TheCrew07

Arnett gives up another unearned run... wow. That's 9 unearned runs in 21 IP or so.

Rivas will have too many innings by the time the season is over. Braddock on the taxi squad sort of stinks, at least in my opinion, but at least he'll be pitching, any innings is better than no innings at this point.

Nah it's the same way he built up milwaukee's system, I don't necessarily agree, but it's worked, and they do have some nice arms in the organization already.

True big contracts are not the devil, but I didn't/wouldn't classify Hall as a cornerstone player. Braun had enough talent and production out of the gate to get signed right away. Fielder had enough talent and production out of the gate to be signed right away. The rest of the gang, not so much. I'd like to build around 2-3 position players, and 2-3 pitchers, and have a revolving door around the rest. Signing players to long term deals isn't the problem, signing the wrong player to a deal is.

I think point you're missing Nate is that Bush is a #3 best case, his actual physical talent puts him in 4/5 range. I've posted before I absolutely love his tenacity on the mound, but he's just not very talented when compared to his peers. When I bag on the Overbay trade, I mean Bushy no disrespect, he's gotten the most of out of his talent. It's just that particular deal appears to be quanity over quality in hindsight. I think Bush can be an effective #3, but I think you can point to a couple of months as proof of what he is or isn't. Prior to being sent down in 2008 he wasn't pitching well, he was pretty decent from his recall last season until getting hit by the line drive this year. That's about a year's worth of starts. I'm not ready to make proclamation either way on any players in the middle ground talent wise based on just a year's worth of data. If he threw 95 with 3 plus pitches I'd be all over his bandwagon after a good season, but with average stuff I'm in wait and see mode. His minor league rehab starts this time around were at least encouraging. Really, it's not about Bush being a solid #3, Looper a #4, Suppan a #5, or Parra being a #5, it's about upgrading the talent in the rotation, why wouldn't we upgrade the talent if the opportunity presents itself? I'm looking to get to a place where a Bush type is our 5th best starter not our second best or our third best. It's sort of the same reason people calling Cappy the "Ace" of the Brewer's staff drove me nuts. Being the 2nd best pitcher on an average to below average staff doesn't mean that he's a #1 or #2, he did manage to have an ERA around 4 for 2 years while pitching over 200 innings in both but regressed again in that 4th year. I wonder if he would have been able to keep it going with out the injury, unfortunately we'll never know, he's another pitcher that Melvin acquired who got better results than his stuff. From the outside looking in it appears that DM is hung up a little bit too much on pitchability.

I despised Madden with a passion, the game had passed him bye and he spent a great deal of time uttering absolute nonsense.

I used to play chess in when I was bored in study hall in high school, it was a way for me to remain competitive even though I was in class (the teacher of this particular study hall was actually the adviser of the chess club). Now I find myself playing chess quite often in my free time to keep my mind sharp. It's weird how things in my life keeping coming back around.

BK has now racked up 158 SOs on the season. Only 1 player in the league has more, Kyle Russell (161) but Kyle sports a .919 OPS. In addition to Kyles SOs, he's hit 34 doubles, 6 triples, 61 walks, and 25 HRs... Rob Deer who? He is 22 years old, but I'd take that kind of power for my team any day. Unfortunately Brock is only sporting a .768 OPS. In fact, Brock has the most strike outs in the entire organization, the next closest player is Katin with 154, Koshansky is also right there with 151. Interestingly enough, Gamel has K'd 117 times this season, more than Brewer, I didn't realize Matt had struck out 121 times last season, somehow I had missed it. His K's have gone up drastically the last 2 seasons. He had 81 SOs at WV and 98 when he was in BC. I'm actually shocked that I missed how many times he whiffed in AA, I never considered him a strike out guy.

