What a Jackson Chourio Contract Extension is Likely to Look Like

[Jake McKibbin]

Ken Rosenthal dropped a bomb on the Brewers faithful on Tuesday, reporting that Jackson Chourio had engaged in extension talks with the Crew after just a handful of Triple-A at-bats. Extending their most hyped prospect of this century would be a bold move, but what the contract might look like is a topic of wide discourse. Here's where the sides could find common ground.

Image courtesy of © Curt Hogg / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

With only 21 at bats in Triple A, Jackson Chourio was far from a lock to reach MLB right away this spring. This deal could be a monumental trendsetter. Due to the risk of injury and uncertainty around performance against advanced pitching, the Brewers have a chance to secure a long-term contract that benefits both themselves and Chourio immensely.

At just 19 years old, Chourio has the potential to be earning top dollar for several years more than most. He could be a free agent by the time he's 26 years old, with his prime years just beginning, something that will play a big role here. He has the potential of securing long-term financial security for himself and his family here, with the Brewers buying out his first couple years of free agency. He might still be able to sign a nine-figure deal by the end of his first contract. His ceiling could make him the best-paid player in the game at that point, but his concern will be what happens in the event of injury or if he doesn't translate well to the majors, as many have done before. His age gives him every chance to cover all his bases, but there are a few considerations.

The Contract
There are some large numbers being bandied about as things stand, but it's important to remember the arbitration process in these discussions. For his first three years, Chourio would earn a total of $2.25 million or so, barring bonuses, followed by three arbitration years wherein, at his very ceiling, he may earn around $60 million dollars. So, should he hypothetically be guaranteed to reach his best form and play non-stop over the next six seasons, even then, his value would barely exceed $60 million. Given the uncertainty surrounding injury, form and adaptation to the highest level of the sport, to guarantee an amount for those six years will be significantly less.

Rosenthal cited the six-year, $50-million deal of Luis Robert, Jr., and the eight-year $100-million deal of Ronald Acuna, Jr. as good comparisons. However, given the way the market has moved on and the reports that the deal is expected be eight years in guaranteed length, a more apt comparison is somewhere between Acuña's and Corbin Carroll's deal with the Diamondbacks (eight years, $111 million). Given that Acuña earned his contract (considered remarkably team-friendly) after winning the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year Award, the deal probably won't reach nine figures, but it should be in the same ballpark.

Estimating based on Chourio getting $50 million throughout his team-controlled first six years, adding two extra years at a salary of $20-25 million would leave all sides relatively happy, as well as giving Chourio a chance to be a free agent at 28. It may be a little high for the risks Milwaukee would be taking on, and it's possible that they offer something in the $80 million range over eight years instead--probably with a chunky team option for an extra year. All told, nine years in the $115-million range wouldn't be a surprise at all for a player with the raw power, hit tool, defensive coverage and speed that this potential phenom possesses.

The Risks for Milwaukee
As much as a large contract like this seems fair, it's important to recognize the gamble the Brewers are taking with Chourio in this case. He still chases more than you would like for a major-league player, although there is hope he can continue his development and access even more in-game power as he refines his approach. While his minor-league statistics have been extraordinary for his age, they haven’t been as impressive without that mental adjustment. That’s not to dampen the hype, but it would be remiss not to accept that Chourio isn’t quite putting up the type of numbers that some of the other recent über-prospects have managed in their brief stays in the minors. The habitual chases outside the zone, which have led to poorer contact than he's capable of at times, will likely lessen with experience, and compensated with the improved bat-to-ball skills he's already demonstrated and inevitable physical development, the sky truly is the limit here.

There have been many prospects who failed to meet their expectations. Keston Hiura (particularly as a hit-over-power prospect) is a prime example of struggling to adjust his bat to major-league pitching. It’s more of a lottery than many can imagine. Yet, a frugal organization like the Brewers wouldn’t be talking about such a gamble unless they had supreme confidence in his ability. Their actions indicate perhaps injury is the only thing standing in Chourio’s way.

The end price offered and/or accepted will likely have conditions and tweaks in it to make both sides happy, but make no mistake, it’s very possible the Brewers can get this deal done. Then, we can all hope to see the rise of a future Hall of Famer for an extended period of time, on a team-friendly deal that allows other aspects of their roster to be bolstered. Given the departures of Brandon Woodruff and (potentially) Corbin Burnes, the Brewers most recent stars, it makes a lot of sense. They need to take a gamble on Chourio. Only time will tell whether they win the bet.

How big would you be willing to go for Chourio? Lay out your proposal or prediction in the comments.

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[SF70]

I think you might have nailed the contract. Hoping for 2 option years though, say a total of $145M.

[Jake McKibbin]

11 minutes ago, SF70 said:

I think you might have nailed the contract. Hoping for 2 option years though, say a total of $145M.

It should be around that ballpark, but depends entirely on front office attitudes and Chourios too. To get a cheap contract requires risk on the teams part, and waiting a year could be critical either way.

Two option years would probably work too, as long as Jackson is in his 20's as a FA I think he'll see a huge upside possibility for a long contract after this.

The other thing is how his attitude plays out. There's probably hope that he'll be more grounded than Tati's or Franco but we really can't know for sure