corey hart

[endaround]

No he was terrible last season and his defense is spiraling downward given his constant injuries.

 

Speaking of which Youkilis is coming off a down season and heading for surgery. No thanks.

[RockCoCougars]

Fukudome is just a 'guy'. I'd join a lot of fans in sacking Miller Park if they gave him a three year deal for good money. I'm still trying to figure out how a .260 career hitter can be a 'good OBP guy'. He averages a homer every 50 or so plate appearances, so he has little power either. He has a nice arm, but so did that Carroll dude the Brewers had this season. Don't get me wrong, he'd be a great replacement for Kotsay at a shade more money as a 5th outfielder, but he'd be a huge downgrade over Hart.

[kramnoj]

I'm still trying to figure out how a .260 career hitter can be a 'good OBP guy'

 

What's keeping you from figuring it out? BA doesn't equal OBP. For his career, his OBP is 21 points higher than the context adjusted league average.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm still trying to figure out how a .260 career hitter can be a 'good OBP guy'

 

What's keeping you from figuring it out? BA doesn't equal OBP. For his career, his OBP is 21 points higher than the context adjusted league average.

I'm not going to argue this again extensively... but as he gets even older, and his batting average drops, his OBP will as well, unless he gets 'better' at drawing walks. I don't buy into the OBP fascination, especially when the guy as a low batting average and/or little power. Fukudome is an extreme case, because his career batting average is putrid for an outfielder who has shown little power with a corresponding low slugging percentage. As I've said, since he's OK defensively, he wouldn't be a bad 5th outfielder, but that's about all he is.

[Matt Breen]

MNBrew, Fukudome was very good with the Cubs. He's good defensively and good with OBP. He was only a flop in the eyes of Cubs fans.

I've read some things that indicate Fukudome has slipped defensively.

 

UZR has him really dropping over the past 2 years with a -5.6 UZR in 2010 and -11.5 for 2011.

 

When I saw him this year, he didn't look anything special - but it was only a few games on TV.

[kramnoj]

I don't buy into the OBP fascination, especially when the guy as a low batting average and/or little power.

 

What fascination do you see? A comment was made that he was good with OBP. That's just a statement of fact. And someone can easily have good OBP with a low batting average. Of course, if you really believe that a batter isn't responsible for his own approach and the success it brings, it's going to lead to confusion and lack of understanding.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't buy into the OBP fascination, especially when the guy as a low batting average and/or little power.

 

What fascination do you see? A comment was made that he was good with OBP. That's just a statement of fact. And someone can easily have good OBP with a low batting average. Of course, if you really believe that a batter isn't responsible for his own approach and the success it brings, it's going to lead to confusion and lack of understanding.

Because Fukudome brings nothing else to the table. His career slugging percentage is less than .400. His career batting average is .260. Even if he is a significant defensive upgrade over Hart, that is canceled out by a significant offensive downgrade. Not to mention the fact that he's older and it's likely that his defense and arm will see a decline. I believe that outfielders like Fukudome and DeJesus are highly overrated by the OBP enthusiasts, especially when they are too old to play center. I'm of the school that you need some power from your corner outfielders. As a backup, I could see a role for a guy like Fukudome, but I think it would be foolish to trade Hart and give up on Gamel while giving him extensive playing time- especially with the pending loss of Fielder.

 

Bottom line, rightly or wrongly, I'm never going to agree with the sabermetric guys on the intrinsic value of a walk, no matter what the statistical models/studies say.

[JohnBriggs12]

Fukudome is not good enough defensively nor are his OBP skills enough to offset his well below average power playing in a power position. Besides he'll be 35 next season. He's not all that dissimilar to Mark Kotsay. In a sub role for around $1.25 million that's fine, but no way is he a starting corner OF.

[kramnoj]

Bottom line, rightly or wrongly, I'm never going to agree with the sabermetric guys on the intrinsic value of a walk, no matter what the statistical models/studies say.

 

Why would you choose ignorance over knowledge?

[RockCoCougars]

Bottom line, rightly or wrongly, I'm never going to agree with the sabermetric guys on the intrinsic value of a walk, no matter what the statistical models/studies say.

 

Why would you choose ignorance over knowledge?

