I'm not demanding perfection with the bullpen, if I were any one or two run loss would be unacceptable, which just isn't the case. I was mostly thinking of all the 3+ run lead games we've blown via the bullpen and remembering the several times people here have said that statistically any pitcher should be able to be trusted with a 3 or 4 run lead for one inning. I also remember several times where we've lost a game that we had (at some point in the game) a 95-99 percent chance of winning according to those win probability charts people tend to post from time to time. I realize that every bullpen gives up one or two runs now and again and has really bad outings as well in which games can be won or lost, but as far as the question all I was doing was answering the question. As far as your Yost points, you're right a lot of the moves a manager could make don't have huge percentage swings associated with them, but as you also said there would be between a 6 and 8 percent chance (which is significant) that if either Jenkins or Counsell batted that player would have had more success than Mench (I only cite that because that's the only scenario you broke down statistically). To me, one thing I'd like the manager to do more often than not is to play the matchup which gives his team the best chance to win. In the Mench example, Mench is the guy who least gives us the best chance to win according to the statistics. Obviously there is still well over a 70% chance that whoever batted would have failed, but at that point in the game I'd take the higher chance of success over the lower chance almost always. And having cited what I'd like to see from a manager, it only makes sense that in the examples I cited, Ned did not play the matchup which would give us the best chance to win. In some ways I have appreciated Ned's ability to motivate players who aren't as good or don't have as many physical tools as other players, but at the same time if we do have players who are better than those players statistically and give us a better chance to win, I'd like to see them playing when appropriate more often than not. That's not to say Ned never plays the percentages to give us the best chance to win, because he does. It just would appear he tends to deviate from that slightly more than most coaches do, and because we're in a pennant race those moves are magnified instead of glossed ever as learning opportunities for the players involved.