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Jeremy Guthrie re-signs with KC - 3 years/$25 million


reillymcshane
Brewer Fanatic Contributor

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/royals-sign-jeremy-guthrie.html

 

Not that I want or like Guthrie, but the signing shows that the price of starting pitching is going up if this is any indication.

 

Mediocrity at a high price - and for multiple years! And at the peak ages of 34-36 years old. KC fans should be thrilled.

 

How does Dayton Moore still have a job?

 

I realize Guthrie pitched well once he arrived in KC, but he's never been that good to begin with, and he's getting older. Oh well, better them than us.

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but the signing shows that the price of starting pitching is going up if this is any indication.

 

This is the key. All it takes is one team to "set the bar high" for mid-tier starters and then everyone else can use that as a baseline. Every agent can now use this to say "Guthrie got 3/$25, and my guy's better than Guthrie."

 

If Melvin has a target in mind, he needs to strike quickly before the "feeding frenzy" hits. Once that hits, I'd prefer Melvin sit on the sidelines and see what's left that he can get cheap when the sharks are gone.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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I dunno, a career 4.28 ERA with 80+% of it coming in the AL East, and he got $8.33M AAV. Doesn't seem too out of line, especially since the Royals will probably need at least one innings-eater as a placeholder for a season or more.

 

Aren't many Brewers fans advocating giving Ryan Dempster (two seasons older) somewhere in the neighborhood of $10-12M or so AAV for two seasons? This contract doesn't seem too out of line for me given the economic landscape & the Royals' developmental standing. Plus, if Guthrie can pitch to career norms, KC could probably flip him for a decent return if they wanted.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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What am I missing here? Is this the same Jeremy Guthrie? If so, does he have incriminating photos of someone in the KC front office or something....I'd think he would have to in order to command a three year deal.

 

Seems like every year someone breaks out to an early lead for 'Stupidest Move of the Off-Season'.

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KC has enough quality young hitting to compete for a while, but they have no starting pitching. They will desperately need both Montgomery and Odorizzi to come through for them next season to have a legit chance at a playoff run regardless of Guthrie.

 

I've said this before but KC is in a similar position to we were in 2006... all these nice position prospects and but no starting pitching to go with. We signed Suppan, they are signing Guthrie. KC does have help further down the system, they have a young lefty who missed the year with TJ who will likely start in AA next season and be on track track for 2014/2015 debut if he continues to progress. Beyond him they have a couple of intriguing players lower in the system but they are very thin pitching wise at the top.

 

I'm not keen on the signing, but Guthrie is familiar and he's also about all they can afford in FA until the new MLB TV agreement kicks in for 2014. If they aren't willing to trade any of their young hitting for young pitching then they'll be pitching deficient just like we were. If you aren't developing pitching and can't afford the impact pitchers in FA, all that's left is the trade market and middling FA pitchers. If you won't flip young players/prospects for similar players then all you have available to you is the middle to bottom of the FA pitching market... it's just the reality of the situation.

 

I would advocate that KC make the same kind of trades prospect for prospect or young player for young player that I was suggesting the Brewers make back in the day.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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Iirc you recently said the Royals' A-ball rotation last season was the best MiLB rotation you'd seen in recent years. Seems like that would mean said pitchers would be about 3 seasons away. Not suggesting you said anything contrary, but your post here reminded me of how highly you regarded their A rotation.
Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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If you aren't developing pitching and can't afford the impact pitchers in FA, all that's left is the trade market and middling FA pitchers.

 

I agree but let me point out they already made this deal, they got a very middling FA pitcher in the Santana trade. Probably a #4 at best guy.

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Brewer Fanatic Contributor

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs put this best:

 

Durable innings eaters have value, especially to big revenue teams that are close to contention and need to minimize their downside at the back-end of their roster. The Royals aren’t that team, though.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/royals-celebrate-mediocrity-sign-jeremy-guthrie/

 

Guthrie is an aging pitcher, who if he slips even a little bit, will be a bad pitcher.

 

He would be an okay guy to have on a one year deal. But a back-loaded three year deal is a killer.

 

Lower budget teams have have to often take risks in order to maximize the dollars. But signing Guthrie for three years at this point of his career is going 'all in' on mediocrity.

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Iirc you recently said the Royals' A-ball rotation last season was the best MiLB rotation you'd seen in recent years. Seems like that would mean said pitchers would be about 3 seasons away. Not suggesting you said anything contrary, but your post here reminded me of how highly you regarded their A rotation.

 

If I said that about the Royals I meant the Blue Jays, that trio in Lansing was fantastic. It's certainly possible as I've caught myself making that kind of error on proofreads in the past.

 

I linked them once during the course of the season because there was some interesting talk about developing pitching in the article, but they were covered a ton by MiLB and occasionaly by BA.

 

Here's the link to the team.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/team.cgi?id=3c6e7a9e

 

Scroll down to pitching, click the GS column, and then look at the stats across each row for each player. Obviously Nicolino just got moved, but my goodness what a rotation for that level.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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