Watten hasn't been able to string together a successful season. He's got a very nice sinker, but it appears if he doesn't have his sinker he's going to be ineffective. I haven't seen him struggle either... I did forget Adams in my list, but I've just about written him off, his velocity is very average and his location stinks. If he could get his FB even into the 92-93 consistently I'd feel better about him. When I saw him pitch he topped out at 92, not the 96 that was reported pre draft.

He'll get big money, but I'm not sure the money will be 200 million big. He's a premium hitter there's no doubt, but he also carries significant risk given his weight and family history. I'm not so sure you can separate Prince from Cecil's rapid decline and is a DH worth that much money regarless how well he hits? I don't see him getting Ramirez money though I most definitely could be wrong, especially if a bidding war started. It's probably just because I wouldn't invest that much in a player like Fielder if I was a GM that I don't see him getting that money. I won't be surprised if he does, but that's quite a bit of coin for someone that might not stick in the field.

Excellent topic TLB. I would like to see the Black Sox, the 27 Yankees, Ruth, Gibson, Drysdale, Mayes, Clemente, Kofax, Cy Young, and Ted Williams play in person.

Hopefully Taylor Green is pulling out of his slump, he's not had a monthly BA at .250 or below since April of 2007, in July he batted .238 and he's batting .197 through yesterday's action in August. This is by far the longest slump of his short career, I was pretty excited about his .936 OPS in June then the bottom fell out. It would be sweet to have him finish strong and rake in the AFL.

Gamel isn't playing again today, I hope it's nothing serious that's keeping him out of the lineup.

Odorizzi with a nice day on the hump, too bad Helena has been playing brutal baseball this half, well most of the organization outside of BC has stunk in the second half. Lucroy's hit streak also comes to an end, which is too bad.

The problem of course is that they aren't used in a "fun" manner, information from fangraphs is used as a definitive measure of right and wrong. I get what your saying about baseball in a vacuum, but unfortunately it doesn't work that way and people don't treat it as such. How many times has someone on this site posted something along the lines of "fangraphs has him worth X million, he's earned his contract" in a debate with another poster. It doesn't matter if it's Sheets, Suppan, Cameron.. whomever... every time a contract is discussed someone is going to fangraphs, grabbing the value and using it as fact why another poster is wrong is his/her argument. It's just not that black and white for any number of reasons, but it's very rarely used in a :fun: manner. Since when did frangraphs (a site I really enjoy) become a bastion of truth for all things baseball? Especially in relation to the minor leagues, where the relative talent level of the league and players within in the league is always changing due promotions, players making adjustments and improving, etc. I was using BABIP as another flawed example of statistical analysis, and actually it's used the way I suggest pretty much every time it's used. Look at the McGehee thread today and you'll see BABIP regression analysis. I have no problem believing that Gamel is more talented than McGehee and should have been playing at 3B while McGehee and Counsell played second, I argued for it myself However McGehee falling off some isn't a result of a high BABIP, it's a function of how difficult it is to consistently play this game at a high level. Casey made the most of his opportunity, regardless of what his true talent may be, I'm not going to take that away from him, he's hit very well this season on the whole. Playing the high BABIP card suggests that a player has been getting lucky, just like the playing the low BABIP card suggests a player has been unlucky (see the why is Hardy getting a free pass thread).

The dollar value is an extrapolation of WAR... why not just stick to WAR than some unrealistic meaningless value? The dollar value doesn't work well because of the sliding scale of economy in baseball, many teams in baseball have to operate on a cost controlled basis. Cameron's performance isn't worth 18 million dollars to anyone including the Brewers, so he's not an 18 million dollar player. There's just too many holes for people to continue to say player X is worth Y because fangraphs says so. It may be true that fangraphs says player X is worth Y dollars, but it doesn't make it a fact, yet the dollar value is argued like it's an absolute. A player isn't necessarily worth his contract just because fangraphs says he's worth $13 million and he's being paid $12 million, very few players actually make their fangraphs dollar value, there is a wide gulf between the fangraphs value and market value. I'm not even sold that WAR is "spot on", but it's a simple way for me to compare value when discussing trades. I like advanced statistics but people get way too carried with them sometimes. It's like a player who has a crappy BABIP like Lucroy most of the season... if you're a hitting coach are going to tell him, "Don't worry, your BABIP will move towards the mean and you'll start getting hits again" or will you sit down and break down video and see what's going on with his swing? BABIP is an effect, and it will move towards the middle because it's very difficult to be dominant for an entire 162 game schedule if a player is going well. If he's not hitting or pitching well if he doesn't turn it around (start heading towards the mean) it's unlikely he stays with the big club all season... There's more to this than numbers on a page... Then again maybe Johnathon doesn't know what he's talking about and his luck is just averaging out now?

