fleehaw

Miller, Morejon, & Musgrove for Frelick (PTBNL), Yoho, Hall, choice of 50-value prospect Brewers pick up Musgrove’s 2027 $20M salary in its entirety. Padres cover 2026.

Fischer’s K rate is a huge red flag for me.

I’d add the Rangers to that list as well. A package beginning with Jung and Brewers choice of Leiter or White is a nice start.

Aren’t the Blue Jays playing all of their home games in Buffalo? It could be one of the reasons for Tellez’s struggles this year. Regardless, I like the trade. Richards is just a guy (and so is Francis).

McCalvy answered a question from his ‘inbox’ which asked if he’d take the over or under on a $90m payroll. He said he’d take the under based on Stearns’ comments. Nothing close to definitive, but that benchmark isn’t pretty.

The unadjusted 26-man payroll in 2020 appears to be $102.5M (from Cots), so it doesn't look like I added payroll. That being said, I thought I read McCalvy mention he'd be surprised if payroll was more than $90M. That's depressing. I noticed that you haven't posted your plan in this thread; you just seem to poo poo the proposals that are made by others. I'd be sincerely interested in seeing what your plan would be for next year. Please post it.

Trades: 1. C Manny Pina & RHRP Corey Knebel to the Tigers for LHRP Daniel Norris. The Tigers get a mentor for Rogers and a closer on an expiring contract to flip. The Brewers hopefully get Drew Pomeranz Jr. and a bit of salary relief. 2. LHRP Josh Hader & UTIL Jed Gyorko to the Dodgers for C Keibert Ruiz, RHP Josiah Gray, LHP David Price, 3B/UTIL Zach McKinstry, and LHRP Victor Gonzalez The Red Sox are on the hook for about half of Price’s contract leaving 2yrs/$32M. The Dodgers get some salary relief, a huge bullet for their bullpen and a RH UTIL to offset Turner leaving (potentially) in free agency. The Brewers get a catcher of the near future, a pitching prospect a year or two away, an upgrade to the rotation, a potential answer at 3B, and a young bullpen arm. Free Agency: 3. Sign Jake Lamb 1yr/$2M with team option $5M-6M ($0.5-$1.0M Buyout). Lamb’s September with Oakland, albeit small sample size, is something that should get him a guaranteed contract. If he’s finally healthy, he could provide solid production against RHP. 4. I assume that Braun is coming back for a swan song. If he doesn’t, I’d be looking to add a guy like CJ Cron for around the same money sans buyout ($4-$5M). 26 Man Roster $99M Narvaez $ 3.1 Nottingham$ 0.6 Braun $ 8.0 includes $4M buyout Vogelbach $ 1.9 Hiura $ 0.6 Arcia $ 3.8 Urias $ 0.6 Lamb $ 2.0 Yelich $ 14.0 Cain $ 16.0 Garcia $ 10.5 Gamel $ 2.6 Taylor $ 0.6 Woodruff $ 4.5 Burnes $ 0.6 Price $ 16.0 Lindblom $ 3.5 Assumes 130 IP Lauer $ 0.6 Suter $ 1.5 Gonzalez $ 0.6 Norris $ 3.4 Peralta $ 1.0 Yardley $ 0.6 Topa $ 0.6 Houser $ 0.6 Williams $ 0.6 Sogard Buyout $ 0.5

I keep coming back to Lowrie. He fits the short term contract mold and the Brewers don't need him to play every day. And sliding Sogard into a utility role would be a great depth move. Brewers get: Lowrie & Giles Mets get: Arcia (to offset some salary if Urias' wrist is okay; bag of balls if not) Blue Jays get: Smith & Supak/Brown/… I couldn't find/think of any deals where a closer was dealt with 1 year of control left for comparison, but I figured Giles has between 5-10M of surplus value.

If the Twins sign Donaldson, I’d take Marwin Gonzalez for a bag of balls. Average bat and average glove @ 3B. Doesn’t have the upside of a Lowrie, but hasn’t been injury prone either.

You opine Hader (& Arcia) are worth more than Merrifield and Montgomery, that’s fair, but the Brewers actually save about 600K in 2020 in the deal based on arby estimates. Hader @ 4.6m, Montgomery @ 1.2m. Merrifield will make 5m and Arcia will make 2.2m.

