this idea a lot. Drew had a Ramirez-esque season vs. RHP last year (.875 OPS). Perhaps Ramirez could still play some 3B giving Drew some rest vs. tough lefties (Halton at 1B). I'd much rather give Drew a multiyear deal than Loney.
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True, but if they are hell bent on dealing Price, I doubt they decide to move another starting pitcher.