Article: Evaluating the Hunter Renfroe Trade, Way Too Soon

[Harold Hutchison]

Fifteen games is, in baseball terms, practically nothing. It’s less than 10 percent of a season. It’s enough to affect many fans’ feelings about offseason moves, though. In that spirit, let’s take a look at the Hunter Renfroe trade.

Image courtesy of © Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers had a tough decision to make around the non-tender deadline just prior to the Winter Meetings, and they elected to pull the trigger on a trade that would give them some budgetary flexibility and bolster their pitching depth, at the expense of a powerful bat.

Los Angeles Angels Received
OF Hunter Renfroe

Milwaukee Brewers Received
RHP Janson Junk
RHP Elvis Peguero
LHP Adam Seminaris

The Brewers embarked upon the 2022-2023 offseason with multiple prospects in the outfield, including Garrett Mitchell, who performed well in September 2022; Joey Wiemer, who showed power, speed, and defense in a rapid climb after being drafted in the fourth round of the truncated 2020 MLB Draft; and Sal Frelick, the team’s 2021 first-round pick. Mitchell, Frelick, and Wiemer were all in the Top 101 prospect list Baseball Prospectus issued prior to the 2023 season.

Given the proximity of all three players to the big leagues, the organization needed to make some room. In the meantime, with the departures of Brent Suter, Brad Boxberger, Trevor Gott, and Taylor Rogers, there was a need for some new bullpen arms. The Angels were looking for a corner outfielder to upgrade from Jo Adell, their disappointing former top prospect. The deal with the Angels helped the Brewers address both needs, and let the Angels move Taylor Ward to left with Renfroe taking over in right.
Assuming Christian Yelich moved to being the primary designated hitter and Tyrone Taylor became the fourth outfielder, the Brewers had space for all of their prospects, and all five of the Crew’s outfielders on the MLB roster could play at least a decent center field. That’s some pretty enviable depth on a 26-man roster.

Then came the Kolten Wong trade, and Jesse Winker became the primary DH. That re-formed the outfield logjam that had been cleared by the Renfroe trade. Ultimately, Luis Urías and Taylor going on the injured list led to Mitchell and Wiemer seeing plenty of time in Milwaukee, while Frelick started 2023 at Triple-A Nashville.

Going into Saturday’s game, Wiemer and Mitchell had each posted 0.6 WAR, according to Baseball-Reference, tied with Willy Adames. That’s an outstanding pace this early in the season, especially with Wiemer’s struggles at the plate. Frelick is scuffling a little in Nashville.

In Los Angeles, Renfroe has produced a .937 OPS and boasts his best walk rate since 2019, delivering 0.5 WAR for the Angels. Junk, Peguero, and Seminaris are all in the minors, with Junk coming up to replace Brandon Woodruff after the Brewers’ co-ace went on the injured list, too.

When one considers that the Brewers are 10-5 after a loss to the Padres Saturday, while the Angels were 7-6 going into Saturday, things have worked out reasonably well for the Brewers in this deal over the short term–albeit not perfectly, given Wiemer’s struggles to hit for average at the MLB level in a very small sample.

But trades don’t just have a short-term outlook. Take, for instance, the deal in the 2015-2016 offseason wherein the Brewers traded Adam Lind to the Mariners for three pitchers who hadn’t even gone to full-season ball. The Mariners got one year of decent production (Lind had an OPS+ of 94), but Freddy Peralta made his Brewers debut in 2018, and since then, he’s been third fiddle to Corbin Burnes and Woodruff in the rotation.

Similarly, the Josh Hader trade of last year, while roundly panned given the struggles of Rogers and how Dinelson Lamet ended up a waiver wire claim by the Rockies, saw the Brewers flip outfielder Esteury Ruiz for William Contreras, Joel Payamps, and Justin Yeager in a three-team deal this offseason, and Contreras has been producing well so far for the Brewers, while Payamps has been decent in the lower tier of the Crew’s bullpen hierarchy.

Will Renfroe stay with the Angels? If so, this deal will look better for the Angels, because he will provide more production for them. Will he walk? If so, the Angels could find themselves watching Junk, Peguero, and Seminaris contribute to Milwaukee’s success for years to come, while the Crew’s young outfielders shine.

The short version of all this is: we have a long way to go until we can really evaluate the Hunter Renfroe deal. It seems to be working for both teams so far, but there’s a lot of time to go before the full effects of the deal this season are known, not to mention what it means in future years.

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[Frisbee Slider]

Renfroe went 0-3 with 2 K today, lowering his OPS to .869. 

Brewers win the trade.

[Frisbee Slider]

If any of the guys we received from the trade become above average, I will be fine with the trade. We did not need Renfroe and his salary in 2023 or beyond.

[Roderick]

Brewers saving $12M Renfroe 2023 money, while opening up space for a youngster.  Renfroe is worth $12M in today's market, but for the Brewers a no-brainer with the min.wage options coming up.  Now I assume they have some wiggle room for trading deadline pickup if they need to spend some money for it.

[wallus]

With the good start he's had, he only has 0.6 WAR compared to 0.5 for Wiemer.