You wouldn't make this trade for what the Yankees part with for Hader straight up. Yankees laugh this all off as they get what they wanted nowhere near touching what Stearns was asking for Hader. It really doesn’t matter what Stearns may or may not have asked for from the Yankees, it’s whether what the Brewers receive is deemed as appropriate value in the trade by the Brewers. The primary piece going to the Brewers is from the Royals. The Yankees pieces have value, but the Yankees and Brewers don’t match up well in a Hader deal IMO. The Yankees pieces fit in with the Royals a lot better. If the Brewers believe Merrifield can be their 3B, it’s a solid return.

Unless Stearns would flip Merrifield for a good 3B, no thanks. Where does Merrifield play? The Royals tried him at 3B a couple of years ago (2016/17) and it was a disaster. They quickly returned him to 2B. With Hiura at 2B he'd become the 4th or 5th OF and a backup 2B. The loss of Hader gives CC on of the worst pens in baseball and he still has a black hole at 3B. He played 6 games there. Not exactly enough to to make any determination on his ability there. Not playing much 3B might be telling though True story. 31 innings in the pros (14 chances) and about 160 innings in the minors. Moose was signed to play 2b without having any experience there. This idea is in that vein. The brewers would have to be confident Merrifield could handle it.

Some more fodder for the offseason. Brewers get Merrifield & Jordan Montgomery Yankees get Hader Royals get Andujar, Frazier, Ford, & Arcia Brewers get their name 3B? (and cost certainty) and another lefty for the staff. Royals go for quantity with tons of control and some mlb success. Yankees turn their depth into Hader.

By all indications Diaz is a well below avg. thirdbaseman. His arm is, at most, average and he has large negative numbers as a 3B. I doubt seriously that the Astros would part with Gurriel unless Stearns overwhelmed them, which he is very unlikely to do. Very creative thinking of Nunez. A lot of power and a decent thirdbaseman. I have no idea what it would take to get him, but it's the O's so who knows. FWIW, the BTV website has Nunez with a value of 1. On the Brewers side, for example, Supak has a value of 1.1. Nunez (5 years of control) could also be packaged with Givens (value of 8 - 2 years of control). Again, for example, Peralta has a value of 9.4 (5 years of control).

While I agree that the Yankees don't have a lot that interests me in a Hader deal (that they'd likely give up anyways), they do have some pieces that may interest a third team. Yankees get: Hader Yankees get their man while shedding a couple million in payroll Mariners get: Andujar & Happ Mariners save $18M in 2021 and add another talented young piece to add to their other talented young pieces. Maybe Happ can mentor Sheffield and Kikuchi. Brewers get: Seager, Gonzales, Garcia, Montgomery & Cash ($5-10M from the Yankees) Brewers get their 3B, an upgrade to the rotation, another LHP for the pen, a top 100 prospect, and add between $10-15M in payroll.

What about Austin Riley? The Braves could sign Donaldson, trade for Bryant, or start Camargo. According to the BTV website, Hader and Riley have similar values.

I'm not disagreeing with you as the proposal overvalues Hader, but I don't think the value is as far off as you opine. Mancini also only had one (very) good year in 2019 after being a negative WAR player in 2018. And Gimenez was age 20 last year in AA and was above average. And I agree the Mets/Brewers line up pretty nicely in a Hader deal without including the Orioles. It's just fodder to pass the offseason doldrums.

What if I include Lutz?

Here's a little 3-teamer to pass the time. Arcia could also be included in the Orioles package as a change of scenery candidate. Orioles Dominic Smith Andres Gimenez or a similar Mets prospect(s) in value Jed Lowrie Mets Josh Hader Brewers Trey Mancini Jeff McNeil One of LHP Szapucki/ RHP Wolf/ LHP Peterson

Put up 3.3 WAR in 2018 as the Braves 3B, but struggled last year in a utility role. Comes with 4 years of control and is above average defensively at 3B. If the Brewers believe his production is closer to his 2018 numbers, he could be a target especially if they lose out on Moustakas and Donaldson (and Rendon). FWIW, Moustakas had a 2.8 WAR in 2019. Brewers get: Camargo & Melancon Braves get: Guerra Braves do it to clear between $10M to $14.5M of payroll while dealing from a position of strength (bench depth). Brewers do it to get their 3B of the future while taking on a vastly overpaid reliever. Melancon is signed through 2020 with $14M remaining.