WI narrowly avoids being no hit...

reply #20

Wrong, Melvin came in and recognized scouting talent, and keep the dept intact and provided consistent direction, there is no shame in that. I've taken Z to task numerous times regarding the lack of pitching in the organization. See previous. Ultimately Melvin was in a position to address the issue, we've been down this road literally 100s of times in this thread. He's had his opportunities to address the situation and hasn't done anything long term of significance since 2003. Err what? My opinion that Hardy should have been moved isn't revisionist history, I argued for it all winter. His suckitude this season has nothing to do with it. Furthermore, I never liked Hall and didn't want him extended either. I was very new to posting around here at the time, had just gotten stomped for asking why everyone loved that scrub Ginter so much, I wasn't going to stick my neck out again and go against the flow, regrettably so now. However every post I've ever made about Hall says pretty much the same thing. I would have traded Hall for the same reason I would trade McGehee if a team is interested, and I've explained those ideas at length in various other posts. I listed a bunch of players Melvin could have moved for pitching if he was willing, in addition to acquiring very average talent in the Overbay trade. I'm not talking about trading them today, I'm was talking about identifying pieces that could have been somewhat easily replaced and moving them for pitching. Fielder is a special hitter, Braun is a special talent, all of the rest of the guys could have been moved without significantly weakening the team, regardless of when they were moved. It's simply much easier to get affordable production out of position players in FA than it is pitching. Who even suggested that in this thread? Maybe I skimmed past it catching up on posts. Who are we even talking about? McGehee? Over performed their contract by what measure? Fangraphs' contract value? When fangraphs' value matches fair market value (what that player would command on the open market) then you might have a case. I don't want to get into the whole sliding economic scale thing in this post, but relative value between what the Brewers can play a player and the Yankees can pay a player should make my case for me. Nope, not even close to what's being said. Melvin, as the GM is ultimately responsible for the state of the MLB ball club. Z definitely didn't have enough high ceiling, or even MLB caliber arms in the system, but DM had his chances along the way to remedy the situation. Even 1 more quality starter acquired prior to 2008 may have made a drastic difference in the current make up of the team today, maybe we'd be in the same position, but I doubt it. He acquired Wright, Green, and Looper this off season (scrub, scrub, old stop gap), did he even inquire about Jackson or Niemann from TB knowing they had too many pitchers for 5 rotation spots? Many of us pointed out at the time that Wright and Green weren't better depth than what we already had in AAA, and at the time I posted "why not Niemann?" This isn't rocket science, I argued against acquiring Sabathia for this very scenario... a major hole in the rotation, 2 more holes on the way in Bush and Suppan leaving, and this first wave approaching FA. We couldn't dump all of the prospects in the system with all of the holes coming up, and every prospect Melvin dumps on a position player is an asset wasted. He's had a finite number of assets to trade and DM hasn't acquired a single starting pitcher (the biggest hole in the entire organization) of significant talent since JDLR. I have hard time understanding why this idea isn't supremely clear. If we don't have any pitching in the system, don't trade for the pitching, and aren't able to afford FA pitching, where is the pitching going to come from? Every prospect Melvin dumps on a position player is an asset wasted, the Lopez move was completely unnecessary, I would have much rather moved Gillespie and Mercedes as part of a package for pitching. As Peavey previously pointed out, I've been a critic of every single move Melvin has made in the last 3 years... I've pissed on every deal because he's never addressed the fundamental problem with the team or the organization, the starting pitching. All these line up tweaks, bull pen acquisitions, and so on have been trying to cure the symptom instead of the disease. When he finally acquires a starting pitcher with significant talent that we can control for 2-3 years I'll give DM his props. Until then I'll fire away on every single meaningless acquisition like Lopez and stop gap move like Looper. Fix the root cause Doug, and everything else will fall in line for you.

