Brett Lawrie: still mystifying

[jjfanec]

Brett Lawrie continues to be one of the most mystifying players in baseball to me. He had a very good August - .892 OPS - which made it seem like maybe he was rebounding to the form many thought he would show. Then comes September and an OPS of .522. I dont know what to make of Lawrie's potential. He has only had one month with a batting average over .213 this season.

 

Personally I since he left the Brewers I have selfishly (and maybe sadly) not wanted to see Lawrie succeed. I always figured he would but since i didnt want to give up an all-star I tried to convince myself he wouldnt turn out. Now I am wondering if he really wont become the player many of us thought he would

[jjfanec]

Here is an article that pretty much states what I did with more stats. His WAR last year seemed extremely inflated and has come crashing down this year.

 

http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2013/09/23/toronto-blue-jays-brett-lawrie-remains-a-tough-read-as-2013-draws-to-a-close/

[James Zumstein]

I think this is one of those trades that fans of both sides were able to say at one time that is was a great deal for their team, but in the end neither side ended up getting the player that they were hoping for. It goes to show why even top prospects are still a gamble to trade for.

[DHonks]

I still think he's going to wind up with a career like a poor man's Sheffield. He'll have some very good years, but he'll be traded over and over, whenever he starts to complain about teams not winning and being treated poorly.

[Patrick425]

This is why I will never have a problem trading prospects for proven talent when your team has a realistic shot at the playoffs.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

I still think he's going to wind up with a career like a poor man's Sheffield. He'll have some very good years, but he'll be traded over and over, whenever he starts to complain about teams not winning and being treated poorly.

 

 

I don't think he ends up anywhere close to Sheffield career wise. Sheffield is a one percenter in MLB stats over the course of his career. I just don't see his good years matching up with Sheffields.

[owbc]

It was a lost season for Lawrie but he's still only 23. I'm not sure what the problem is, but he has plenty of time to straighten things out. That being said, it looks like the Brewers knew better when Lawrie was giving them trouble about minor league promotions.

[jjfanec]

It was a lost season for Lawrie but he's still only 23. I'm not sure what the problem is, but he has plenty of time to straighten things out.

 

This year was a lost year but his hitting isnt terribly far off what he did last year. His value last year was in his defense but many felt those numbers were inflated quite a bit. He definitely has time to straighten things out but two years in a row he is a low .700 OPS guy and until he got to Vegas (which is a notoriously hitters friendly league) he was only a high .700 OPS guy in the minors.

 

So his OPS was 18th out 21 3b (with over 400 AB) in 2012. This year is 20th out of 24. Considering his bat not his glove was his strong suit those numbers are pretty surprising

[Bikeage77]

The one thing I will say about Lawrie is that he leads the league in stupid party pictures.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'll be honest but I really wouldn't be surprised if Lawrie's career winds up looking similar to Aramis Ramirez's. Sketchy with show of talent in the early years and then some solid/great years and oft injured years. We lost a good player. And there's no doubt in my mind Lawrie will put his talent through a season that sees 7+ in WAR Maybe for a couple/few seasons. Both of the last two seasons he had his OPS around .755 before seeing it tail off to end each season. Though 2012 was likely due to injury, this season it may have been due to lack of interest down the stretch.

I don't know what it is, but there's payday years coming up. That I'm sure will mature him up. Having an agent sit you down and show you the money he could be staring at with this line of numbers vs what Lawrie is showing...Yeah A great 16month stretch should just about do it in 2016/2017.

[endaround]

Ramirez's first full year he hit .300/.350/.536. He had a poor second full year. And then he hit like Ramirez for the rest of his career when healthy. Lawrie hit for power for a few months in 2011; didn't before and hasn't since. Lawrie looks to be a below average starter.

[jjfanec]

Both of the last two seasons he had his OPS around .755 before seeing it tail off to end each season. Though 2012 was likely due to injury, this season it may have been due to lack of interest down the stretch.

 

I dont think you really followed Lawrie's season if you think it was a lack of interest down the stretch that caused him to struggle. He was horrible the first half of the year. He was barely breaking an OPS of .600 for a while. He had one hot month and then fell back.

 

Also you cant discount injuries because they seem to be a norm of his time in the majors. He has missed significant time each year.

[SenatorShriv]

I could see a Gomez like trajectory. Lawrie seems really immature and might not actually be ready for the MLB yet. His raw talent says that he should be there, but the numbers aren't showing up yet. I could see him having a few monster years between the ages of 25 - 30.

 

Regardless of what happens in the future, even if he puts together a few All Star seasons, I think that this was a good trade for the Brewers and I would do it again in a heartbeat.

[HiAndTight]

I could see a Gomez like trajectory. Lawrie seems really immature and might not actually be ready for the MLB yet. His raw talent says that he should be there, but the numbers aren't showing up yet. I could see him having a few monster years between the ages of 25 - 30.

 

Regardless of what happens in the future, even if he puts together a few All Star seasons, I think that this was a good trade for the Brewers and I would do it again in a heartbeat.

 

 

 

I wouldn't. Just because I have no use for soft tossing control pitchers as they're much more likely to struggle in the post-season. And it's even worse when you figure in Marcum's injury history.

 

There's no way I'd trade a top 20-25 prospect or top 40 prospect for that matter for a guy with Marcum's stuff again. I hated that trade the first time around and I hate it now.