Brewers get: 3B Kyle Seager & LHSP Marco Gonzales Seager is owed $52M over the next 3 years (if traded, the 2022 option becomes a player option). He posted a 110 wRC+ and 2.9 WAR this last year. He’s a very good defender and his splits are pretty even. A possible plan B (or plan A) in the event Moustakas signs elsewhere. Gonzales is under control for 4 more years and has posted WARs of 3.4 and 3.7 the last 2 years. On the Brewers side of things, I’d sell Davies as a secondary piece. If Turang is off-limits, then it probably begins with Burnes or Peralta. Here are a few from the trade website. Gonzales 48.7 Seager -22.2 Total Value 26.5 Burnes 12.6 Davies 5.8 Feliciano 5.1 Garcia 2.9 Total Value 26.4 Davies 5.8 Lutz 9.6 Peralta 9.3 Gray 1.9 Total Value 26.6

Because most pitchers are RHP's and the Brewers already have enough guys who hit RHP's better. I still don't understand why many are obsessed with getting better against LHP's at the expense of getting worse against RHP's, who are the overwhelming majority. Braun, Aguilar, Perez, Pina, Cain, and Arcia are better against LHP's. Shaw, Gamel (barely), Thames, Yelich, Grandal, and Spangenberg are better against RHP's. Pina and Arcia actually have reverse splits and are better / much better versus RHP.

I think the Tulowitzi deal is a fair comparable, or at least a starting point, with a potential Braun deal. Both are a similar age, signed to a similar contract, and have put up similar production. Braun has the better bat, but Tulo is better in the field at a more difficult position. Braun would have 1 1/2 years and $30M less on his contract while putting up roughly his career averages this season. Tulo was traded with 5 ½ years and $110M left on his contract. He netted Jeff Hoffman (top 50), Miguel Castro (org top 10), Jesus Tinoco (Diplan lottery ticket type) and Jose Reyes and the remaining 2 ½ years and $59M left on his contract. The Jays ended up taking on $51M in salary. Braun would be traded with 4 years and $80M (incl. deferred money) on his contract and I agree with others that a deal with the Dodgers makes a lot of sense for both teams. I could see the Brewers kicking in around $20M either by picking up the deferred cash or by picking up the entirety of his 2017 salary (helps the Dodgers luxury tax issues). If so, I would expect to yield something like: Top 50: De Leon or Bellinger Org Top 10: Buehler, Sheffield, Lux, or Barnes Lottery Ticket: Abdullah, Brito, Brendan Davis etc. Adding Thornburg to the deal should add value similar to the Will Smith deal. One would think that it would mean the other of the De Leon/Bellinger pair or a combination of players with a similar aggregate value.

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but was there some sort of blurb about this? Ramirez has DH'd 7 times this year with monthly breakdowns of 1-3-2-1 (to date). There are many reasons that he would occassionally DH and while he definitely seems to be poor defensively in his first year in the OF, I haven't seen anything that would suggest him DH'ing is the trend to expect moving forward. If that is indeed the case, I would agree that including Lind would make less sense depending on their game plan next year.

Boston gets: Lucroy and Lind Colorado gets: LHP Henry Owens Milwaukee gets: 3B Ryan McMahon, RHP Ryan Castellani, 3B/1B Rafael Devers, and LHP Trey Ball Boston upgrades their two weakest positions for not only this year, but next as well. Lucroy can mentor Swinhart while splitting time at C and 1B with Lind. Not to mention framing the heck out of Porcello, Bucholz, Rodriguez, and Miley. Colorado gets some major league ready pitching it’s been looking for by dealing from a position of strength. Milwaukee gets two highly talented 3Bs at A+ and A (although Devers may end up at 1B) and 2 young A ball pitchers that were drafted in the 1st round in 2013 (Ball) and 2nd round in 2014 (Castellani). If Milwaukee can get some key pieces in other trades (for example: Norris/Pentecost in the TOR thread and/or Barnes in the LAD thread), then this makes even more sense for them IMO.