Because I'm from the past. Except in extreme cases (Jose K), I am generally predisposed to prefer hitters with 'pop'. From what I've seen in many years of watching baseball, it's very tough to win without decent power in your lineup- especially in the traditional 'power positions' (first, corner OF). If you don't have that, you had better steal a ton of bases and have good pitching with some solid glovework too(see the 80's Cardinals teams and even the '92 Brewers). Bottom line, it generally takes a combination of 3 or even 4 walks/singles to score a run. I know that my beliefs fly in the face of modern statistical thinking, but I'm pretty set in my ways. I've argued this extensively in the posts earlier this year where we were debating the merits of Counsell/Jamey Carroll.

[kramnoj]

Bottom line, it generally takes a combination of 3 or even 4 walks/singles to score a run. I know that my beliefs fly in the face of modern statistical thinking, but I'm pretty set in my ways.

 

There's no reason to have beliefs when actual stats exist. You can look through gamelogs. How many times can you find that it takes 4 walks and singles to score a run?

 

Of course power is good. Do you find anyone arguing against having power?

[RockCoCougars]

Of course power is good. Do you find anyone arguing against having power?

 

Those who are defending Fukudome's "OBP skills" are in a roundabout way.

[CheezWizHed]

Long before we would consider giving Fukudome a 3yr/$24M contract, I would give the position to Gindl. And I'm not a huge Gindl fan (i.e. that he is a 4th OF, limited starter).

 

But Gindl would seem to have better defense and at worst, the same offense as Fuk.

[monty57]

Of course power is good. Do you find anyone arguing against having power?

 

Those who are defending Fukudome's "OBP skills" are in a roundabout way.

I agree with you that the calls for OBP are probably overdone at times, but guys with both "OBP skills" and power get big contracts and are hard to find. We're losing one of the best OBP/power guys in the league this offseason when someone offers Prince a mammoth contract. Sometime teams without a Yankee-caliber payroll have to settle with lesser players, and if a player only had one skill, OBP would be a decent one to have.

 

Going into next season, we have Weeks, Braun and Hart who would make up a decent 3-4-5 next year, with a good OBP guy in Morgan batting 1 or 2. I'd like to see us add another OBP guy to bat 1 or 2. That said, I certainly wouldn't offer Fukudome 3 years / $24MM. First, that would take a better player (Hart) off the team. Second, he's not worth it. I'd rather the other "OBP guy" be a shortstop. Otherwise, we're going to have to stick with Hart or Weeks at #1, and hope Gamel or Green can hit well enough to man the #5 hole, or I guess we could move Lucroy to #2.

[RockCoCougars]

Of course power is good. Do you find anyone arguing against having power?

 

Those who are defending Fukudome's "OBP skills" are in a roundabout way.

I agree with you that the calls for OBP are probably overdone at times, but guys with both "OBP skills" and power get big contracts and are hard to find. We're losing one of the best OBP/power guys in the league this offseason when someone offers Prince a mammoth contract. Sometime teams without a Yankee-caliber payroll have to settle with lesser players, and if a player only had one skill, OBP would be a decent one to have.

 

Going into next season, we have Weeks, Braun and Hart who would make up a decent 3-4-5 next year, with a good OBP guy in Morgan batting 1 or 2. I'd like to see us add another OBP guy to bat 1 or 2. That said, I certainly wouldn't offer Fukudome 3 years / $24MM. First, that would take a better player (Hart) off the team. Second, he's not worth it. I'd rather the other "OBP guy" be a shortstop. Otherwise, we're going to have to stick with Hart or Weeks at #1, and hope Gamel or Green can hit well enough to man the #5 hole, or I guess we could move Lucroy to #2.

I see your point, but I'd actually be willing to lay money that Gamel would have a higher OBP than Fukudome if both were given a full season in 2012. I'd definitely bet a good sum that Gamel would have a higher slugging percentage. As for Hart, I'd do the same, except I'd bet the farm that he will outslug Fukudome. If Fukudome played SS, we may be onto something, but not as a corner outfielder in my view.

[monty57]

I agree RockCo. I wouldn't sign Fukudome unless we could get him cheap as our backup corner OF. I doubt we'd be able to do that, so I'd pass. Unless the return was monumental, there's no way I'd trade Hart so that I could sign Fukudome to play RF, as Hart is the better player, and we'll need Hart's bat in the lineup next year.

 

As I mentioned, ideally we could get a high-OBP SS to bat 1 or 2 in the order next year. I don't know if that player exists outside of Reyes, but I hope Melvin can find someone to fill that role.