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Home/Road Splits


dvoiss

Having just finished another successful home stand and beginning the road trip 0-2 got me to thinking about the Brewers road woes over the last few years. Over the Last 3 years the Crew's Win% home/road splits have looked like this:

 

2006 Home .592 Road .333

2007 Home .630 Road .395

2008 Home .655 Road .394

Total Home .618 Road .369

 

The third staright year our road% is like 250 points below our home%. What is this about? There is something seriously wrong here and untl it is fixed we really can't go anywhere. But how do you fix something like this? I don't know. It's not something you can fix through personell moves like shaking up the lineup or the rotation. Or by firing the manager. So what do you do? It's been happening for so long now that it just can't be pure coincidence or luck. It's extremely frustrating. That I know.

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Has the manager or anyone looked for reasons? Do the guys go out partying all night on the road? Do they not sleep well on the road?

What would it cost to fly back and forth from home every day, that might be the only way this team ever makes the playoffs.

 

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I have heard/read Yost say that he doesn't like to rest his players in front of the home fans, that he will give more days off to his regulars on the road. Obviously, he sometimes rests them at home, so it's more of a guideline. Anyway, I wonder if Yost rests his regulars on the road more than the average manager? Could be one explanation. Of course, I would think most managers would think the same way, but I don't feel like doing the research and I don't know how that information could be easily gathered.
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There is something seriously wrong here and untl it is fixed we really can't go anywhere.

 

Why?

You don't seriously believe that a team that cannot play .400 ball at home has a legitimate shot at doing anything? I haven't done any studies on this or anything but common sense tells me it would be a bit difficult without improving our road record.

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Historically, there's about an 8% difference between a team's home and road win%. Home field advantage is up this year, for whatever reason (probably no reason). That advantage usually comes from players just performing better in general at home than on the road (better component stats). I looked at this a little while ago and I think the Brewers' pythagorean record was just as extreme. I think this needs to be looked at on a player by player basis. What players have more extreme home/road splits from 2006-2008?

 

You don't seriously believe that a team that cannot play .400 ball at home has a legitimate shot at doing anything? I haven't done any studies on this or anything but common sense tells me it would be a bit difficult without improving our road record.

 

Had they had even a more extreme home/road split last year and won 3 extra home games, they would have made the playoffs. If for whatever reason, the Brewers continue to have a larger than average home/road split, so what? If they get better overall, they will still win more games at home and on the road. The difference will just remain atypically larger.

 

No study. Just common sense.

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Had they had even a more extreme home/road split last year and won 3 extra home games, they would have made the playoffs. If for whatever reason, the Brewers continue to have a larger than average home/road split, so what? If they get better overall, they will still win more games at home and on the road. The difference will just remain atypically larger.

 

No study. Just common sense.

OK. Fair enough. Overall improvement is theoretically possible without improving the road record. But I still feel that this team's inability to play well on the road is hampering their ability to compete (and to improve their record) and it needs to be taken into consideration by the front office as they try to improve this team. How much can you really improve overall if you don't start winning on the road? The problem of course is, as I alluded to in my original post, is how do you deal with this problem? There really is no solution because there is no real clear explanation for it.

 

Maybe you are right. Maybe they need to look at this problem from a player by player point of view rather than from a team view. Because other than that what can you do?

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On the FSN broadcast today, Trenni said that there are only 4 (or 5 - can't quite remember) teams that are over 500 on the road. Not sure if she was just talking NL or not....seems like it's a problem for everyone. The Braves, for example, have an absolutely horrible road record right now.
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Overall improvement is theoretically possible without improving the road record.

 

Like I said, they can improve their road record while keeping a large home/road split. They just have to win more games overall.

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Just off the top of my head (like most things) I just assume that teams are going to win less on the road because of the home team getting the last Ab, players having more of a 'comfort' level @ home and whatever small advantage the home crowd support brings. Not really measurable stuff.
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