I haven't seen a single metric that likes McGehee defensively, he rates out as pretty much average. Ennder mentioned something about BP, I don't have a subscription over there anymore so I couldn't look into it at all? He doesn't appear to have plus range, but I'm unsure when he injured his knee. I haven't been wow'd by him when watching, even making plays on balls hit right at him, and totalzone has him at basically neutral in his MiLB career.

Well considering Salome tore apart the SL last year and got one mention in the hot sheet all season, I'm not surprised.

Are you sure the clock starts on the 12th and not the 13th? At any rate he has to remain down 21 days, not 20.

If Hardy is down for less than 20 days he still gets credit for a full year of service which wouldn't effect his FA at all. He has to remain down past the Sept 1 roster expansion to gain another year of service time.

This is like the Hardy discussion from last off-season all over again, with the same arguments. I guess if people continue to hold out some hope that Fielder will resign here, like they hoped Sabathia would resign here, then I guess you could make a pretty good case to hang onto Prince. I don't think that's realistic, nor would I sign a guy with his weight issues to a market contract if I'm a GM on a tight budget. The issue at hand here is if Prince's Production + 2 comps picks is worth more to the Brewers than a possible trade haul would be. I tend to use WAR in these arguments, maybe that type of argument goes over someone's head, I'm not sure. I'm not surprised that once again people talk about the offensive side of this argument, when we'll lose his production regardless in the next 2 years. Runs prevented are just as valuable as runs created, why are we happy with an average pitching staff and above average offense? While the end goal is outscoring your opponent, there's literally dozens of different ways to get there in a given game. I tend to eliminate the draft picks from the discussion because they could be Dykstra and Frederickson just as easy as they could be Davis and Heckathorn, the value of a draft pick is nearly impossible to define before the pick is made. Furthermore, as we are dealing with the current MLB team, I think the current production is more relevant than any possible production from draft picks. I know we need pitching, I've been on that bandwagon for a very long time, I'm not sure Prince is the one I would try to move to get it. I was much more inclined to move Fielder before we traded away LaPorta as I still think LaPorta is a 1B in MLB. I still pout that Melvin didn't try to trade Prince for Jame Shields like I suggested last season... given the current state of the team I thought it made sense to move 1 MLB player for multiple high ceiling pieces than trying to trade multiple prospects to acquire 1 proven ace. Now that LaPorta and Co are gone, Sabathia was a rental, and Melvin didn't move Hardy last off season, I'm not sure what the best course of action here is. There isn't any one move that's jumping out at me like in years past. Since I've accepted it's unlikely we'll acquire any top of the rotation talent with Melvin as GM, I'm hoping that Jones, Cody, or Butler will explode and give us another above average starter, and I'll continue to hope that Parra realizes how good his stuff is and begins to capitalize on his talents. In addition I'll be following Rogers and Rivas very closely in AA, as they could realistically make the jump to fill injury holes next season, maybe never relinquishing the rotation spot if they get it.

Following the minors makes it easier, there's always a couple of good story lines on the farm night in and night out. If the Brewers win, whatever happens on the farm is gravy, if the Brewers lose some minor leaguer does something worth getting excited about. It helps me even out the ups and downs of a long baseball season. As for this moment in time, I don't get to see any games... I get home and check the score, if they won I watch the highlights on mlb.com and browse the box score, if not, I move on with my night. I have very little invested in baseball once my football season starts.